Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #payroll

Most recents (24)

We’ve seen the pace of #payroll gains decelerate to roughly the monthly trend pace from the last expansion; consensus has been waiting for this moment and expected a 195,000 job gain in May, but the data printed considerably stronger at 339,000 #jobs gained.
The three-month moving average of #nonfarm payrolls sits at 283,000, down from 334,000 jobs at the start of the year, but what the #LaborMarket imbalance needs is more supply and more slack.
The #unemployment rate ticked up to 3.65%, close to its 12-month average level, and average hourly #earnings (a volatile figure) gained 0.33% month-over-month and 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Read 14 tweets
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
#FederalReserve Image
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n Image
The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
3/n Image
Read 15 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
Read 17 tweets
In testimony before #Congress yesterday, @federalreserve #ChairPowell unsurprisingly displayed resolve that the central bank’s fight to return inflation closer to its 2% target is unfinished and that the historical record suggests that relenting too soon would be a mistake.
Chair #Powell signaled more rate hikes and a higher terminal rate than previous #Fed projections, and an openness to adjust the pace of rate hikes depending on the totality of the data.
With the strength recently witnessed in the #LaborMarket data, in various #inflation measures and in #economic growth readings more generally, this resolve by policymakers would seem to be not only required, but critical to returning inflation to more normal levels.
Read 9 tweets
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Read 8 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport was a clear indication that #LaborMarket dynamics are softening. For example, the 3-mo. moving average of nonfarm #payroll growth sits at 247k jobs, after a higher-than-expected print of 223k jobs for Dec, in contrast to 2022’s average mo. #job gain of 375k.
We have witnessed a marked deterioration in temporary help services in recent months, and a slowing in #wage growth in December, which both highlight the relative slowdown in the labor #market overall, even as the #services sector remains quite buoyant.
Yet, while the softening trend is clear, and the momentum of #hiring is slowing in a significant way, it is equally clear that we are far from what could be described as a demand-reducing weakening of #labor and #wage conditions.
Read 16 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport revealed an #economy that is producing #jobs at a slower pace than it has over the prior several months.
That said, a historic number of jobs have been created in this recovery since the fall of 2020, so a slowing in the pace of #growth isn’t unexpected.
Even with today’s somewhat slower rate of #hiring at 315,000 jobs for the month of August, the 3-month and 6-month average of #payroll gains has been 378,000 and 381,000 jobs, respectively, which is clearly indicative of slowing today from a point of strength.
Read 12 tweets
The headline #inflation data today moderated a bit on the back of falling #gasoline prices, but it’s still running at a worryingly high rate.
Over time, we think the slowdown in #economic growth, the continuation of the @federalreserve’s assertive #HikingCycle and the possibility of resolution with several persistent supply chain issues should influence broad #inflation lower.
Still, while #CorePCE inflation (the #Fed’s favored measure) is likely to moderate in the coming months, it’ll still remain well-above the Fed’s 2% #inflation target.
Read 15 tweets
The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
Read 11 tweets
September witnessed a somewhat disappointing nonfarm #payroll gain of 194,000 jobs, which was weaker than the upwardly revised August gain of 365,000 and was well below #economists’ consensus estimates of nearly 490,000 jobs.
Clearly, there are significant #labor supply issues limiting the pace of recovery. Further, the #unemployment rate declined meaningfully, from 5.2% to 4.8% in Sept, and average hourly #earnings saw gains of 0.62% m-o-m, which brings the measure to 4.58% greater on a y-o-y basis.
The most interesting part of today’s #JobsReport, and much of the other recent #economic/corporate data, is that it’s the supply of resources that’s creating systemic pricing pressure, as well as consequently dulling growth of an #economy not lacking demand in virtually any area.
Read 11 tweets
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here:…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
Read 10 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 05/18/2021…
To make particles flow more efficiently, put an obstacle in their way…

Researchers find order in a process previously assumed to be random…

#order #randomness
Read 10 tweets
We saw a remarkable upside surprise in the #JobsReport today, as a 2.5 million job gain underscored the fact that people are getting back to work and we’re carving out a bottom in the #labor #market.
Indeed, we may well find that the #unemployment rate peaked at less than 15% in April, since May’s data revealed a decline to just over 13%.
Further, today’s numbers were heartening in many ways, as #job gains in leisure and hospitality, #retail, and the #construction sectors, of 1.24 million, 368,000 and 464,000, respectively, suggest those businesses in which activity had slowed dramatically are bouncing back.
Read 6 tweets
Some Thoughts on the #PPPloans and other small business stimulus now that the funds have dried up (hopefully temporarily). Some overriding thoughts I have are 1. The method and some of the issues of getting funds out, 2. The purpose of the funds, and 3. Where we go from here. 1/x
On the methodology of the #PaycheckProtectionProgram I know given the data out there that loans seemed skewed towards larger "small" businesses. I think that stems from a number of reasons. The first being just how banks work. 2/x
Banks are generally fairly conservative, risk adverse institutions- particularly post the banking collapse in 2008/2009. Having worked in that industry during that time period, I got to see the impact of this collapse and how banks changed as a result. 3/x
Read 32 tweets
Not to root for state or CB intervention, with #coronavirus, its inevitability must be faced. So how to make it the least damaging and not allow it to become entrenched in the system and lead to another decade of distortion & waste like post-#GFC? 1/x
Problem is to try to avoid the failure of otw viable firms because of disruptions due to the global health emergency - & also to spare their employees from ruin. Flooding money into financial markets is NOT the answer, #JayPowell! Blind fiscal expansion, neither, #DonaldTrump 2/x
Here's the kernel of an idea. Finmarkets are desperate for 'safe assets'. nominal yields are trifling; real ones negative. S-o-o, launch a special series of #Treasury bonds to sate the market's hunger & halt the potentially disastrous collapse in yields. 3/x
Read 11 tweets
Overall, despite modest disappointment in goods-producing sector hiring (outside of construction, where warmer weather and solid #housing sector dynamics kept #job growth strong), the #employment report has become dependably positive in recent years. Image
That’s particularly the case given the 23 million new #jobs that have been created over the past decade, the very tight #labor market conditions and a late-Thanksgiving Day holiday that can often lead to flattering November #payroll data at the expense of December. Image
This hiring dynamic, alongside slowly increasing levels of average hourly earnings (not the traditional #wage pressure for this point in the #economic cycle), suggests that the #Fed’s stance on full employment and price stability appears to be in a good place today.
Read 3 tweets
Today’s headline #payroll gain of 266,000 was impressive, even when accounting for the #jobs added back after the end of GM’s strike, and overall #wages continue to look decent, although not concerning for inflation. Image
On #wages, average hourly #earnings increased by 0.25% month-over-month and 3.14% year-over-year, which keep wages in a broadly rising trend, and we think that this has drawn many into the #labor force in recent months. Image
Finally, we think the overall data picture keeps the @federalreserve on hold from any #policy #rate changes for an extended period of time, and perhaps even for all of 2020.
Read 3 tweets
Today’s much anticipated #employment report came close to consensus at 136K jobs gained, 114K of which were private sector, although #wage rate gains disappointed a bit with average hourly earnings declining over the month, the #unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, a 50-year low.
While recent survey data has appeared more disappointing (ISM) and that warrants careful observation, we like to focus on hard data: #payroll figures represent what companies are actually doing and provide some clarity on an otherwise ambiguous set of #economic signals.
We think the @federalreserve is likely to move rates lower at least another time this year to continue its efforts to sustain the #economic cycle. The #Fed will probably seek to trim the policy rate range another 25 bps in October, leaving December open for debate.
Read 3 tweets
Today’s #payroll gains of 130,000 jobs (96,000 private payroll) came in weaker than expectations, but overall the labor #market still remains solid, and August data is frequently revised higher in subsequent months.
Further, while this weakness is understandable in the context of a slowing #manufacturing sector and #trade war uncertainty, it should not be seen as a portent of #recession, which we think unlikely at this time.
Finally, we think the #Fed will lower policy rates at least another 25 bps at its September meeting, and probably again at either its October or December meetings. Another two #policy rate cuts would bring rates closer to equilibrium.
Read 3 tweets
Today’s #payroll data, coming in at 263k, with decent wage gains, was very strong overall and continues to underscore that there is more dynamism to the U.S. #economy today than many appear willing to admit.
Indeed, we’ve witnessed a broad array of #wage growth measures accelerate since 2014, to levels that cannot be considered excessively low. Image
In theory, lack of labor market slack should lead to slowing #job growth going forward, and while it ultimately may be the case, the #labor market expansions since 1960 suggest that even at full employment job growth can continue, as long as economic growth holds up.
Read 3 tweets
Though today’s #payroll report printed weaker than expected, we nevertheless think that the U.S. #economy is witnessing a transformation that is dramatic and persistent, and it is one that doesn’t fit neatly into the models drawn from previous experience.
In fact, the shift in focus from #manufacturing employment to service-sector #employment continues apace longer term, and at 3.4%, we’re beginning to see some decent earnings growth.
Today’s data won’t alter the #Fed’s “patient and flexible” mantra, and the data still allows the Fed a good deal of time before needing to decide on whether it can get another #rate hike in this year, or not, but likely not at this stage.
Read 6 tweets
Today’s #payroll data printed at a very strong 312k, with solid upward revisions for October and November, which should be applauded by the #Fed, but not cut off prematurely with further restrictive policy.
In fact, we think a slowing global #economy, trade issues, debt-encumbrances, and #financial liquidity-drawdowns are providing all the restriction required to any overheating risk, and the Fed shouldn’t add to this with added policy hikes.
This would provide the central bank with the time to reevaluate the #economic data coming in, which is conflicting, with many segments of the economy that are sensitive to interest rates displaying considerable weakness. Time, to be #data-dependent, is what’s needed now.
Read 3 tweets
Despite a modestly lower headline than expected, and noise from Hurricane Florence, today’s #payroll data continued the trend of remarkably strong labor #markets, particularly when upward revisions and a longer-term view are considered.
Yet, long-term interest rates will react to “the #shark closest to the boat,” which at this point is higher #wages, as this has historically transmitted into significantly higher inflation over time.
But while wage gains are decent today, we think they’re less likely to result in much higher #inflation, unless corporate pricing power shifts meaningfully higher. That’s partly because more of those #wages are likely to be saved, and also due to secular headwinds to inflation. Image
Read 5 tweets
Despite a modestly weaker headline #payroll print of 157,000 jobs gained, which introduces a bit of perspective over where we might be headed, the revised three-month average payroll gain resides at a very strong 224,000 jobs.
This expansion has witnessed a remarkable consistency in the pace of #jobgrowth, but we believe it is bound to slow as we head into next year, both because of how far we have already come, and because #policy and growth prospects may become harder next year. Image
We will continue to watch #wages, core #inflation, and particularly core PCE data from here, and will keep a keen eye on corporate sentiment readings, as the #Fed’s job is more challenging now that its policy goals have been clearly met and the economy continues to grow strongly.
Read 3 tweets

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