Thread by @Noahpinion

Greetings, my fellow Americans? Why is our economy doing so well right now? It's an intriguing mystery.

bloomberg.com/view/articles/…

Maybe it's because interest rates are low!

Or maybe it's because federal government deficits are rising again?

But if it's aggregate demand, shouldn't we be seeing a little more inflation?

And if this boom is just pent-up demand from the Great Recession, why don't we see more housing starts?

Maybe it's a supply-side boom? Did Trump's tax cuts make America slightly greater?

Or maybe (heh heh) it's a (heh heh heh) positive technology shock!

(sorry, something in my throat there)

Another possibility is that this boom is driven by ANIMAL SPIRITS. Confidence is up up up!

Many indicators agree: Consumers and businesses are feeling GREAT.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Small business confidence is at an all-time high too!

nfib.com/surveys/small-…

If sentiment is the driver of the current boom...watch out. Sentiment has a way of reverting to the mean.

If sentiment reverts, the huge pile of corporate debt we've been accumulating could be in trouble.

bloomberg.com/view/articles/…

But in fact, there's one more possibility - and this is the one we should hope is true.

Maybe BOOMS DON'T REALLY EXIST AT ALL.

Maybe this is just how the economy works when there's nothing around to screw it up!

If booms aren't real, or if this isn't one of them, that's the best possible outcome, because it means the current boom can go on for a long, long time.

Let's hope it does.

(end)