Thread by @team3dstocks

Funny how you never notice time fly by while studying your obsession.. good night folks.

#SeeYallInAFewHours

Funny thing is i was so excited about today that I was up all night planning how i was gonna manage risk on frontside of $NBEV $TLRY etc today, went to bed at 5am, so 2hrs of sleep. Safe 2 say the adjustments paid off. Risky 2 trade with poor sleep but i wasnt gonna miss this top

It was on that night that I decided that i was gonna murder $NBEV no matter what. I knew it was gonna be a hard fight, so I literally stayed up for HOURS optimizing only ONE thing:

Risk management

I knew that as LONG as i took care of that, rest would take care of itself

Here are the 3 BIGGEST things that SAVED me on this cunt stock $NBEV:

# 1 STARTERS!!!!!

I cant stress this enough. The goal of starters is NOT to make money!!! it is to give u CUSHION so that when u SLAM size at KEY levels, ur avg is HIGHER. and when wrong, ur loss is SMALLER

#2 the fucking TAPE!!! I say this all the time, I DO NOT EVEN PRESS SHORT, until i fucking see level 2/Tape confirmation. PERIOD!!! I dont care if it's 1/20th starters or max size bid slams. If the L2/Tape doesnt confirm what should happen on the CHART, i DONT SHORT !!!

A flag is only a flag AFTER it breaks out. A trendbreak is only a trendbreak AFTER it breaks. A reversal is only a reversal AFTER it reverses. in short, i LOVE the chart, but it is a LAGGING indicator. It can fake u out 1000 times. But LIQUIDITY (Level2/Tape) CANNOT lie.

What do i mean? simple. If a $5 stock needs let's say a 100K market order to go up 10 cents. and the chart is as BULLISH as it gets, but someone puts a REAL 500K sell order at $5.00. what the FUCK do u think MUST happen before the stock breaks above $5?

The stock will NOT move up until that order gets filled or cancelled. PERIOD. at that point, fuck the chart, fuck the fundamentals, fuck all u know. the ONLY thing that matters at that point, is that 500K seller on the offer. he doesnt move, the stock DOES NOT move up.

the chart will only show u the stock stuck at $5. but u will have NO clue WHY it's stuck. so while u're waiting for confirmation, i already have my starter on. My risk is not the chart or HOD at that point. my risk is that fucking seller that i hope to god doesnt get filled

Now IF he gets filled, after posting all that bluff size, i simply do the math. thats fucking $5 * 500K. Thats fucking $2.5M. what does that tell u? it means someone had enough conviction & BP to fill that order, knowing it will hurt their avg. I REFUSE TO FIGHT THAT KINDA MONEY

So, i simply cut my starter & get the FUCK out, while others are thinking "but there's resistance on the chart tho". FUCK resistance. a 500K ss order was just filled. I want NO parts of this. that shortseller is now even MORE underwater & will have to cover at LEAST 500K soon.

Now lets say the reverse happens. Some big whale tries to fill the seller, slams 500K market order, but fails, as ANOTHER 500K order gets put right back on the offer. Now that buyer is FUCKED. he RUINED his average by adding 500K at $5, & it did nothing. & the bids are thining up

Now he's facing a dilemna. He ruined his avg, & he now has 2 much size, & bids are thinning up (it'll be hard 2 unwind his long). So final plan? he tries 2 post FAKE liquidity to stop bulls from selling. so he posts a HUGE bid at $4.90. praying to sweet baby jesus no one fills it

Now this is the part where i get HORNY. fuck the chart at that point. the ONLY thing that matters now, is that 500K sell order, and that HUGE 4.90 bid. one has to give. If his bid gets taken out, IM ALL THE FUCK IN. slamming the bid (i can cover into the 500K seller if im wrong)

Once his final "desperation" bluff bid is taken out, let's say it was 400K shares, guess what. he now has at LEAST 900K shares he has to dump soon, his avg is even WORSE now (again), & the bids were already thinning up. What do u think will happen now that he's bagged 900K long?

The stock will flush STUPID hard as he tries to sell quickly. that's when u see that HUGE red bar on the chart, w/ volume. Other breakout chasers also bail, & FOMO shorts also pile in, adding MORE supply. The chart breaks, the trend breaks, & we get a HUGE flush as longs bail

thats when i usually comment to the boys in the chat & say dumb shit like "im up stupid!" or "im retiring" etc. But the story is not over, remember that huge shortseller? what does he have to do now that the stock is down 10%? he now has to COVER. take profits. so do other shorts

and what about dip buyers? they also have FOMO & wanna buy the dip (demand>supply). So i check the chart for key areas or MA support etc, & i WAIT for L2 to CONFIRM an exit. once I see TOO many bids, that are NOT moving, then that CONFIRMS the support, so i prepare covers & bail

There's obviously more 2 this, but moral of the story, LIQUIDITY (supply/demand imbalances) move stocks. PERIOD. Ask ANY whale who trades SIZE & they'll tell u the same. my only goal is to be on the side of the bigger money. Sorry, not sorry 4 the rant. btw $NBEV is at $9+ lol

Alright done. Told my daughter i'd kill the bee flying in the kitchen "in a sec". and it's been an hr.

I hope my thought process helped. Again, this is just how I trade/manage risk. Ive met GREAT traders who dont use L2, hot keys, or scale etc. Everyone has their edge. find urs