Thread by @BrazilBrian

Well, that’s it. Brazil’s Revolution of 2018. It happened at the ballot box but the effects will be just as dramatic as an armed putsch.

It wasn’t just a “right-wing wave.” It was a torch-bearing, full-throated, take-no-prisoners uprising against establishment that led Brazil into its worst economic collapse in 100+ years while indulging in massive corruption & failing to stop horrifying crime

It makes sense. Anti-establishment wave is sweeping the world, and Brazil is western democracy that arguably suffered most in recent years. Perfect environment for outsider: americasquarterly.org/content/system…

It’s goodbye to generation of politicians that dominated Brazil since democracy returned in 1985. Michel Temer, Marina Silva, Dilma: gone. Lula may spend rest of life in jail or house arrest. FHC now in some respects a stranger within his own party.

So all eyes now turn to Jair Bolsonaro. He will have tremendous power. What will he do w/ it?. I studied him for 2+ years, interviewed him & family. I made my best forecast here: americasquarterly.org/content/what-e…

Since I wrote this 3 wks ago, some new signs Bolsonaro may not give market what it wants (see interview with @FR_BSB ). But I still think you'll see some pension reform, fiscal sanity, privatizations. Economy could do very well in 2019.

I remain fearful of what Bolsonaro will do to democracy & its norms, & rights of vulnerable minorities (including blacks, LGBT, political opponents, more).

This isn’t hysteria. It’s merely listening to what he has said again & again & again. Whether 1991 or 10 days ago.

After expressing these fears, I got - polite, proper- pushback from some close to Bolsonaro, who say he will respect Constitution. Others assure me Brazil's institutions much stronger than I give them credit.

I said look - I hope I’m wrong. If so I’ll be the first to admit it.

Enfim: Starting tonight, we get to see how he sounds not as candidate, but president-elect. Congratulations to @jairbolsonaro, next president of world's 5th biggest country. The world will be watching.