Thread by @BrazilBrian

I don't think we're talking enough about how Brazil's military will react to Lula's 2022 candidacy. In short, they're going to freak out - with unpredictable consequences for Brazilian democracy. Thread

First, a little history. Military & PT got along OK for years but everything changed with creation of National Truth Commission in 2010s to investigate dictatorship human rights abuses. Then recession & Lava Jato. By 2016 military was arguably most anti-PT org in Brazil

In 2018, on eve of Supreme Court ruling involving Lula, former Army chief sent tweets implicitly threatening military intervention if court ruled in his favor. The general recently disclosed in book that active-duty generals helped him write the tweets

jovempan.com.br/programas/jorn…

Today, under Bolsonaro, Brazilian military is more involved in politics than any point since democracy returned in '85. They hold 9 of 23 Cabinet positions, thousands of positions in federal bureaucracy, leadership of Petrobras and much more

Brazil's generals say they're committed to democracy. Brazil's president is not. He often expresses nostalgia for dictatorship, including this Feb speech *to military cadets*: "If it depended on me, we wouldn't be living in this system (of government)."

noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultim…

Monday's Court decision allowing Lula to run in 2022 hit like a bomb in Armed Forces. Leadership has been mostly quiet this time, but retired generals continue to speak of military intervention (see below from Folha). Low & middle ranks are apoplectic

Bottom line: It is not unthinkable that Brazil's military could stage "self-coup" or other action to strengthen Bolsonaro if they think Lula return is imminent. Armed Forces were *already* deeply involved in this govt & now their ultimate nightmare has come back. You do the math

Much will depend on polls, on how conciliatory Lula is in messaging & also on Bolsonaro's performance -- if he continues to fail on pandemic & approval falls, they may be less hesitant to change. Military loyalty to JB is not absolute, as I wrote last yr americasquarterly.org/article/its-co…

PS anybody interpreting this as veiled argument against Lula’s candidacy is wrong. Any Brazilian should be able to run for office without fearing military intervention. That’s democracy