I don't think we're talking enough about how Brazil's military will react to Lula's 2022 candidacy. In short, they're going to freak out - with unpredictable consequences for Brazilian democracy. Thread
First, a little history. Military & PT got along OK for years but everything changed with creation of National Truth Commission in 2010s to investigate dictatorship human rights abuses. Then recession & Lava Jato. By 2016 military was arguably most anti-PT org in Brazil
In 2018, on eve of Supreme Court ruling involving Lula, former Army chief sent tweets implicitly threatening military intervention if court ruled in his favor. The general recently disclosed in book that active-duty generals helped him write the tweets
If you have ever taken the Buquebus to Colonia, continued on bus to Montevideo & wandered its streets, & generally pondered Uruguay through a porteño looking glass -- "the B-side of the River Plate," Pedro Mairal calls it -- then you will adore this translation out in July
If you haven't done any of these things, it may be slightly bewildering - but still a good book about the delirium of middle-aged writers....
My favorite passage, a counter to everyone (including myself) who would overly romanticize Uruguay:
"There is something like a Bermuda Triangle here, it's not to be underestimated... especially if you come thinking it's like the countryside in Argentina only everybody's good...
It's Pele's 80th birthday and I wanted to share a short story which I think gets beyond the celebrity and tells you something about the man - who remains surprisingly little-known in Brazil & elsewhere
In 2013 I was invited to help Pele write a book for release at Brazil's World Cup the following year.
Now, I've "ghost-authored" a few books, including with 2 presidents. Kept close relationships with all of them.
But not Pelé. Truth is, I don't think he ever trusted me.
Why not? I think over the years Pele was burned by almost every adult he met. That kind of celebrity -he was one of world's most famous 2-3 people for decades - makes people INSANE. (I saw it) He lost all his $$ twice to people he trusted. At some point I think he shut down
"It is now commonly admitted that the United States has no Latin American policy, save one of "benign neglect" ... it is clearly impossible to coast along indefinitely. There is not much time left..." (1/2)
... to develop new ideas and make a new approach before events will overtake and "surprise" the State Department."
- Foreign Affairs, APRIL 1973
(Nothing unusual about this lament except the timing. Jesus.)
"To further illustrate my point that Latin America is our political blind spot, you just have to look at the 50th anniversary issue of Foreign Affairs: there was not one article devoted to Latin America. A review of our international political situation ..."
“Once known as “the Switzerland of South America”, because of its high quality of life and its former banking secrecy laws, Uruguay has now become its New Zealand.”
The Brazilian left seems lost. With Bolsonaro’s popularity rising to all-time highs, left spends its days debating whether Stalin (!!) had redeeming qualities & vilifying a 26-year-old congresswoman @tabataamaralsp for deviating from dogma. No new ideas, no new faces except...
... for a governor who is literally a Communist (by party affiliation only, but still 🤦♂️). Polls going back to 80s show only 20-25% of Brazilians consistently identify as leftist, I think they’re at risk of wandering through the desert for a very long time