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Brian Winter Profile picture
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20 Jul, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The biggest mystery in Latin American politics is what Pedro Castillo will do now he's officially elected. Will he be more like Chávez (autocrat who destroys country while "re-founding" it), Evo (resource nationalist, but fiscally sane) or Humala (quick evolution to capitalism)?
Castillo's appointments will tell us a lot about how powerful extremist factions of his party will be. “Right now, we just don’t know which faction of Free Peru will win out,” one analyst told @SimeonTegel

washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/…
Castillo's victory speech last night again emphasized "unity" and "stability." Since election he has struck magnanimous tone -- partly b/c margin was so tight, partly to keep markets from melting down. Many wealthy Peruvians have sent $$ out of country

but BUT -- it's also true Chávez spent his initial months promising democracy and moderation. We just don't know, & Castillo's past statements (potentially closing Congress, mass nationalizations, etc) are more than enough reason to be skeptical. Peru hangs in the balance
For a deep dive on Castillo & his plans, check out this great podcast moderated by my colleague @BrenOBoyle

americasquarterly.org/article/aq-pod…

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More from @BrazilBrian

Brian Winter Profile picture
8 Apr
The data: Brazil is still #2 in vaccines administered among major Latin American countries - behind Chile, which surpasses even US & UK. Numbers are PER-CAPITA
Well this triggered quite the debate, which is understandable given what's happening in Brazil & elsewhere. I originally wanted to stay out of the politics behind this data - because they're complex, involving multiple countries - but now that we're here I have 2 observations
1) EVERY country is frustrated at slow pace of vaccines. But some really are slower than others. So: Leadership matters. Sometimes it comes from a president, sometimes a health minister, sometimes (ahem) from governors. OR from pre-existing capacity built over many decades
Read 4 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
10 Mar
I don't think we're talking enough about how Brazil's military will react to Lula's 2022 candidacy. In short, they're going to freak out - with unpredictable consequences for Brazilian democracy. Thread
First, a little history. Military & PT got along OK for years but everything changed with creation of National Truth Commission in 2010s to investigate dictatorship human rights abuses. Then recession & Lava Jato. By 2016 military was arguably most anti-PT org in Brazil
In 2018, on eve of Supreme Court ruling involving Lula, former Army chief sent tweets implicitly threatening military intervention if court ruled in his favor. The general recently disclosed in book that active-duty generals helped him write the tweets

jovempan.com.br/programas/jorn…
Read 9 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
10 Mar
(Brasilianistas simultaneously reach for Google Translate)

em.com.br/app/noticia/po…
Caralho...
Still my favorite Gilmar Mendes moment:

Read 4 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
7 Mar
If you have ever taken the Buquebus to Colonia, continued on bus to Montevideo & wandered its streets, & generally pondered Uruguay through a porteño looking glass -- "the B-side of the River Plate," Pedro Mairal calls it -- then you will adore this translation out in July Image
If you haven't done any of these things, it may be slightly bewildering - but still a good book about the delirium of middle-aged writers....
My favorite passage, a counter to everyone (including myself) who would overly romanticize Uruguay:

"There is something like a Bermuda Triangle here, it's not to be underestimated... especially if you come thinking it's like the countryside in Argentina only everybody's good...
Read 4 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
23 Oct 20
It's Pele's 80th birthday and I wanted to share a short story which I think gets beyond the celebrity and tells you something about the man - who remains surprisingly little-known in Brazil & elsewhere
In 2013 I was invited to help Pele write a book for release at Brazil's World Cup the following year.

Now, I've "ghost-authored" a few books, including with 2 presidents. Kept close relationships with all of them.

But not Pelé. Truth is, I don't think he ever trusted me.
Why not? I think over the years Pele was burned by almost every adult he met. That kind of celebrity -he was one of world's most famous 2-3 people for decades - makes people INSANE. (I saw it) He lost all his $$ twice to people he trusted. At some point I think he shut down
Read 8 tweets
Brian Winter Profile picture
22 Sep 20
"It is now commonly admitted that the United States has no Latin American policy, save one of "benign neglect" ... it is clearly impossible to coast along indefinitely. There is not much time left..." (1/2)
... to develop new ideas and make a new approach before events will overtake and "surprise" the State Department."

- Foreign Affairs, APRIL 1973

(Nothing unusual about this lament except the timing. Jesus.)

foreignaffairs.com/articles/south…
"To further illustrate my point that Latin America is our political blind spot, you just have to look at the 50th anniversary issue of Foreign Affairs: there was not one article devoted to Latin America. A review of our international political situation ..."
Read 4 tweets

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