Thread by @alphaazeta

I keep hearing people say: "I will sit on the sidelines until BTC starts a bullish trend again". For some reason that sounded like a dangerous approach. So I wrote a web app to check what would happen if you missed some of the best days of performance. Time for a thread 👇

Disclaimer: I've learned to code very recently and would love if someone could check my work (link to git at the end of thread). But it looks like... 👇

1/ For the last 3 years, by missing the top 5 best 3 days, your total return would have been 215%. But the total return for the period was 963%. So, by not being allocated 15 days (1.37% of the time), you would have missed 25% of the returns (assuming compounded returns)

2/ Just missing the top 10 days during the same period would have cost 36% of the returns (135% compared to 961%). 36% doesn't sound like much but remember the compounding effect of missing these!

3/ Even during this bear market, looking from 1/1/2018 until 11/30/2018, missing the top 3 2-day periods would have cost a 56% return.

4/ There's a high opportunity cost to not being invested. Particularly on an asset that moves as quickly as BTC. It's very hard to predict when these moves will happen that's one of the reasons I believe buy-and-hodl is a better approach.

5/ Is this time different? Maybe. But even looking at different time frames, the conclusions are similar. Go ahead and play with the app. 👇

6/ You can play with this web app at:
hodlcalculator.herokuapp.com
and if you'd like to look at the code:
github.com/pxsocs/cryptoa…
I would love to get feedback. I learned to code recently so I'm sure there's a lot to improve