Thread by @koningkarell

$dxy about to top out here or nah? maybe a bit early since it would leave that top on the left in but we'll see.. eurusd has been consolidating for weeks, was waiting for this liq to be taken.

opened half a long on $eurusd here, will add if we get above the black line again.

from 2 days ago.. been consolidating for weeks but failed to make a lower low thus far, if this zone can push it above again I'm assuming it was just a run on liquidity since otherwise it'd be more likely to stay below.

help me out here NY pls.

If grey on the 2h chart above breaks it looks pretty game over for eurusd, so from a r/r perspective this would be max opportunity for longs.. break below / retest would be a short for mitigating the loss for me.

Not much confirmation yet tho, could be dumb catching half here.

Not the reaction I was looking for.. wanted to see a quick rejection and some momentum to confirm, so this plan goes out the window for now, probably too much to ask for on a Friday, sloppy.

Time for weekend.

Could just be another bearish retracement, but we came all the way back up here and haven't really taken out any stops yet so I'm willing to let this run a bit.

Part of the reason I'm feeling semi comfortable trying to let this run is this big divergence between $eurusd and $dxy.

There are some semi equal lows left, but at the same time this whole last $USDJPY run had an equal double bottom as a formation too.

Have to see first what happens on this retracement before we can make some more assumptions.. my if / then scenario below.

View at the moment.. stops moved up, dxy heading onto first target too.

Exactly to script, +25R so far lol.

Little bit of conviction, a plan and some logical targets goes a long way.

$EURUSD

Powell almost ruined my Christmas with his rates.. next time I'ma take some (more) off even if it still goes to plan in the end, rather add it again lower.

Closed 2nd position here for ~9R, moved stops up on the other locking 25R gains total so far.

hmm, retraced all the way back to my stop, bounced and failed to stay above the consolidation again.. didn’t want to touch this position too much but should’ve cut more when it struggled that much, probably left a bit too much profit on the table, stopped out now.

if I was present during London.. meh, oh well.

Overall bias from this thread playing out now.. surely took its time lol.

Still having the same target of the next swing high being taken into that breaker.

$EURUSD