Thread by @Sustainable2050

Reading the draft NL Climate Agreement:
klimaatakkoord.nl/binaries/klima…
Lots of good content! Will share some observations with you here. On page 28 now ;)

The often mentioned changes in residential energy taxes proposed are less than spectacular. Gradual increase in tax on fossil gas: +€0.10/m3 by 2029. Would mean +€150/year for an average household not reducing gas use over that period. But: €65 fixed reduction in energy tax...

.. and reduction of tax on electricity by €0.03/kWh over the same period. That’s -€90/year for an average household.
Net result: zero. Or negative, if the household saves energy.
The shift from electricity to gas is to bring taxes more in line with CO2 emissions.

The draft NL Climate Agreement aims for energy renovation of 1.5 million homes between now and 2030. It expects a share of 50% (low-carbon) heat distribution; that’s a lot! District heating now has a market share of 3%, and still mostly runs on waste heat from fossil processes.

The other half of energy renovations is seen to include heat pumps (50% hybrid, 50% all-electric). To be fair, that’s a lot too, given their present market share of perhaps 1%.

Over the next few years, an approach for renovating homes per housing district (“wijkgericht”) will be elaborated. The idea is that infrastructure changes and home renovations will be coordinated. Takes a lot of preparation, to develop the necessary expertise and instruments.

An open source analysis model will be developed, providing estimates per district of the cost of various (heat) options, both in terms of societal cost and of cost for the end-users in the district. Guidelines will be added for muncipalities to enrich this locally.

A national Expertise Center Heat (ECW) will be formed, to enable municipalities to plan and prepare for the heat transition in a harmonized way. Governments, energy companies, grid companies, renewable energy companies, installers and housing assocations are involved.

Participation of citizens, companies, and NGOs in (decision making on) the heat transition will be organized at the local level. Communication will be two-pronged: national core messages, and local district-oriented communication.

A ‘participation coalition’ of organizations around existing energy cooperatives will offer support to municipalities: @landelijkenmf, @energiesamen, Energieloketten, @hieropgewekt, @buurkracht, @LSAbewoners

Within 3 years, all municipalities, involving stakeholders, will develop their ‘transition vision’, with a timeline for when districts will ‘leave fossil gas’. For districts scheduled to transition before 2030, the municipality will announce...

.. the potential alternative energy infrastructures, with societal costs and benefits and integral costs for end-users. This should result in 1.5 million homes and buildings to undergo an energy renovation between now and 2030 (mostly 2022-2030).

That’s massive. Let’s assume overall investment of e.g. €20,000 for an energy renovation, including insulation, heating equipment, and energy infrastructure. Between 2022 and 2030, an average 150,000 homes per year will then create a €3 billion/year energy renovation industry.

Of course, this is not all *cost*. There are big savings on energy cost, and emissions, of course. For the households, all of this should be done while keeping total cost of housing (including energy) flat. Called ‘woonlastenneutraal’ in the draft Agreement.

Municipalities will announce, at least 8 years ahead, on what date the supply of fossil gas to a certain district will be terminated. This 8-year limit will be re-assessed in 2022, using experience gained in pilot districts.

National government, provinces, and municipalities will, latest by 2020, decide on how to ramp up in case the municipal transition vision plans do not add up to 1.5 million energy renovations by 2030.