How the world works on Dollars.

The single most trusted dominant currency is the US Dollar. It is a requirement for all financial transactions whether its Euro, RMB, SEK, or Yen. There is only one source and that’s the US Fed selling USTs to the world.
When a country such as China wants to import-export goods, they must buy Dollars to enact transactions.
“But what if Sweden and Japan trade???”

Again, you’re not listening. The Dollar is REQUIRED for all transactions under the covers because the US Dollar is the most liquid.

Only the US can run such deficits that allows global trade to operate smoothly.
“But why is the dollar so powerful?”

Simple. Post WW2, there was only 2 powers left. The US & Soviet Union, which went on a global rampage to acquire territory, secure resources, and dominate supply chains. The US won and the Dollar became sole reserve currency. Trust & politics
“What about China?”

China has a LONG term plan to replace the $ called BRI. It’s intent is to secure resources to feed its population and industrial sectors, economics and military interests. They still need roughly 62% of their foreign reserves in $USD to keep the RMB stable.
“What about the Euro??”

The ECB is broke. Plain and simple. They need liquidity injections routinely to avoid total collapse of the Euro. 2012 EU bank crisis had ECB leaders beg the US Fed for $2 trillion. This was used for their junk bond buying purchase to prop up the economy.
“What about Bitcoin???!”

Ah, my recent favorite targets. Charlatans like @MarkYusko and misguided ideologues like @LukeDashjr understand NONE of this thread. Bitcoin needs fiat conversion, access to govt regulated internet, and govt approval for exchanges to operate.
To replace the Dollar, a currency needs to be at the core of product creation(which btc is nowhere near), issuing authority securing supply chains, and politically entangled with decision-makers. Baristas and Social Justice warriors are not at the top of the food chain.
“Gold! That’s the Dollar weakness..”

A wise man told me: “Gold makes logical people illogical”. Gold, oil, commodities are used today to arbitrage trade to gain or retain dollar value. You can’t move gold, there are zero transparent audits of gold, lacks trust for trade.
Without a logical alternative that can substitute the dollar concerning military superiority, trust, liquidity and political economics.... the Dollar will be the reserve currency for the foreseeable future.
Should have added this graphic

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More from @amlivemon

Feb 7
Macro narrative on $BGI

Slowing growth in the US is the dominant narrative. It remains to be seen if we will get inflationary 1Q-2Q data before we get to inflation falling. But there is no debate on growth dropping despite a lagging strong Jobs print in January/Dec.

$BGI – a
deep value small cap does well in lower growth/lower inflation (worst overall market environment) as has been demonstrated this month. The fact it has an oil and gold angle makes it far more robust than most other value plays. The only things outperforming it are classic
defensive sectors (Utes, Staples) and O&G.

BGI can take off in an oil surge given the Canadian economy (and stock market) correlations to oil & gas as well as higher global rates.
BGI can also take off in a gold surge which is triggered by US asset (stocks and bonds)
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Oil I gave a $75 and $100 target when it was $35.

$TWI was $1.50 when I was pounding the table to buy.

$JILL was another 8 multiple.

Now my top position $BGI is time to run again. Here is the breakdown:

BGI was a great performer last year. But the stock was so beaten down a Image
year ago that it is still cheap now. We have it earning $0.79 in calendar 2022 and $1.40 in calendar 2023. So at $4.75/share its trading at a 6 p/e for 2022 and 3.4 p/e for 2023. EBITDA multiples are 5.4x for 2022 and 3.4x in 2023.

Like many formerly distressed equities the Image
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Jan 20
Major funds/banks partner chatter is signaling a market crash. One specifically has obviously one of the best lines into Fed and have a very risky balance sheet so when the Fed waves the caution flag they need to permeate that awareness to at least 100 people in the firm to "slow
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The Fed has finally trapped itself in doom loop of inflation and propping up the equity
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Oct 12, 2021
Biden vax mandates now a threat to national defense
@man_integrated @Halsrethink @mirandadevine

A certain major defense contractor has finally worked through all the legal implications of the executive order mandating the COVID vaccine.

This is what they’ve concluded…
if they don’t have 100% compliance by December 8th, they are at a serious risk of losing all current and future federal contracts if they are not, and also expecting for the company to not only be compliant to but force their tier 2 and 3 subcontractors to be compliant as well.
So a tier three subcontractor who only gets 10 percent of its revenue from a prime two levels up is expected to comply.

Defense officials and contractors are in total panic. There are experienced experts who are couple of years out from retirement who are going to retire rather
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Sep 27, 2021
Democratic Party civil war upends Biden’s Build Back Better timetable

Losing political capital has consequences. The inability to pass legislation is the biggest consequence of all in the Beltway.

The moment that the Afghanistan decision was falling apart in real-time under
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Jayapal and her
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Sep 20, 2021
- 3 bills are in question, Infrastructure(passed by Senate), Reconciliation($3.5 trillion package), and Budget
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Manchin and Sinema(in reality 4 others also) were roadblocks to avoid filibuster
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Read 6 tweets

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