Thread by @amlivemon

Democratic Party civil war upends Biden’s Build Back Better timetable

Losing political capital has consequences. The inability to pass legislation is the biggest consequence of all in the Beltway.

The moment that the Afghanistan decision was falling apart in real-time under

the global media’s scrutiny, that was the end of Joe Biden’s political capital. We noted in April that the Reconciliation bill would have trouble passing and the desperate attempt of Democrats to tie the Budget and Infrastructure bills to it should have waved red flags to

analysts against its passage. Creating political vacuums does not only cause conflict in geopolitics, but also domestic politics, which is precisely what has materialized between the progressives lead by Jayapal and the old guard represented by Pelosi.

Jayapal and her

progressive block have 95 voters in the House and 11 in the Senate. They are a force to be reckoned with because of the razor thin majorities and the total absence of Joe Biden in the process. Remember, vacuums get filled. For Jayapal, this is a simple political calculation:

Act now while Biden and Pelosi are weak and assume future leadership of the Democratic House caucus. The calculations are made easier by the fact that all projections have the GOP taking House majority in 2022 and this is the best chance progressives have had in the past decade

to pass meaningful legislation to their core voters. Progressives are tying all bills together to force it to a vote but the Reconciliation bill has yet to go through committees, which delay it for at least a month.

What the Beltway is seeing is what is the norm in Europe,

bickering political parties with weakened leadership. To look at vote counts for the next 12 months, you must now assume there are 3 parties instead of just 2. This means stalled, if not failed, legislation and increased grandstanding going into midterms, as all sides look to

shore up their seats but also claim power grabs within their own party.