Druckenmiller: "I think we're in one of the biggest productivity inflection booms since the late 1800s. I am very confident that it is not being measured in real GDP."
Uses example of pictures being taken and saved and shown for free on our phones vs paying to have pictures developed 10 years ago.
Recent tech advances are not only not captured in GDP, they are SUBTRACTING from reported GDP by replacing something that used to add to GDP.
"Im glad you mentioned the Encyclopedia Britannica... because you used to have to pay for it, and that added to GDP. The encyclopedia in your pocket, on your phone, is free now."
@nachkari The internet is about scale economics. So it's not about finding high roic, but about finding acceptable roic that persists for a long time.
@nachkari The best management teams have essentially no training outside of talking to customers. Competitive strategy is of limited value for entrepreneurs creating new markets.
@nachkari Distribution is always more important than content. Credit to Thiel.
Learnings from Thomas Watson / IBM of the 1920s. Scary how good business models & practices repeat throughout time. Watson himself learned from John Patterson of National Cash Register, improving on the few weaknesses he noticed at NCR. 1/5
Watson leased equipment creating recurring revenue + competitive barrier to entry, turning a customer's large, upfront capital expense into a small, recurring operating expense. He combined that with a razor / razor blade model. 2/5
Watson built the business FOR key stakeholders; customer success=salesperson success, & shareholder returns were a natural byproduct. He sold an outcome, not a product, & employed a consultative selling model, providing a continuous customer feedback loop & thus captivity. 3/5
Reinvestment opportunity is the last criteria I consider, probably spend the least time understanding, yet is the most important in determining investment outcome.
Viewing the investment funnel like this, my excuse=each of the 5 filters above reinvestment need to exist before reinvestment can be evaluated. For most companies, you never get past filter #2 or #3, thus spend least time thinking about most important determinant of success.
Maybe we can invert this & make it useful:
If you are a PM & have 20 pre screened ideas presented to you from your 5 highly competent analysts, start your own analysis of this opportunity set at the bottom of the funnel, not the top, and work your way backwards.
... if assume social media & digital distribution had always existed, how might the above models & comparisons be different? If social drives old content (eg back catalogs), pretty sure it changes monetization model for games, music & news?
The old media consumption paradigm looked liked this: