Druckenmiller: "I think we're in one of the biggest productivity inflection booms since the late 1800s. I am very confident that it is not being measured in real GDP."
Uses example of pictures being taken and saved and shown for free on our phones vs paying to have pictures developed 10 years ago.

Recent tech advances are not only not captured in GDP, they are SUBTRACTING from reported GDP by replacing something that used to add to GDP.
"Im glad you mentioned the Encyclopedia Britannica... because you used to have to pay for it, and that added to GDP. The encyclopedia in your pocket, on your phone, is free now."

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More from @BluegrassCap

Nov 21, 2020
@nachkari The internet is about scale economics. So it's not about finding high roic, but about finding acceptable roic that persists for a long time.
@nachkari The best management teams have essentially no training outside of talking to customers. Competitive strategy is of limited value for entrepreneurs creating new markets.
@nachkari Distribution is always more important than content. Credit to Thiel.
Read 7 tweets
May 10, 2020
Learnings from Thomas Watson / IBM of the 1920s. Scary how good business models & practices repeat throughout time. Watson himself learned from John Patterson of National Cash Register, improving on the few weaknesses he noticed at NCR. 1/5
Watson leased equipment creating recurring revenue + competitive barrier to entry, turning a customer's large, upfront capital expense into a small, recurring operating expense. He combined that with a razor / razor blade model. 2/5 Image
Watson built the business FOR key stakeholders; customer success=salesperson success, & shareholder returns were a natural byproduct. He sold an outcome, not a product, & employed a consultative selling model, providing a continuous customer feedback loop & thus captivity. 3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets
May 3, 2020
What were your biggest takeaways from Berkshire's annual meeting?
Buffett on the Louisiana Purchase; ”Don’t sell the mineral rights.”
on the FDIC effectively being a mutual insurance company; is there an example of a US government backed entity demutualizing? (the mortgage GSEs?)
Read 7 tweets
Feb 29, 2020
Reinvestment opportunity is the last criteria I consider, probably spend the least time understanding, yet is the most important in determining investment outcome.
Viewing the investment funnel like this, my excuse=each of the 5 filters above reinvestment need to exist before reinvestment can be evaluated. For most companies, you never get past filter #2 or #3, thus spend least time thinking about most important determinant of success.
Maybe we can invert this & make it useful:

If you are a PM & have 20 pre screened ideas presented to you from your 5 highly competent analysts, start your own analysis of this opportunity set at the bottom of the funnel, not the top, and work your way backwards.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 3, 2019
At present, is there a better commercial storage solution for renewable energy sources than this?
"Hydro storage currently dominates total
installed storage power capacity, with 96% of the total gigawatts installed globally in mid-2017."

Its all dams... batteries arent even on the radar yet. irena.org/-/media/Files/…
An introduction to the state of energy storage in the U.S. yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/12/an-int…
Read 6 tweets
Nov 21, 2019
Content & revenue models by media type...
... if assume social media & digital distribution had always existed, how might the above models & comparisons be different? If social drives old content (eg back catalogs), pretty sure it changes monetization model for games, music & news?
The old media consumption paradigm looked liked this:
Read 6 tweets

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