Jim Grace Profile picture
Jul 4, 2019 4 tweets 2 min read
@panmisthropist
1/ I took the Income data and sweated it a bit harder...
Looked at what effect does 100K of net immigration LAST year have on the wage rise for each income decile this year.

I looked seperately at:
Total net immigration (Non-EU, EU27 & Brits)
Brits
EU
Non-EU
2/ Observations:
1. The correlation numbers are all very low ( a figure of 1 means perfectly correlated; a figure of 0.1 means only 10% of the changes in Y are down to changes in X).
2. The sums involved are tiny - pennies.
3. Draw your own conclusiosns vis a vis EU v non EU.
3/ Caveats:
The analysis has not been normalised for age ( younger people earn less generally; a bunch of 26 year old immigrants will bring down the average for a decile just by joining it, without affecting the existing members wages at all!)
4/ More Caveats
The very low correlation values mean the whole analysis is a bit of a nonsense anyway - like comparing the effect of different profile wing mirrors on cars' top speeds without taking into account one is a 1.4l diesel and the other is 4.0l V8.

/End

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More from @mac_puck

Feb 11
FT: "UK to make new offer on Northern Ireland in talks with EU"

ft.com/content/6b3106…

Oooooh what can it be?

1/
OK: “red and green channels”, in which goods that were clearly destined to remain inside Northern Ireland, would be exempted from border bureaucracy.

I am sure I have heard that somewhere before...
Oh yes! Maros Sefcovic's speech of 13 October 2021.

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

All he wanted was:
1. Labelling of NI-only goods (jeez - would it kill us?)
2. UK to man BCP's properly (as promised).
3. UK to grant EC real-time access to UK databases (as promised).
Read 4 tweets
Feb 11
@GeorgeMonbiot Both the Mail and the Telegraph are running attacks against smart meters today, in a clearly co-ordinated move.

It is vital for the fossil fuel industry that they spike smart meters and surge pricing NOW, before there is a significant number of EV's, which owners will charge at night ( or even sell back to grid in the evening) because effective demand side electricity management...
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8
There are 3 very simple measures the UK government could take and the vast majority of checks on GB goods entering NI would disappear overnight.

That they are NOT doing these 3 things shows HMG are DELIBERATELY causing the problem at the expense of NI business and consumers.
1/
The 3 things:
1. Separately label GB goods intended for NI market only. (Jeez, we print sell-by dates, would it kill us to print "GB not for export"?)
2. Give EU realtime access to UK goods movements database (as promised).
3. Properly staff our BCPs (as promised).

2/
HMG could grant these 3 wishes in an instant. The EU would then:
1. Allow express lanes for NI only lorries
2. Permit 1 certificate per lorry, rather than 1 needed for each of maybe 100 different goods in a mixed load.
3. Dramatically reduce the amount of information...

3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 4
Who wants to play BorisLiesBingo ?

Rules Below

Coming up, 10 of Johnson's favourite PMQ's lies, and at the end of the thread, the master tweet to reply to with your entries!
Lie 1: Best Vaccine Rollout In Europe / World / This Spiral Arm of the Milky Way

(Reality: 15th in Europe and 38th in the World)
Read 12 tweets
Jan 23
Oh FFS. "Mutual enforcement":
a hard border between NI and IRL, but the border officials swap around - Irish check NORTHBOUND goods for compliance with British rules and British check SOUTHBOUND goods for compliance with EU rules.

Was there ever a more stupid idea?

1/
A. IT CREATES A HARD BORDER BETWEEN NI AND IRL.

Is a young nationalist firebrand, who objects to "Brits asking for papers" really going to be mollified by the check occurring on his southbond journey, instead of his northbound return?

I've never heard anything so dumb.

2/
B. It means asking the EU to trust the UK to enforce EU border controls. However, after 5 years of lying, lawbreaking, treaty-reneging, threats, insults & general f*ckery, the UK can be trusted to honour an agreement like you'd trust Jimmy Savile to give your daughter a lift.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 22
By 2050 Brexit will have cost us TWENTY times as much as Net zero.

My workings:

A. Cost of Net Zero.
The OBR say it is £321Bn (roughly £10Bn per year, or 40p per person per day)

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/pay…

Fair enough.

1/4
B. Cost of Brexit.

This has 2 components:
1. Hit to UK GDP
2. Cost of Brexit "red tape"

1. GDP
(The OBR say "4%"
obr.uk/forecasts-in-d… )

What does that come to by 2050?

Assuming £2.35Tn GDP in 2022 and 1.9% per year long term trend growth, it totals £3.6Tn by 2050

2/4
2. Brexit red tape.

In 2019 the UK had about £700Bn 2-way trade with the SM (EU + Norway + Switzerland + NI)

Richard Barfield has gleaned from Government sources that NTB's will add about 10/11% to costs.



With 1.9% trend growth: £2.8Bn by 2050.

3/4
Read 7 tweets

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