By 2050 Brexit will have cost us TWENTY times as much as Net zero.
My workings:
A. Cost of Net Zero.
The OBR say it is £321Bn (roughly £10Bn per year, or 40p per person per day)
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/pay…
Fair enough.
1/4
My workings:
A. Cost of Net Zero.
The OBR say it is £321Bn (roughly £10Bn per year, or 40p per person per day)
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/pay…
Fair enough.
1/4
B. Cost of Brexit.
This has 2 components:
1. Hit to UK GDP
2. Cost of Brexit "red tape"
1. GDP
(The OBR say "4%"
obr.uk/forecasts-in-d… )
What does that come to by 2050?
Assuming £2.35Tn GDP in 2022 and 1.9% per year long term trend growth, it totals £3.6Tn by 2050
2/4
This has 2 components:
1. Hit to UK GDP
2. Cost of Brexit "red tape"
1. GDP
(The OBR say "4%"
obr.uk/forecasts-in-d… )
What does that come to by 2050?
Assuming £2.35Tn GDP in 2022 and 1.9% per year long term trend growth, it totals £3.6Tn by 2050
2/4
2. Brexit red tape.
In 2019 the UK had about £700Bn 2-way trade with the SM (EU + Norway + Switzerland + NI)
Richard Barfield has gleaned from Government sources that NTB's will add about 10/11% to costs.
With 1.9% trend growth: £2.8Bn by 2050.
3/4
In 2019 the UK had about £700Bn 2-way trade with the SM (EU + Norway + Switzerland + NI)
Richard Barfield has gleaned from Government sources that NTB's will add about 10/11% to costs.
https://twitter.com/rjbarfield1/status/1178684432892518403?s=20
With 1.9% trend growth: £2.8Bn by 2050.
3/4
£3.6Tn lost GDP plus £2.8Tn wasted on Brexit red tape, comes to £6.4Tn by 2050.
That is 20 times (TWENTY TIMES!!) the net cost of getting to Carbon Zero by 2050.
That is £235K per family by 2050.
It makes the UK £4.4Bn a week worse off. (12 bus-lies worth)
4/4
That is 20 times (TWENTY TIMES!!) the net cost of getting to Carbon Zero by 2050.
That is £235K per family by 2050.
It makes the UK £4.4Bn a week worse off. (12 bus-lies worth)
4/4
Notes: My estimate assumes all £700Bn UK/SM trade remains as trade - either still with the EU or, perhaps, non-EU partners. In practice, some (10%? 15%? ) may be re-shored or simply vanish. Maybe my £2.8Tn should be £0.3Tn lower...
*Tn not Bn
And what about 2051? In the year 2051, Net Zero will be generating savings of £10Bn a year. Brexit will be delivering costs of £160Bn in reduced GDP plus £125Bn NTBs. A total of £285Bn per year.
This is why rejoining is inevitable
This is why rejoining is inevitable
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