Jon Worth Profile picture
Jul 14, 2019 6 tweets 2 min read
At #FreudenBrexit earlier I was asked for improbable Brexit scenarios... things that are just barely plausible.

So far I came up with 4...
- May, before going to the Palace to resign, writes to Tusk to revoke Article 50
(see point 1 here: blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/03… )
- Johnson, having been appointed PM, wants to keep the job. So promises a #PeoplesVote rather than going for a General Election
- May goes to the Queen, tenders resignation, but Queen does not think Johnson has a majority in the House of Commons and asks someone else to be an interim PM (Benn? Lidington?)
- It turns out that Boris Johnson leaked the Darroch cables (or Johnson faces some other major scandal), and he is so disgraced he cannot take office
What am I missing?

Send me your possible, but just about plausible, scenarios.

I will write them all up in a blog entry - with credit if you want. DMs also very welcome!

/ends

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More from @jonworth

Feb 21
I discovered this weekend that the @europeangreens are holding their next Council in June in Rīga

But this is about the most impossible place in Europe to travel to in a green way 🤦‍♂️

Details in the 🧵 Image
In terms of train connections it's a nightmare

There are NO trains currently that cross the Lithuania-Latvia border, and none that cross the Poland-Lithuania border either

From the north it does just about work - Tallinn-Valga trains run, as do Valga-Rīga trains
What if you took a ferry to Latvia?

There are Lübeck-Ventspils, and Travemünde-Liepaja ferries (each takes 18 hours or so!)

But in Latvia there are *no trains* Ventspils (Latvia's 5th city!) to Rīga

Liepaja to Rīga theoretically runs, but I can find no trains
Read 6 tweets
Feb 20
Earlier @Felyxorez pointed me to this in Le Monde about bosses of railway companies demanding "un nouveau pacte ferroviaire européen" 👇
lemonde.fr/economie/artic…

It's a summary of the main piece in Le Journal du Dimanche (no paywall if you accept ads)👇
lejdd.fr/Economie/sncf-…
First, the content

Honestly it's 🤷‍♂️

A load of we're green, we're the good guys, bla bla. Heard it all before. No concrete demands, no concrete plans
"Pour que le train soit plus attractif, nous nous engageons à améliorer l’expérience client : de la réservation à l’information voyageur en temps réel grâce au numérique, ainsi que pour l’offre ferroviaire internationale, y compris de nuit."

That's LOL funny. From SNCF!?
Read 13 tweets
Feb 9
Starting at 14:00 CET the Berlin Senat is releasing the results of its night trains study at a webinar - all the details here - inc. dial in link:
pro-bahn-berlin.de/dateien/presse…

I'll tweet about it using the tag #NightTrainsBerlin
I am making a brief presentation towards the end of the event. @Frodlund from @EUpassengers, @ElmervBuuren from @EuropeanSlpr and Kurt Bauer from ÖBB are among the other speakers
My slides, and a lot of workings and maps are here:
bit.ly/BerlinNightTra…

My take on what night trains could run to/from Berlin is here:
trainsforeurope.eu/nighttrainsber…

And what Germany could do to address the issues here:
trainsforeurope.eu/what-germany-n…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9
It's pretty extraordinary to get *so much* wrong in a 3 tweet thread

1️⃣ PAC "quite thin" - given there was no complete impact assessment on the deal he negotiated this is an interesting accusation
2️⃣ "EU's refusal in 2020 to negotiate an SPS equivalence process" - EU made it clear all along that this was a non-starter. You cannot keep rolling this one out over and over - you stated in 2021 "Britain has just become a fully independent country again"
3️⃣ "the new inward customs processes we brought in on 1 January.

I wouldn't have done this but I lost the internal argument"

So you were fine to not do something that was agreed in the Deal *you* negotiated? And you're washing your hands of that?

Are you for real?
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
Dreary grey weekends in Berlin mean more wanderlust... I've now planned all the bike legs of my #CrossBorderRail trip for this summer - where there is no train, or infrastructure doesn't exist any more, I will cycle rather than take the train

Explained 👇
jonworth.eu/crossborderrai…
Komoot is much better for bike trip planning than Google, so all the routes are listed here in Komoot 👇
komoot.de/user/189774755…

The good news: I've found a way to do Kulata 🇧🇬 - Sidirokastro 🇬🇷 by bike instead of needing a taxi!
The less good news: Suwalki 🇵🇱 - Marijampolė 🇱🇹 is a complete pain. Even bus schedules here are horrible (v early morning), and were I to cycle it's more than 80km... Do I want to risk that on a Birdy folding bike on rural lanes?
Read 5 tweets
Jan 27
So thanks to excellent feedback from @DavidHerdson @leonardocarella @tomwalkr @EuropeanRover there is now a new version of the Does Johnson Survive? Diagram - version 2.0.0
What's changed?

Essentially, on reflection, it strikes me as implausible that there cannot be something new when the report comes out - either *in* the report, or through some further leak

And version 1.0.0 of the diagram did not cover that adequately

Diagram re-worked on that
Some additional thinking about how the 54 MPs might be composed helped here too

As ever: thoughtful feedback is *so very welcome* - it helps these diagrams improve!
Read 5 tweets

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