Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #PeoplesVote

Most recents (24)

Today we joined other groups from Berkshire & the rest of Britain (as well as some from further afield) for the #FinalSayForAll march.
It was brilliant - the weather was good, the atmosphere was amazing, the speeches at the end were memorable.
#StopBrexitMarch #PeoplesVoteMarch
Assembling at the start of the march.
A lot of time must have gone into making this pub sign placard.
#borisjohnson #PeoplesVoteMarch #lyingcock #stopbrexit
Read 34 tweets
Using my time on the Eurostar to London for "Super Saturday" to make the latest #BrexitDiagram V30

This one covers the impact of the Letwin Amendment and how that impacts overall #Brexit outcomes

This is really important - as I explain in the thread
All the media focus has been on how MPs will vote on the Deal Johnson got in Brussels - and #VoteDownTheDeal

However something else - the Letwin Amendment - is actually more important to the outcome now
The Letwin Amendment means the UK has to request an #Article50 Extension *anyway*, buying time for the Commons and Lords to scrutinise the Deal

But other things - notably the vote on the Queen's Speech - happen during this period, and that poses problems for the Government
Read 7 tweets
There is no compromise for #remain in this brexit deal. For MPs who think it will bring people together once again they are indulging in sheer fantasy. The compromise is between a hard brexit and a slightly less hard brexit, all being harder than Mays WA which was pretty hard.
The people who have yapped on for 3 years about EEA Norway etc have completely wasted their breath. As soon as Mays red lines were drawn this option was out of the picture. If labour MPs think this deal is right they are doing a great disservice to the country.
The biggest Pro EU movement in Europe is not going to disband if brexit is imposed without at the very least a chance for people to have a voice at the ballot box ON. THE DEAL. #Leave have completely ignored #remainers concerns for 3 years.
Read 5 tweets
Right then

It's the pre #EUCO #BrexitDiagram you have been waiting for!

V29, based on knowing we have a framework for a Deal
I admit V28 put the chances of Johnson even getting a Deal as too low - only .2

However the total impact of him having done so is not that significant, because the chances this works in London are v slim still, due to the DUP (still only 10% chance Deal passes)
This also accounts for there being the extra session of Parliament on 19 Oct

And also Labour firming up its position on #PeoplesVote
Read 5 tweets
I'd like you all to follow me on a little #Brexit thought experiment.

Imagine there was a referendum on the legality of cannabis (bare with me, I am going somewhere with this). The question asked of people was thus:

"Should Cannabis, in all its forms, be illegal in all cases?"
It's a simple Yes-or-No question. And if the overall result is 'Yes', then the actions taken by the government are equally simple - ban all the WackyBaccy. No plants, no oils, no medical applications - nada.

A 'No' result, however, is a bit more complicated.
Voting 'No' could cover a number of different possibilities:
-Legalised medicinal oils only
-Legalised medicinal oils + smoking
-Legalised medicinal + recreational use (if over 18) + licenced suppliers
-Legalised med + rec (18+) but no licence required for supply
...
Read 16 tweets
THREAD

Tomorrow will be 22 months tomorrow since I (Andy) set up @RemainerNow Twitter account as I felt those whom have changed their minds are the most vital voices in this debate & wanted to do something to get them heard.

1/18

(Help us do more
remainernow.com/donate)
I had no political experience at the time, prior the the referendum result I had never been out campaigning or been a member of a political party.

About 6 weeks after starting @victoriaremain1 reached out to say she had worked on campaigns and wanted to help me grow this

2/18
After meeting she came on board & for the first year it was just the two of us doing this in our spare time. We set up a website, Facebook page and an Instagram, arranged a 3 events in parliament & a meet ups for #PeoplesVote marches but was a limit to what we could do.

3/18
Read 18 tweets
1/
No-deal Brexit: Will hit leave-voting areas hardest

Salisbury, Sunderland and Carlisle are among the English cities where jobs would be worst hit in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to a secret government list leaked to The Sunday Times.

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/n…
2/
The "official sensitive", requiring security clearance on a "need to know" basis reveals 29 of the 33 areas most vulnerable to job losses if the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal.

The 4, worst affected areas will be contained in another, higher classified document.
3/
Only 37% of small and medium-sized enterprises have made sufficient, or any, preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

In many cases, preparation just isn't possible due to the size of the company / barriers to trade.

Moving to the EU27 would be the only viable option.
#PeoplesVote
Read 36 tweets
Thread alert. This has probably been done before but basically, I'm a #RemainerNow and I thought I would have a look through my old tweets out of curiosity & respond to them correcting myself & pointing out how silly I was. So here goes.
Verhofstadt is an MEP! He was elected by the people of Belgium in the European Parliament elections!

As has been revealed since by the Govt's own info, the worst case scenario was right. But the Leave campaign dismissed it as Project Fear and enough people believed them to affect the result. But now we have a chance to avoid that worst case scenario.

Read 17 tweets
Today on our #PeoplesVote street stall I got complaints about rubbish on the streets, austerity, homelessness, high pay for executives, and money wasted on HS2. Every time I gently suggested that these things were not due to the EU, and that Brexit wouldn't make them any better.
It was pretty clear that all the anger and frustration over 40 years of neglect in our smaller northern towns, the lack of decent jobs, the general feeling of hopelessness, had all been weaponised by the leave campaign. The EU has been used as a scapegoat.
I sympathised with those who thought we did ok before the EU (although our living standards were nowhere near today's) but then asked them if they thought leaving the EU would take everything back to how it used to be, and people realise it will not.
Read 5 tweets
We might not have the best weather for it, but there is still a good turnout for @Rally4OurRights this afternoon.
#Rally4OurRights
Crowds outside the Home Office
#Rally4OurRights
Love this placard
#Rally4OurRights
Read 30 tweets
So tunnelling in Brussels... means more diagramming for me!

New #BrexitDiagram V28, in light of today's developments
tl;dr - even though everyone is talking about a Deal, that doesn't make a Deal more likely. It makes an Article 50 extension and a General Election more likely.
Above all that the mood is positive means the chances of an Article 50 extension are up - because "a deal is around the corner" gives Johnson cover to extend, and the EU reason to not deny the UK an extension
Read 6 tweets
So @timjoyce11 rightly pointed out that #BrexitDiagram V27.1 did not adequately cover what would happen if May's Deal were brought back on 19 Oct with a #PeoplesVote attached...

V27.2 tries to cover this
We know that @hilarybennmp would want to try this route on 19 Oct, it's hard to know if there's a majority for it (it's ages since @peterkyle tried similar)

Plus what would happen were it successful has not even been debated - would Johnson actually do this? Or sooner resign?
Chances of a GE slip a little, chances of a #PeoplesVote increase a little

High res image here:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/brex…

And as ever all on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
Read 3 tweets
Thanks to feedback from @Astro_Wright (who rightly pointed out I was missing an arrow that Corbyn could continue to avoid a VONC post-Queen's Speech), there's a new #BrexitDiagram V27.1 - this doesn't change the outcomes though
Reminder how all this compares to last week:
3% ⬇️ No Deal 31 Oct
8% ⬇️⬇️ Revoke by 31 Oct
10% 🆕 Stalemate
48% ⬆️ General Election 2019
14% ↔️ General Election 2020
14% ⬇️⬇️ #PeoplesVote 2020
3% ⬆️ Brexit with Deal
What's caused the changes?

Essentially it's because now all the decisions UK side will have to happen after the European Council, and working out the precise sequencing of each stage is complex
Read 4 tweets
🤯

Sometimes #Brexit just gets a whole lot more complex

And that makes the #BrexitDiagram a whole load worse...

New version 27 - now a massive 5930x8318 pixels in size, to make sense of it all!
So what changed here?
- the @DaleVince @JolyonMaugham @joannaccherry case
- negotiations close to breaking down in Brussels
- the Govt suggesting the Commons will sit Saturday 19 Oct, and how this plays with the Queen's Speech and vote on that
All of this has the chances of No Deal, #PeoplesVote and Revoke slipping a bit, the chances of a General Election steady in comparison to last week. And a new entry - that all this ends up with more stalemate has a 10% chance
Read 5 tweets
A thread- Labour & the #IrishBorder. Last night @jonsnowC4 interviewed @Keir_Starmer on @Channel4News. Starmer put forward Lab's Customs Union idea as the solution, Snow then picked up this idea & asked him about a Norway deal. 1/
Despite what Starmer implied, a Customs Union on its own would not stop customs checks. It was only when the UK & Ireland joined the Single Market in 1993 that customs checks vanished. Lab oppose being in the Single Market. 2/
theconversation.com/would-staying-…
As it is, Norway is in the Single Market. But, as it is not in the EU's Customs Union, there are checks. @Freight_NI points out its one lorry every 35 sec on #IrishBorder at the moment while there's a delay of 10 ins on Norway/Sweden. 3/
Read 11 tweets
In @thetimesscot, a new @TheIFS report shows the economy is £60bn smaller than forecast because of #Brexit and shockingly ranks our economic prospects higher under a Labour-led government. 1/
"The public finances have deteriorated substantially" and a 'no deal' Brexit would necessitate huge fiscal stimulus seeing the national debt soar to 90% of GDP, wrecking our own government borrowing rules. 2/
The report shows current Conservative spending plans almost match the level of Labour's 2017 #magicmoneytree manifesto and "the government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor" 3/
Read 10 tweets
Brexit is a cancer, but Cummings, Gove, Johnson et al do not want that cancer to be treated. 1/20
Brexit is consuming the resources of the UK, with one sole aim, to kill the UK. Already £900 million has been consumed by Brexit. Resources that could have been spent on our schools, hospitals, infrastructure and other services. 2/20

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/summary-costin…
A further £30 billion a year has been the hit to the economy, against where the economy was projected to have been at. This is Brexit killing growth. It will get worse. 3/20

ft.com/content/641229…
Read 20 tweets
OK folks

Take a very deep breath

The new #BrexitDiagram V26, redesigned from scratch, is here

This one is, well, complicated. But the conclusions are fascinating
The root cause of the major changes is NOT Johnson's speech, and is NOT the bad reaction in Brussels to the Government's Brexit "plans"

The change is the news that the Commons will be prorogued next week

That limits the time to do *anything* before the 17 Oct European Council
That means the Benn Act is going to have to work as-is. And any effort to oust Johnson is then going to have to be last minute

Also with less than a month to go, I now have labelled weeks on the diagram (top to bottom), and UK and EU side (left and right)
Read 5 tweets
So @hugodixon had an interesting idea in this column:
independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…

Could the Commons amend the Benn Act mandating someone other than Johnson to write the Article 50 Extension letter?

I added it to #BrexitDiagram to see its impact - now V25
Interim probabilities now:
Johnson goes to 17 Oct Summit: 40%
Johnson goes *but no power to send letter*: 17%
Someone else goes as PM: 42%
Johnson is heading for Court: 2%
This option - to keep Johnson in power but to control what he can do more closely - has the impact of keeping him on as PM longer, and lowering the chances a VONC is needed short term.

This option merits more debate and discussion.
Read 5 tweets
Slightly updated #BrexitDiagram V24.2 this morning

Based on news from @peston that Labour MPs are now keener on a 2nd referendum than a General Election, and that Qs about how to sort out a caretaker government persist
Probabilities and trends:
No Deal 31 Oct - 4% ⬆️
Art 50 Revoked - 8% ⬆️
Brexit with Deal - -% ↔️
GE 2019 - 52% ⬇️⬇️
GE 2020 - 21% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote - 15% ⬆️⬆️
As ever .png, .pdf, .ods and .drawio XML on my blog:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

/ends
Read 3 tweets
Time for the next #BrexitDiagram - Series 3, Version 24 - 30th September

And it's one of those ones I dislike making - where all the options get more complex, and I have to add loads of arrows and boxes...
This one tries to cover the quandaries the opposition faces this week - to VONC or not to VONC. And then if VONC happens, what happens if Johnson refuses to go? It's all in here, as clearly as I can manage it (thanks @djm_black and @davidallengreen for the prompting)
Last week's rancid debate in Parliament (and Brussels reactions) lowers the chances of a Deal still further, and discussions with @NvOndarza and @paul0evans1 have led to to me adding a new end box - General Election in 2020
Read 5 tweets
Whilst these things are rarely simple, a profits warning in May clearly cites #Brexit and the problems that made in environment as a big factor. Very sad day for the owners, employees here and overseas, the hotels and supply chains.#ThomasCookcollapse

ft.com/content/dd402b…
Here in #Cheshire we need to realise that a move or shut down of some of our substantial local automotive industry thanks to bad #brexit trading conditions will leave thousands of our friends and neighbours in similar disarray. #StopBrexit #ThomasCook
We don’t want to be sitting watching a corporate tragedy unfolding on our doorsteps watched by the country as our jobs are frittered and gambled away on an extraordinary act of national self harm. Real people have to pay the price for this madness #remain #ThomasCookcollapse
Read 7 tweets
So @BenedictWesson suggested to me I ought to make #BrexitDiagram versions for each #UKSupremeCourt possible outcome

I have now done that, adapting V21 of the diagram accordingly

The results are *fascinating*
tl;dr - if prorogation is justiciable, then this
First the original V21, with some minor amendments to the graphics

This has a .7 chance prorogation is justiciable, .3 that it is not

This gives outcomes:
2% - No Deal 31 Oct
4% - Revoke
2% - Brexit with Deal
86% - General Election
6% - #PeoplesVote
Read 8 tweets
The @RemainerNow team were at #LDConf for a few days we had a stand and an event. The idea was to raise awareness amongst activists but also meet/chat to parliamentarians so they could learn more about us & how we could help them & anti-brexit colleagues.

Here is who we met 👇
First here are the parliamentarians we met on the exhibition stand we had. They came and talked to us about our campaign & how they can help, they heard #RemainerNow stories, saw some video content and collected handouts and our new business cards.
Read 20 tweets

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