This analysis is all politics and no governing, and the political analysis is bad. A short thread...
https://twitter.com/AJentleson/status/1153334905608294402
1. Democrats, in general, want to spend more, and Republicans less. This deal spends more, despite a Republican president and Senate. On governing, a win for Dems.
2. The political analysis presumes whichever party holds the presidency when the debt limit ceiling is reaching is being handed a live grenade.
This is nonsense. Debt limit "hostage takings" are rare, and do not necessarily succeed...
This is nonsense. Debt limit "hostage takings" are rare, and do not necessarily succeed...
...Yes, Republicans played a relatively strong hand in 2011 to force budget cuts. But Republicans got less than zilch for the 2013 shutdown, because they were getting killed in the polls and flinched as the debt limit approached, partially undoing the 2011 cuts...
...So you can't score pushing the debt limit to 2021 as a political win for Republicans or Democrats, because there are way too many unknowns, as to who will have leverage and how that leverage will be used...
...Moreover, what was the alternative? Demanding a six-year debt limit suspension? That would be a Senate non-starter. Should Democrats have *caused* a debt limit crisis over such a demand? That would be a bigger political dud than the 2013 shutdown over defunding ACA...
...These complaints have similar overtones of the '10 2-year tax cut extension criticism, in which some accused Obama of frittering away leverage, when in fact, he pocketed stimulus, played for time and eventually gained leverage to raise taxes on the wealthy...
...which I wrote about here politico.com/magazine/story… ...
...One last point: the 2013 shutdown debacle allowed Democrats to win on the principle that *hostage taking is bad governing* and it hasn't happened since. It's a principle Democrats should continue to embrace...
...If Republicans try to violate that principle in 2021 under a Democratic president, Democrats can and should welcome that fight...
...In sum, Democrats pocketed $$$ today and saved the politics, if there will be any, for 2021. A good deal for stable governance.
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