#Thread
Been reading a bunch of Annual Reports last few days. Creating this thread to capture and share interesting tidbits from the ones I am reading this season. Will be updated on an ongoing basis next few weeks.
1/n
2. Few bluechips have reported their #EconomicValueAdded (EVA), a good measure of shareholder value creation. HUL AR does a great job of explaining details. EVA as % avg capital employed over a period of time can be a good leading indicator. Pidilite also shares EVA details
3. Chairman's letter+MD&A section of top 2/3 key players provide great overview of economy and sector dynamics.
Few suggested section reads are HUL, Kotak, PEL, Sterlite Tech, Everest Ind+Visaka, Godrej Prop, OCCL, Hikal, Aavas, RBL, L&T Infotech, Zydus Wellness.
Suggest more!
4. #AlisonCastalloy AR makes for a great read, both for the interesting developments and technology progress at the company as well as evolving industry landscape. Says growth rate in Indian foundry industry will double over next 5 years. PS: Also says FY20 will be challenging.
5. #Logistics is very interesting with a time frame 3-5 years. GST, e-way bill, National Logistics Policy, relaxed FDI and Infra status has boosted outlook. Recommended ARs- Mahindra Logistics (must read), VRL, Shreyas Shipping are good reads. 3rd PL+coastal are big opportunities
6. #IDFCFirstBank: CEO Vaidi's letter "A new beginning" has some bold statements around turnaround & an aggressive roadmap.
>In investment phase, implementing Capital First's profitable retail model
>Expects high profit growth in next few years
PS: Read with a pinch of skepticism
7. Some interesting small cap ARs:
a. Rajratan Global wires (leading tyre bead wire mfr) - 2x capacity; near term headwinds.
b. Kirloskar Pneumatic- multiple triggers
c. Saksoft- Digital transaformation. Phase 2.0
d. Kriti Nutrients - Commodity to brand
Not reco, only study!
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5x in 5 years implies 38% CAGR, which has low probability (happy with 25%).
But as retail investors, we have an edge that institutions don't - we don't have to chase benchmarks every qtr & our winners can run longer. 5 yrs is good for a researched investment to bear fruits.
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Total US population: 33 crores
Total Indians in US: 0.42 crores
Total unicorns in US: 290
Unicorns by NRI Indians: 67
Indians are 1.3% of US population, but have founded 23% of US unicorns!
Now imagine the potential of home grown unicorns over the next decade. Talent was never a question, digital infrastructure has been formed in last few years and regulations are more supportive.
One big impediment is the low per capital income in India ($1948) versus USA ($65000), which makes it difficult to sell SaaS/ subscription products to Indian users at scale.
A large young population base should support B2C models, which B2B models will start looking globally.
Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the price of goods and services. Your investment returns must cover for inflation to avoid loss of purchasing power.
Reading: cnbc.com/2021/05/13/her….
Asset class wise thoughts below:
2/n
1. Equity:
A. Tech platforms: ❌
Inflationary scenario has historically been bad for growth stocks and Tech has had a ferocious rally. Despite recent correction, many names appear overvalued to me. Selectively hold 2 names.
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@KirtanShahCFP Thanks for simplifying and sharing about InvITs Kirtan. Some further context from my side:
1. Background: The government has announced an aggressive spend target of ₹100 lakh crore over next five years to revamp India's infrastructure (roads, power transmission, gas pipelines)
Equity in infrastructure is seen as risk prone and Debt (Project Financing) has been scaled down by Banks over last few years thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editor…
This is where a structure such as InvIT comes in. Think of it as Mutual Funds, with...
@KirtanShahCFP ..key difference being that these InvITs would hold infrastructure assets instead of financial securities held under MFs.
3. Also the risk-rewards make them a hybrid between Debt and equities - just the right mix in my opinion, if India is to achieve it's aggressive target.