India has historically made large public investments in science. But now govt support is flat (in $) and decreasing per scientist (with PhD numbers as proxy). When government steps back, private entities will be able to set the agenda.
Thread
There are many reasons the nominal cost of research goes up:
1. More scientists. 2. Inflation raises costs of supplies, salaries. 3. Cost of new technologies.
We can't just track inflation rate for bunsen burners: we need cryo-EMs and DNA sequencers too. New tech is expensive.
For example, the Department of Biotechnology's annual budget from 2017/18 to 2018/19 is flat, at less than $400 million (see top of thread). The dollar exchange rate matters, because new technologies are often not locally available. Indigenization will help, but only marginally.
In comparison, a SINGLE research institute in Israel, the Weizmann Institute, had a 2017 operating budget of $425 million (1.5 billion New Israeli Shekel), supporting 274 laboratories, 332 MSc students, 729 PhD students, and 372 post-doctoral researchers. weizmann.ac.il/board/sites/bo…
About a third of Weizmann funds come from the Israeli government. The rest come from international grants, industry sources, philanthropy. Very little (less than 15%) comes from tech transfer and patents. This funding mix is difficult to achieve in India currently.
The Indian government has suggested 30% of operating costs of basic academic research should come from non-governmental sources. But such sources are beyond public scrutiny. What happens when a small group of philanthropists and industrialists (via CSR) suddenly set the agenda?
Conversely, pushing govt funds into applied research crowds out private risk capital. Why would a company invest in, e.g., solar tech, when a govt-funded entity does the same? Such govt-supported research, in the absence of a profit motive, rarely leads to marketable products.
Government funding of science can be counter-cyclical. In an economic slowdown, any fiscal stimulus must go into long-term investments, not freebies. Research is such an investment. Academic centres nurture and protect talent during downturns, which pays off in recoveries.
The public have been the greatest supporters of Indian science. Let the public set the research agenda, not philanthropists. Let's create bustling hubs of education and innovation. The benefits are there for all to see: from basic discoveries to life-saving technologies.
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The so-called Covid “supermodel” commissioned by the Govt of India is fundamentally flawed.
Not surprising, since it was built by people who had no clue about epidemiology or public health (the Govt ignored the advice of *actual* public health experts).
See for yourself. Thread
On 09/03/21 they explicitly predicted there would be no “second wave”.
OK, models can get their predictions wrong. Presumably, once it became clear there was a raging second wave, the model builders would admit their model was flawed, right?
Wrong.
The basis for the claim of “no second wave” is this projection from 09/03/21. It predicts a “gentle increase” followed by a “gentle decline”, peaking at about 30,000 cases per day.
Once you make a prediction, you either stick by it, or admit the model is wrong. But ...
What’s behind India’s second wave? A simple model can help us understand what’s going on.
There’s lots of variation between cities, so it’s best to look at a single city like Bangalore. Why did cases in Bangalore start to dip in Oct 2020? Why did they start to rise in Mar 2021?
“R0” is the average number of new infections that would be caused by one infected individual, assuming nobody is immune. This depends both on behaviour and viral biology.
Let’s define the “level of caution” as the inverse of R0. Less cautious people cause more infections.
Let’s scale the y-axis from 0 to 1. In RED is the fraction of people who have recovered, and so are immune (measured from BOTTOM). In GREEN is the level of caution (measured from TOP).
When the red and green curves cross, new cases per day start to fall. This is “herd immunity”.
"The term community transmission means that the source of infection for the spread of an illness is unknown or a link in terms of contacts between patients and other people is missing." [Wikipedia]
The novel coronavirus originated in Wuhan. So *every* case in India must have arisen, via a chain of contacts, from Wuhan. Therefore, *every* case in India involves an international traveller as part of the chain of infection. This is a matter of logic, not epidemiology.
2/5
Community transmission is a statement about the limits of our knowledge. It's not a statement about the virus.
In some cases we can establish the chain to an int'l traveller. This is not community transmission.
In some cases we can't. This is community transmission.
3/5
In coming days, it's important for the public to know that experts looking at the same data can legitimately disagree.
E.g. Consider the debate about whether community transmission has begun. Due to Bayes' Theorem, the answer depends on what you already believe.
Thread.
1/9
Assume the ideal case: don't consider asymptomatic carriers, let test results be instant.
We test 1,000 symptomatic cases and all are negative. This means there's no community transmission right?
Wrong. To interpret the result, we need to make a bunch of assumptions.
2/9
First we need to define some level of C.T. to look for. In the high-incidence group of symptomatic int'l travellers & contacts, about 2% are positive (283 out of 15,701 tested).
Let's assume that incidence due to C.T. among all symptomatic people is a tenth of that: 0.2%.
3/9
I was shocked to see such shoddy journalism from @the_hindu. They spun a 3-month-old *open-access* paper into a "secret" conspiracy theory, without even requesting a statement from the authors! The report, even the headline, contained many false statements.
A science journalist would have read the paper and spoken to the authors, rather indulging in speculation in the midst of a public health crisis. As @NCBS_Bangalore was not given a chance to respond, we have issued a clarification, covered by @1amnerd. thewire.in/the-sciences/c…
This thread explains the facts, and shows precisely how flawed the original report was. @the_hindu has been sent a formal statement from NCBS, but they are yet to issue a correction.