Covid-19-positive cases in India (source:covidindia.org).
One active case on Mar 2nd. Then:
9 days to 50
5 days to 100
3 days to 150
1 day to 200
We are well into exponential growth, which strongly implies community transmission.
One active case on Mar 2nd. Then:
9 days to 50
5 days to 100
3 days to 150
1 day to 200
We are well into exponential growth, which strongly implies community transmission.
This suggests a doubling every 2.5 days (i.e. exactly the 33% per day increase seen in other countries). Nothing special about India.
If this continues unabated, in 3 weeks the total number of positive cases will be 100,000, exceeding the total number of kits ICMR currently has.
If this continues unabated, in 3 weeks the total number of positive cases will be 100,000, exceeding the total number of kits ICMR currently has.
ICMR, you can start using your kits today. They will be useless 3 weeks from now.
I sincerely hope these numbers do not become reality. Yesterday the Prime Minister called upon all of us to act, in the face of an unprecedented global pandemic. Please listen. Change your lives today, there is still time to avert the worst case.
The covidindia site has updated the graphic with latest cases, showing 2 days to 200. But the point still remains, total number of cases is already 223.
