"The term community transmission means that the source of infection for the spread of an illness is unknown or a link in terms of contacts between patients and other people is missing." [Wikipedia]
The authorities seem confused about the definition: aninews.in/news/national/…
1/5
The authorities seem confused about the definition: aninews.in/news/national/…
1/5
The novel coronavirus originated in Wuhan. So *every* case in India must have arisen, via a chain of contacts, from Wuhan. Therefore, *every* case in India involves an international traveller as part of the chain of infection. This is a matter of logic, not epidemiology.
2/5
2/5
Community transmission is a statement about the limits of our knowledge. It's not a statement about the virus.
In some cases we can establish the chain to an int'l traveller. This is not community transmission.
In some cases we can't. This is community transmission.
3/5
In some cases we can establish the chain to an int'l traveller. This is not community transmission.
In some cases we can't. This is community transmission.
3/5
Official quotes suggest that any infection resulting from int'l travel is not community transmission.
By this logic, since every Indian case of Covid-19 came from int'l travel, they could keep claiming "no community transmission" even after 1.3 billion Indians are infected.
4/5
By this logic, since every Indian case of Covid-19 came from int'l travel, they could keep claiming "no community transmission" even after 1.3 billion Indians are infected.
4/5
Fact: If there is a *single* Covid+ person for whom the link to int'l travel cannot be found, that is community transmission by definition.
We've already met that criterion.
To say there's no community transmission now is dishonest, or shows a lack of understanding.
5/5
We've already met that criterion.
To say there's no community transmission now is dishonest, or shows a lack of understanding.
5/5
The definition used by WHO leaves open the question of what "large" is, and therefore does not provide any resolution about when community transmission has actually started. Is 10% of all SARI cases large enough?
In the U.S., by contrast, states reported their *first* case of community transmission.
This was a sign they had lost the chain of contacts, and so the response strategy had to change.
[It is another matter that the U.S. squandered this early warning.]
washingtonpost.com/health/a-secon…
This was a sign they had lost the chain of contacts, and so the response strategy had to change.
[It is another matter that the U.S. squandered this early warning.]
washingtonpost.com/health/a-secon…
