Richard Black Profile picture
Sep 13, 2019 14 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Very interesting findings from @Survation poll of attitudes to climate change and the #netzero transformation survation.com/british-public… - raises questions for government, commentators, broadcasters and environment groups
First result - 64% think #UKnetzero date should be brought forward from 2050 (vs 9% who want it later or not at all). Chimes with letter signed by (now) 193 MPs theclimatecoalition.org/joint-letter, co-ordinated by @SimonClarkeMP, which called for date "before 2050" Image
...which is fine - except the Committee on Climate Change @theCCCuk concluded in its Net Zero report theccc.org.uk/publication/ne…: 'The Committee do not currently consider it credible to aim to reach net-zero emissions earlier than 2050'. And it is the official advisor to Government
For those in politics who are looking to advance the existing date notwithstanding @theCCCuk advice, second noteworthy point is a third of the population backs 2025 as the target - despite evidence that meeting this would be, to put it euphemistically, "challenging"
Third point: half the population believes UK won't get to #netzero by 2050. Would be interesting to know why - belief that it's hard, lack of awareness that solutions do exist, lack of faith in politics, etc. But clearly ministers, scientists & civil society have a job to do Image
Fourth: two-thirds (ballpark) are prepared to make lifestyle changes in order to get to #netzero. This is one point that I think media commentariat does not generally reflect Image
But the message to green groups from the same graph surely is: "don't tell us what to do". There's willingness to reduce meat eating but not to give it up completely. Suspect questions on giving up car ownership or flying would produce similar answers
Most interesting of all - 50% of the population sees cutting greenhouse gas emissions as more important than growing the economy (vs 30% other way) Image
Luckily there is hardly a conflict between the two - one can argue @Survation's framing is well out of date here. However... it raises the question, should broadcasters give the same airtime to reporting environmental indicators as to economic ones? What do you reckon, @BBCNews?
Last message is... rack up another failure for the contrarians
eg: Dominic Lawson in @thesundaytimes a while back on #netzero thetimes.co.uk/edition/commen…: "No one is interested in your last-minute legacy building, Mrs May"
...except, as this survey shows (among others), people are interested. @theresa_may was in tune with the public. You know, the people outside the privileged confines of 55 Tufton St and the broadsheet press. Not only interested, but concerned and prepared to do something
More proof of @itvnews's science editor @TomClarke_ITV description of the UK's climate contrarian elite as "a spectacular waste of ink and intellectual energy" amazon.co.uk/Denied-rise-fa…
So - lots of interesting findings here. Who's going to do what with them?

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More from @_richardblack

Dec 4, 2023
THREAD: With all the talk #cop28 centring on #fossilfuelphaseout or not – abated, unabated, etc – what actually is the logical role of CCS in the energy transition?
In a new paper for @thesmithschool @uniofoxford, Dr Andrea Bacilieri, Dr Rupert Way and I analyse the relative costs of taking a high-CCS vs a low-CCS route to #netzero and the 1.5°C temperature goal – a question that as far as we can see hasn’t been properly asked before
And the difference?
Read 16 tweets
Apr 28, 2023
Hilarious to see @NetZeroWatch plugging this 'dangers of woke banking' line... here's their chairman's own company's sustainability page 😂😂😂 recordfg.com/sustainability/ Image
There's lots more... Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 9, 2023
I have deep reservations about this 'people who live near wind farms should get cheap electricity' thing, which has reached a new depth today with a recommendation that they should get free electricity
It would only make sense if people were opposed to having wind farms nearby, and there's a welter of evidence in a range of countries showing that the majority of people aren't opposed (eg sciencedirect.com/science/articl…)
Read 9 tweets
Dec 20, 2022
THREAD: Climate change causes conflict, you say? Well: it's a bit more complex than that
Climate change and other facets of the global environmental crisis raise the risks of conflict and other forms of insecurity. But so do many other things - competition for resources, ethnic tensions, prior conflicts, pandemics...
And there is already a growing security crisis. Over the last 10 years (well before #Covid and Putin's war) the number of state-based armed conflicts, the number of people killed in them and the number of people displaced all roughly doubled
Read 12 tweets
Nov 19, 2022
THREAD: Sparked by Frans @TimmermansEU's remarks that #COP27 could kill off the #ParisAgreement 1.5 Celsius temperature target , a short thread on some realities of 1.5°C
This is also a nod to all those lining up to pontificate that '1.5°C is dead', particularly scientists who make no attempt to clarify that that what they're saying is just their opinion, not fact
Firstly let's look at the #ParisAgreement's wording - to 'hold' warming 'well below 2°C' while 'making efforts' to keep it to 1.5°C. There is no time limit on that 'making efforts'. Governments did not pledge to make efforts until warming exceeds 1.5°C and then stop
Read 18 tweets
Nov 18, 2022
THREAD: The reluctance of some governments to contemplate having language on phasing down all fossil fuels in the #COP27 cover text unfccc.int/sites/default/… is in one sense baffling... because they've already agreed that it's needed
The draft text 'reaffirms the fundamental #ParisAgreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels'
Back in April the @IPCC_CH Working Group 3 report ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/ spelled out what meeting either of these targets would mean for fossil fuel use and, by implication, for extraction
Read 16 tweets

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