Thread by @MerryMichaelW

Labour's Electoral Battleground - Thread. (1/12)

So, as some of you already know, I have been compiling this spreadsheet. It currently covers Labour's top 90 TARGETS, and top 25 DEFENCES. Pay attention, now! 😉

#SocialistSunday #RespecttheVote
#SundayMorning
#SundayMotivation

I have matched all constituencies with their equivalent 2016 referendum counting areas, be they actual constituencies, districts, metropolitan districts, unitary authorities, boroughs, Welsh Assembly Seats or Scottish Highlands and Islands districts. (2/12)

I do not pretend that this is a perfect match, but it is the nearest available. Even ward numbers are only available in about 15% of counting areas, many in Greater London, so the effort required for a closer match is simply not worth it. (3/12)

These caveats in no way negate what I am about to show.

There are 52 LEAVE constituencies, and 38 REMAIN in Labour's top 90 TARGETS. 25 of these are Scottish seats, only 1 of which is Conservative, the rest SNP. ALL THE 52 LEAVE CONSTITUENCIES ARE IN ENGLAND & WALES. (4/12)

THERE ARE ONLY 14 REMAIN CONSTITUENCIES IN LABOUR'S TOP 66 ENGLISH & WELSH TARGET SEATS.

The total voting numbers for the counting areas of the top 90 LTS, INCLUDING SCOTLAND, are 4,148,136 LEAVE, 3,971,410 REMAIN. Reminder: all of the 25 Scottish seats voted remain. (5/12)

It is clear that there is a HUGE majority for leave in the English & Welsh LTS.

Labour GAINED 30 seats in the 2017 G.E. Political casualties have accounted for a loss of 15 seats, leaving a net 247 seats. Labour need 79 GAINS for a simple majority. (6/12)

Labour's 25 most difficult Defences include FOUR of those political casualties, nos.: 2 - Dudley North, 6 - Barrow & Furness, 14 - Peterborough, and 25 - Sheffield Hallam.

SHEFFIELD HALLAM IS THE ONLY LIBDEM TARGET SEAT IN EITHER LIST. NB. (7/12)

There are 17 LEAVE constituencies, and 8 REMAIN in Labour's top 25 DEFENCES. 5 of these are Scottish seats, the SNP. ALL THE 17 LEAVE CONSTITUENCIES ARE IN ENGLAND & WALES.

THERE ARE ONLY 3 REMAIN CONSTITUENCIES IN LABOUR'S TOP 20 ENGLISH & WELSH DEFENCE SEATS.(8/12)

The total voting numbers for the counting areas of the most difficult 25 LDS, INCLUDING SCOTLAND, are 1,663,816 LEAVE, 1,580,577 REMAIN. Reminder: all of the 25 Scottish seats voted remain.

It is clear that there is a HUGE majority for leave in the English & Welsh LDS. (9/12)

The Conservatives, while having political casualties themselves, ALSO need 15 of Labour's most difficult Defence Seats to form a majority themselves. The Conservatives are wisely occupying a LEAVE position, and still retain enough infrastructure to get their vote out. (10/12)

It ought to be noted that most English and Welsh Conservative associations are very strongly LEAVE. The major worry that Labour face, is getting their own leave vote out. The indications from both the Local and the Euro elections, is that they are sitting on their hands. (11/12)

It is therefore of the utmost importance that, AT A BARE MINIMUM, @jeremycorbyn 's position receives the strongest possible support at Conference this week. The Shadow Cabinet NEEDS to be faced down. If possible, a pledge to campaign for LEAVE should be made. (Ends 12/12)

@IanLaveryMP , @RichardBurgon , @LenMcCluskey

@HackneyAbbott

@Hepworthclare FYI. 😊🌹✊🏻👍🏻

@LauraSmithMP

@jeremycorbyn @chelleryn99

@LamentablyAwake

@MCDownes5

@Aiannucci

@PeoplesMomentum Somebody needs to mark @jonlansman 's card. Urgently. 😒

@FightingGran

@georgegalloway

@unisontweets Somebody in your office really needs to read and understand this. Urgently. 😒

@jacknpeat

@LuckyHeronSay

@mattzarb @AaronBastani

@skwawkbox

@redflag3rd

@JamesEFoster

@DavePrentis

@toddogroats

@UKLabourRadlett

@AramazTolga

@ScouseGirlMedia @TheCurran73

@melanie_dudley

@BeckettUnite

@AnishaFaruk