Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Phase one trade deal: @BennSteil & @bdellarocca explained China has offered to buy $20b of US agricultural goods in return for Trump killing both his planned tariff hikes and a round of new tariffs on Chinese imports.

But it’s not an attractive offer. “The right way to evaluate China’s offer is to ask how much US farmers would have exported to China in 2020 had Trump never started his trade war”. The answer: $27b – “China would have bought over $7b more than what it is now offering”.

.@BaldingsWorld argued that the one thing you need to understand about this dispute is: “China is not going to change anything for you. Whether you ask nicely or rudely. Whether it is bilateral or multilateral. GOP or Democrat. It. Does. Not. Matter…Proceed accordingly”

He continued, if China will not change, then why have the dispute? Simple: it’s a “fight for which system we begin to accept as the global standard”. The US needs to invest more to reinforce our standard, but it is important we fight the Chinese standard.

UK General Election set for Dec 12: @A_Sloat explained that “voters will have a clear choice regarding the future of Brexit. One option is returning Johnson…[who] will seek to finalize Brexit & begin negotiating free trade agreements with the EU and US”.

She continued “alternatively, voters could opt for a Labour government. On Brexit, the party would seek to renegotiate a softer Brexit agreement before holding a second referendum”. Currently, polls show the Conservatives averaging an 11-point lead over Labour.

But, she warned, a clear choice may not translate into a clear Brexit outcome. “The elections could easily produce a hung Parliament or a coalition between Labour and one or more smaller parties” – injecting “further uncertainty” into the Brexit process.

Securing the oil: CNN reported that “confusion reigns over the US plan to 'secure the oil' in Syria as commanders await orders…The lack of precise orders means troops are on the ground while critical details are still being worked out”.

Further, the NYT reported that just as “waves of American troops are pulling out” of Syria, a “separate wave” is “pouring back in” to the oilfields. And those waves almost net out: the total number of troops will only change from 1,000 to 900.

Stepping back, @stephenwertheim highlighted that “about 200,000 American troops remain deployed worldwide, about the same as when Mr. Trump took office”. @DexterFergie argued this shows “Trump’s opposition to endless wars has always been more rhetorical than real”.

Three thought-provoking articles:

Michael Beckley argued that “China’s economic woes will make it a less competitive rival in the long term but a greater threat to the U.S. today. When rising powers have suffered such slowdowns in the past, they became more repressive at home & more aggressive abroad”.

“The signs…are easy to spot. China has built more than 50 ghost cities – sprawling metropolises of empty offices, apartments, & malls…Nationwide, more than 20% of homes are vacant. Excess capacity in major industries tops 30%: factories sit idle & goods rot in warehouses”.

Further, “China is about to experience the worst aging crisis in history”. It will lose 200m workers & gain 300m seniors in 30 years. “Any country that has accumulated debt, lost productivity, or aged [like China] has lost at least one decade to near-zero economic growth”.

.@russia_matters reported that @bobham88 sees three reasons to be optimistic about the war in Ukraine: (i) The exhaustion & frustration of people in the Donbas mean there’s a chance Kyiv could win them over by showing it can give them a better life than the separatists

(ii) Russian public opinion has shifted over the past few years, with growing dissatisfaction over the Kremlin’s engagement in expensive foreign adventures & (iii) Ukraine’s new president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has the makings of a bridge figure.

He recommended: (i) abandoning dreams of a military solution (ii) reaching out to residents of separatist-controlled areas & (iii) investing in eastern parts of Kyiv-controlled Ukraine while making it easier for people living under the separatists to cross the line of contact.

.@devintstewart & @Joshua_Eisenman argued “China’s global critics are helping it win”. Beijing won’t tolerate dissent at home. But – contrary to the stereotype of a rigid & ossified dictatorship – when foreigners criticize its geopolitical tactics, it listens.

For example, with the Belt & Road, “Beijing has made some wise course corrections to ensure that the debt trap warnings have gone unrealized”. Hambantota Port remains the only known case of China taking control of a project & that was at Colombo’s urging, not Beijing’s.

Of course, China still has a “reflexively rigid reaction to any foreign criticism of [China’s] domestic policies. But on foreign policy, it will take into account foreign critiques, and incorporate them to strengthen its policies, and improve its geopolitical competitiveness.

Three events to watch in the near future:

South American Protests: @MoisesNaim & @BrazilBrian argued that “in a world aflame with protest, Latin America stands out as a raging ten-alarm fire. From Bolivia to Ecuador, Haiti to Honduras, [we] have seen enormous, sometimes violent demonstrations”.

“The protests now raging…originated from different sparks but are connected by a single common denominator: economic malaise. On average, Latin American & Caribbean economies will grow just 0.2% in 2019, the worst performance of any major region in the world”.

And it’ll be hard for regional political leaders to implement solutions: “On the one hand, their constituents demand that they take immediate, sweeping action…On the other…these leaders have lousy approval ratings that will make passing legislation extremely difficult”.

Iran Deal Breaches? Per Stratfor, “Iran previously has taken calibrated steps away from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal in response to the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign”.

They continued, “Tehran has warned it will take another step this month, with Nov. 7 the expected date”. If the EU countries judge this breach significant enough, they “could trigger the nuclear deal's dispute mechanism, which could end with the return of U.N. sanctions”.

TikTok hearings: @karaafrederick argued that the US has been accustomed to exporting its values of openness & transparency. But with the success of Chinese app TikTok in the US, that values transfer is going in the wrong direction: the US is “now importing Chinese censorship”.

She continued, TikTok is engaging in censorship “masquerading as content moderation”. And the risk is, with TikTok’s “skyrocketing popularity” within America’s geographic borders, we’re “essentially inuring an entire generation [of American teens] to this great firewall”.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word. We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors