Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Syria: @stephenWalt argued let’s not lose sight of the big picture: US Syria policy has been a "failure for years”. It was “rife with contradictions & unlikely to produce a significantly better outcome no matter how long the US stayed”.

He continued: “As depressing as it is…acknowledging Assad’s victory & accepting his authority in Syria is the least bad option at this point”. The reality is (i)Assad has won (ii) Assad will purge ISIS & (iii) Syria is hardly a major strategic prize; the US has other priorities

As for the Kurds, “Once the Islamic State was under control…the U.S.-[Kurdish] partnership was on borrowed time” as: (i) the partnership was always tactical & conditional, not open ended & absolute & (ii) the Kurds have long been a red line for Turkey.

Trump however bears “complete responsibility” for the “chaotic” way in which he has gone about things. It is “not easy” to simultaneously abandon the Kurds AND further strain relations with Turkey, “but the bumbler in chief has managed to find a way”.

TikTok: the NYT reported that “the social media app where users post short funny videos, usually set to music...is enjoying a surge in popularity among teenagers around the world”. Per SensorTower, it has been downloaded 1.4 billion times.

The only problem, argued @tombschrader, is that the TikTok is run by a Chinese company. “When [these kids] get older and start turning to expressing themselves politically, they’ll be expressing themselves on a platform run by a company beholden to the CCP”.

He continued, “TikTok has the potential to be a powerful tool for the CCP to censor information and manipulate discourse outside China. A recent leak of TikTok's content regulation guidelines to the Guardian newspaper suggests that censorship is already happening”.

HK Human Rights & Democracy Act: per Stratfor, the US House of Reps passed an act which requires the US to review annually whether HK "is sufficiently autonomous to justify special treatment by the US" & allows sanctions against officials responsible for violating HK's autonomy.

They continued, “The U.S. Senate is expected to pass the bill in the coming weeks, but…Trump could veto the measure…China has been betting on Trump's relative restraint over Hong Kong to avoid additional policy pressures or threats that could disrupt trade talks”.

They continued, “the bill's targeting of China's Hong Kong policy provides the White House critical leverage vis-a-vis Beijing”. However, the US “will tread carefully around HK's special status, as it works in favor of U.S. businesses”.

Three thought-provoking articles:

Ambassador Bill Burns lamented the Trump administration’s undercutting of U.S. diplomats. “I’ve never seen an attack on diplomacy as damaging, to both the State Department as an institution and our international influence, as the one now underway”.

He continued “the practical consequences are not hard to discern. If a U.S. ambassador doesn’t speak for the president, and the embassy is seen as an enemy of the White House, why would the local government take seriously its diplomatic messages?”

“Why use official channels rather than speak directly to the president’s…grifting confidants?” And why pursue official U.S. objectives, when it’s easier to simply “strok[e] the president’s vanity?”. Trump’s “actions distort diplomatic practice & decapitate the American interest”

Minxin Pei argued that “Chinese officials have strong incentives to demonstrate their loyalty to the [CCP]”, through actions such as bullying the NBA. That decision “was more than likely taken by a party apparatchik eager to curry favour with CCP superiors”.

With these incentives “hardwired into the Chinese system, such [bullying] behaviour is likely to continue” – even where it’s not strategic. And it’ll cost China dearly: the more friends China turns into enemies the easier it will be for the US to assemble a coalition against it.

.@Chellaneyargued that “one of Asia’s oldest democracies may be in jeopardy. Sri Lanka’s presidential election next month is expected to bring to power another member of the Rajapaksa family, whose affinity for authoritarianism, violence, and corruption is well known”.

Worse, the last Rajapaska in power “allowed for the swift expansion of Chinese influence in Sri Lanka”. Another is “welcome news for China, which hopes to turn [Sri Lanka] into a [Chinese] military outpost. But it is bad news for practically everyone else”.

Three events to watch in the near future:

Lebanon protests: @bassel67 explained the protests were triggered by a planned WhatsApp tax, but the underlying anger goes far deeper. Lebanese have been struggling with mounting economic crises, including stagflation, public debt, gasoline stoppages, & ATM outages.

He continued, “protesters are angry about the decision to increase a range of taxes — even on what should be free WhatsApp calls — rather than clamping down on rampant clientelism and corruption inside, as well as outside, state institutions”.

Per Lauren Williams, the government has now made some concessions, including revoking the tax. Going forward, “if [Lebanese PM] Hariri resigns, the governing coalition will once again be left scrambling to form a cabinet & will most likely hand Hezbollah even greater control”.

Brexit: per Stratfor, “after weeks of negotiations, the EU and the UK have reached a deal for an orderly Brexit, but the agreement includes some provisions (particularly over the Irish border) that many British lawmakers will find hard to digest”.

They continued, the deal includes provisions to maintain an open Irish border: Northern Ireland will follow EU norms & standards for goods. And British tariffs will apply to products entering Northern Ireland from third countries as long as they do not enter the EU single market.

Per @A_Sloat, there’s now “another complicated week ahead on Brexit”, including questions about (i) what parliament will vote on (ii) if there is sufficient support for Boris’ deal & (iii) efforts to add a customs union to the Withdrawal Agreement.

@A_Sloat Canadian Elections: Tyler Kustra argued that “The race is tied – and still boring…Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is now neck and neck with Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives, polling at 31% and 32%, respectively”. But “despite Trudeau’s blackface scandals, it’s all been pretty dull”.

He continued, the most likely outcome is a minority government. “Right now, seat projections suggest the Liberals will win 137 seats and the Conservatives 125. As a result, the major parties will have to forge alliances with smaller parties to determine who forms a government”.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word. We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors