Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Impeachment Hearings: Bill Burns argued that in their testimonies, “Bill Taylor, George Kent, & Masha Yovanovitch demonstrated professionalism, integrity, & plainspoken courage”. They “upheld their oaths to the Constitution”

He continued, they’ve reminded us that the real threat to US democracy is not an imagined deep state: it’s a “weak state” of hollowed-out institutions – no longer able to effectively compete internationally, or uphold the fragile guardrails of US democracy.

And Trump has is making headway on that hollowing out: it’s not just his “bureaucratic arson, such as the systematic sidelining of career officers or historic proposed budget cuts”. It’s “the cronyism & corruption” that we now “see on full & gory display in the Ukraine scandal”.

Xinjiang Papers: 400 pages of leaked docs provided a look into the genocide. The details: Xi personally laid the groundwork for it in a series of speeches delivered in private in Xinjiang in April 2014. He called for a “struggle against terrorism” showing “absolutely no mercy”.

China also looked for international exemplars in designing the program. “Officials argued that [terrorist] attacks in Britain resulted from policies that put ‘human rights above security,’ and Mr. Xi urged the party to emulate aspects of America’s ‘war on terror’”.

And there have been some heroic local officials who pushed back. They offered resistance fearing “it would exacerbate ethnic tensions & stifle economic growth”. One was even “jailed after quietly releasing thousands of inmates from the camps”.

Trump-Erdogan “fence-mending” meeting: per @A_Sloat, there was dialogue between all sides, there was continued pledges of further dialogue, but there weren’t any major breakthrough on (i) the situation in Syria or (ii) Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles.

.@stevenacook added that “it’s clear that the two sides are not close” on the S-400s. But “as long as dialogue continues though, Trump will likely be able to hold off Congress, where some lawmakers are pressing for sanctions against Turkey for going ahead with the purchase”.

.@wrightr argued “Turkey is now a US ally in name only”. In recent years it has allowed jihadis to slip across its borders to join militant groups; invaded Syria to fight U.S. allies; cozied up to Russia; & cooperated with Iran. And Erdoğan has become more repressive at home.

The U.S. is now “reconfiguring strategy” around Turkey – including “pre-positioning its assets in other countries”. This means “more military ties with Romania on the Black Sea; with Greece, Cyprus, & Israel in the eastern Mediterranean; & with Jordan & Iraq in the Middle East”.

Three thought-provoking articles:

.@ANewman_forward & @dhnexon argued that America should better weaponize its market power to progressive ends. By making access to the world’s most attractive market more conditional, it can influence international standards; terms of trade; & decisions made by firms.

This involves behaving more like China – but for the right reasons. Instead of blocking access to its market for those critical of its foreign policy, it should threaten to block access for firms which don’t meet certain environmental standards, or which evade tax.

In practical terms, this could involve doing things like (i) decoupling tax havens from the global economy (if the U.S. can decouple Iran, it can decouple Panama) & (ii) requiring car manufacturers to meet better emissions standards to sell into the U.S. market.

.@sdonnan & @jendeben reported that twenty months into Trump’s trade war, “what began as method now looks more and more like madness. A tit-for-tat tariff war has ensnared more than 70% of bilateral trade in goods and raised the specter of a [US-China] decoupling”.

They continued, the next “tariff round could jeopardize America’s record-long expansion, according to some economists”. And “as it stands, the existing duties will knock 0.8% off global growth in 2020, according to recent forecasts from the IMF”.

“Trump sees [the forthcoming ‘phase one’ deal] as the start of a more comprehensive agreement. But Chinese officials quietly say they see any future successful phases as unlikely & that commodity purchases will at first simply be at the level they were before the Trump tariffs”.

.@gideonrachman argued that the world’s democracies are desperate to believe in India. From Washington to Tokyo…the country is viewed as an indispensable counterbalance to China…The west’s investment in India is now strategic, emotional, intellectual and financial”.

But, he continued, “the sunk costs of that investment mean that western countries are reluctant to acknowledge the dark side of Mr Modi’s India — in particular, [Modi’s] threats to minority [especially Muslim] rights and the erosion of democratic norms”.

And, “the danger is that the west is embracing a comforting illusion—that democratic India will act as an ideological bulwark against authoritarian China. The reality is that India’s slide into illiberalism may actually be strengthening the global trend towards authoritarianism”.

Three events to watch in the near future:

Trump shakes down US Asian allies: per Foreign Policy, Trump is asking Japan to “cough up four times” more money to offset the cost of the US troop presence there. CNN reported South Korea is getting similar treatment. Per @NarangVipin: “nothing says I love you like a shakedown”.

.@MiraRappHooper argued that “an arbitrary & coercive 500% hike” on allied South Korea – while our shared adversary of North Korea builds new capabilities by the week – “tells you all you need to know. Trump is unravelling our alliances from within when they are needed most”.

But, @ALanoszka argued that the hikes “wont happen” & “change will be modest” as (i) Trump is weak and will face too much resistance from the State Dept, DOD, & the Senate & (ii) The strategic imperative is also not there given the need to balance China.

Japan-South Korea Intel-Sharing Pact expires? While the US has been busy shaking down Japan & South Korea it’s made little headway in resolving the ongoing – and historically rooted – dispute between the two. One symptom of that is the likely expiry of an intel-sharing pact.

Per Stratfor, “South Korea shows every sign of sticking to its plan to leave the pact when it expires next week unless Japan lifts trade restrictions on key exports. But Japan wants South Korea to first renounce the claims to wartime compensation that sparked this trade row”.

Hong Kong: the violence is escalating, with police having laid siege to a university campus. Per @BeijingPalmer, “showdowns between police and protesters, once limited to weekends, have become a 24-hour affair in Hong Kong. And the police are increasingly using live fire”.

He continued, “meanwhile, since returning from Beijing…Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s rhetoric has become more extreme, including describing the protesters as “enemies of the people.” The violence will only get worse as peaceful protest becomes harder to achieve”.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word. We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors