Weekly Geopolitical Brief
Three stories:
30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall: Andrew Bacevich argued “Three decades into this era of ostensible American primacy, we are in a position to assess what it has yielded. The results, to put it mildly, have been disappointing”.
Three stories:
30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall: Andrew Bacevich argued “Three decades into this era of ostensible American primacy, we are in a position to assess what it has yielded. The results, to put it mildly, have been disappointing”.
“The era’s defining characteristics [have been] the emergence of China as a great power, Europe’s long fade into geopolitical irrelevance, much of the greater Middle East succumbing to violence and instability, and a too little, too late response to climate change”.
This record shows that the “American model of global leadership has tended to be either irrelevant or counterproductive”. So, “the anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall offers an occasion not for celebration but for somber and long overdue reflection”.
Macron on NATO: The Economist asked whether Macron “believed in the effectiveness of Article V, the idea that if one NATO member is attacked all would come to its aid – which underpins the alliance’s deterrence effect. ‘I don’t know,’ he replie[d].”
Macron continued, NATO “‘only works if the guarantor of last resort functions as such. I’d argue that we should reassess the reality of what NATO is in the light of the commitment of the U.S.’ And America, in his view, shows signs of ‘turning its back on us’”.
.@shashj argued “I cannot imagine how Macron could possibly have thrown a bigger stink-bomb towards NATO ahead of the London summit of leaders in December. Extraordinary words, and extraordinary timing”. @JimGoldgeier added “the interview is a stunner”.
Goldgeier continued, “with a lack of leadership elsewhere in the alliance, Macron’s dire assessment seems designed to galvanize Europeans to follow him on the path of building an EU capability not reliant on an absent US. But who can he get to follow him? Especially after this.”
India opts out of trade deal: @AyresAlyssa explained that India’s decision not to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was in line with its longstanding position of “reluctance to reduce its own tariffs, while seeking greater services market access from other[s]”.
She continued, Modi’s reluctance to reduce India’s tariffs is “understandable” given recent news of slowing Indian growth and rising unemployment. The move could have resulted in “further short-term economic and political backlash”.
But long-term, Modi needs to take the “tough decision” to open up India’s economy & make it “more globally competitive”. Otherwise, it is “hard to see where India is headed”. By staying out of regional pacts like these, India risks missing out on trade with those who opt in.
Three thought-provoking articles:
.@HillmanJE argued that effective US economic competition with China “requires more nuance than a good-vs.-evil framework allows”. That framework “avoid[s] difficult questions about why domestic companies are struggling. It replaces introspection with condemnation”.
Further, that framework lends itself to closing off the US economy: “a sense of unfairness often leads to replicating the unfair behavior. Tariffs to meet tariffs, subsidies to meet subsidies, and other regulations designed to advantage domestic companies”.
But “America’s openness is what makes our system work — and it mandates that we fight our economic battles offensively rather than defensively. Openness brings the world’s brightest minds to U.S. universities and research labs, fueling American innovation.”
.@Joe_Nye argued that “while Putin has been a successful tactician in restoring Russia’s presence on the world stage, he has not been a skillful strategist in addressing the country’s long-term [economic and demographic] problems”.
Under Putin, Russia has seen many tactical successes. It has replaced the US in Syria; used force effectively in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014; used cyber means to disrupt the US & other elections; and manoeuvred to align itself with China.
“Appearances, however, can be deceptive…Behind the adventurism, [Russia] is a country in decline”. It has corrupt institutions & serious demographic & health problems. Its GDP is one seventh of China’s, and it worries about becoming the China-Russia alliance’s junior partner.
.@TangAnZhu argued that China’s global influence campaign is backfiring. “China’s pressure on global businesses…may succeed in getting companies to revise websites & censor employees’ personal opinions, but it is not improving the way…societies view China”.
Rather, China’s overbearing campaign is “forcing countries to re-examine their relationships with China, more closely analyse Chinese government intentions, & clearly identify the values being challenged”. Countries are now resisting & recalibrating relations with Beijing.
He continued, “China’s global influence campaign could ultimately have a positive effect if it forces countries to…focus on themselves and what they value most, leading them to more actively resist coercion and assert their interests in engagements with China”.
Three events to watch in the near future:
Erdogan goes to the Whitehouse: William Roebuck argued that “Turkey’s military operation in northern Syria…represents an intentioned-laced effort at ethnic cleansing…[It] damaged [U.S.] credibility & has significantly destabilized northeastern Syria”.
He continued, The US “should insist Turkey bear all the diplomatic and reputational costs for this venture and seek to prevent President Erdogan from flooding this de-populated zone with Syrian Arab refugees in Turkey”.
But the U.S. should also “maintain the relationship with Turkey. Insisting an ally pay all the diplomatic and reputational costs…for a military operation that directly damaged our interests is not the same as dispensing with a valued bilateral relationship”.
Iran tensions: @ilangoldenberg argued that “Rouhani’s [recent] announcement that Iran will start spinning 1000 centrifuges…is by far the most significant step Iran has taken outside the JCPOA and another sign that Trump’s maximum pressure campaign is failing”.
@ilangoldenberg He continued, “Rouhani has been trying to slow roll Iranian violations with symbolic steps outside of the JCPOA to amp up diplomatic pressure without going so far as to trigger a major international response. A real question now is did Iran go too far?”
Xi in Greece: per Stratfor, “just days after Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis returned home from a visit to China, Chinese President Xi Jinping…arrive[d] in Athens as part of an effort to solidify the [China-Greece] relationship”.
They continued, “Xi's visit will focus heavily on trade & investments…as Beijing seeks to cement closer cooperation with Athens to diffuse EU criticism against China”. And Xi is building on ‘success’: Greece infamously vetoed EU criticism of China’s Human Rights record in 2017.
Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word. We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.
Have a great week!
The Ambassador’s Brief Editors
Have a great week!
The Ambassador’s Brief Editors
