Andrew Ellison Profile picture
Nov 5, 2019 18 tweets 5 min read Read on X
I'm going to use this thread to discuss the results for Indiana as they come in tonight. I'll share any notable flips or key developments as they come in. You can follow along with the results at the following link. #ElectionTwitter

indianaenr.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/site/index.html
Initial questions for tonight: Will Dems be able to make pickups in the Indianapolis/Carmel city councils? Will Dems be able to hold onto power in fading blue collar cities like Kokomo and Anderson? Can Dems flip favorable cities like Portage and West Lafayette?
With 24% of the vote in for Logansport Mayor, Republican Chris Martin currently leads incumbent Democratic Mayor Dave Kitchell 1042-985 (51.4-48.6). Tough start in that race. This is a key race to watch.
Wow! Dem Thomas Dolezal is leading Rep Brett Curnutt for Tipton Mayor 768-516 (59.8-40.2). Fairly Republican city between Kokomo and Indy suburbs where we haven't competed for some time (we ran no one in 2015!). This would be a notable (but quite small) pickup for Dems.
Total blowout for Dems in Kokomo. Rep Tyler Moore has defeated Dem Abbie Smith 9,922-4,550 (68.2-31.3) for this open mayoral seat. The city council has flipped from 7-2 Dem to 9-0 Republican. Democrats are completely shut out after 12 years of control.

It is the end of an era.
The margins for the other races in Kokomo are absolutely brutal. The incumbent clerk, who has been there since *1992*, lost 61-39. All five Dem incumbents running for re-election served 12-16 years. All blown out. This was an explicitly anti-Dem election night in Kokomo.
🚨MASSIVE Dem flip!🚨 Dem Emily Styron has unseated incumbent Republican Zionsville Mayor 4,035-3,947 (50.6-49.4). These are the northwest suburbs of Indy that are pushing Boone County hard left. This is part of IN-05 and is very reassuring for Christina Hale's chances in 2020!
Dems have lost control of Muncie government. Rep Dan Ridenour defeated Dem Terry Whitt Bailey 61.5-36.8. Republicans won the clerk's office 51.3-48.7; districts 1, 4, and all three at-large seats for a 5-4 council majority. This is a 58-36 Donnelly city. Total Dem blowout. Image
Dem Fort Wayne Mayor Tom Henry has been re-elected 61.2-38.8 to a fourth term. Republicans narrowly retained city clerk 51.7-48.3 and council district 4 51.3-48.7. Notably, Dems picked up two of the three at-large council seats, narrowing Republicans to a 5-4 council majority.
🚨Big!🚨Democrats currently lead for control of Columbus' city council. We've flipped both at-large seats, and we flipped district 2 866-582 (60-40). However, we lead in district 1 by just 1 vote out of 600 votes. This will definitely be going to a recount. Big deal either way.
🚨Hamilton County gains!🚨 Democrats flipped the Carmel West District 56-44, and they snagged an at-large seat and the North Central seat in Fishers. These are historic Dem gains in a historically blood red county. This continues to bode well for Christina Hale in IN-05!
Republican West Lafayette Mayor John Dennis has been re-elected to a fourth term 76-24 against an Independent candidate. Democrats have been elected to an 8-1 council majority. This is the home of Purdue University. Once Dennis retires, this mayorship will flip to us.
Dems have put up a *very* strong performance in Indy tonight. Mayor Joe Hogsett has been re-elected by an unprecedented 71-27 spread. Dems flipped council districts 2, 4, 5, 6, and 16, suburban gains that bode well for Christina Hale. 🚨Dems gained 5 seats for a 19-6 majority.🚨
Anderson was a bright spot for Dems in an otherwise rough night in East Central Indiana. Dem Mayor Thomas Broderick has been re-elected 55-36 (elected 51.6-48.4 in 2015), and we've elected a 7-2 Dem council majority. This is another key part of the #IN05 coalition for Hale.
I'll be posting more and doing a big breakdown of the fallout tomorrow, but my biggest takeaway from the Indiana results tonight: Democrats have put up unprecedented numbers throughout all of #IN05 tonight, and @HaleIndy 's chances are looking better and better each day.
@HaleIndy 🚨Elkhart Dems have come roaring back!🚨 In 2015, Republicans won the mayorship 64-36 and a 7-2 council majority. Tonight, Dem Rod Roberson was elected Elkhart's first black mayor by a 56-44 spread, and Dems now have a 5-4 council majority!
@HaleIndy Goshen Dems had an okay night. Dem Mayor Jeremy Stutsman was uncontested for a second term tonight, and Dems flipped the clerk-treasurer office 54-46. However, Republicans are leading in district 3 by one vote (248-247), which could flip the council in their favor. Recount time.
@HaleIndy I'm wrapping up for tonight. I'll do an extensive follow-up tomorrow. Main takeaways for Dems: took a beating in North Central/East Central Indiana; unprecedented gains in the Indy metro; decent numbers in northern Indiana; #IN05 is looking better every day. Thanks for following!

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More from @AndrewPEllison

Jan 7, 2021
Tonight, after an attempted insurrection by Trump-supporting rioters, House Republicans still voted 121-83 to overturn Arizona's electoral votes. Democrats unanimously opposed this motion, causing it to fail 121-303. Notably, at least 33 previous supporters flipped to no votes.
The Republicans who previous supported lawsuits and objections, but voted no tonight, that stand out to me include Greg Pence (IN-06), Elise Stefanik (NY-21), Dan Crenshaw (TX-02), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), and most Pennsylvania Republicans, among many others.
There's a small possibility that a previous public supporter who flipped to a no vote tonight may have slipped through the cracks, because they weren't included on the lists I checked or for some other reason, but I think I got everyone.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 14, 2020
The results of our crowdsourced SurveyUSA Indiana poll are officially in, showing a single-digit presidential race, strong support for cannabis legalization and Roe v. Wade, and much more! Read the thread below for results and analysis! Link with crosstabs at the end. (1/25)
As a primer, SurveyUSA divides Indiana into four distinct regions for crosstab analysis. I've created this graphic to help visualize these four regions, along with the 2018 US Senate results by region for comparison, which show the benchmarks each party needs to reach. (2/25) Image
US President (Indiana)

Donald Trump (R): 49%
Joe Biden (D): 42%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 6%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(3/25)
Read 25 tweets
Sep 21, 2020
I think almost everyone underestimates how much Eric Holcomb is collapsing with conservative Indiana voters due to his mask mandate because the Governor's race has received zero national coverage. I think the Libertarian nominee likely has double-digit support right now. (1/25)
As a refresher, Eric Holcomb represents the establishment, "moderate" wing of the Indiana GOP. He was Mitch Daniels' deputy chief of staff, Indiana GOP Chairman (2011-2013), and Dan Coats' state chief of staff. Holcomb is a consummate insider. (2/25)
indystar.com/story/news/pol…
When Coats announced his retirement in March 2015, Holcomb left to run for his Senate seat. The campaign never got off the ground, with no grassroots support and much of the GOP establishment backing Todd Young to stop Tea Partier Marlin Stutzman. (3/25)
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Read 26 tweets
Sep 18, 2020
There has been much discussion in recent years about abolishing the Electoral College. #OTD 51 years ago, the US House approved an amendment 338-70 to abolish the EC and establish a two-round popular vote system. I created this map to show the partisan/regional breakdown. (1/7) Image
In the 1968 election, Richard Nixon won 301 electoral votes (56%), but only won 43.4% of the popular vote, beating Hubert Humphrey by 0.7%. After the similarly close 1960 election, this created concern about the Electoral College and spurred reform. (2/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Unit…
The Bayh-Celler amendment would have established a two-round popular vote system. The party who received the highest national popular vote would win the presidency if they won at least 40%. If no party won 40%, a runoff election would be held. (3/7)
library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/docu…
Read 8 tweets
Aug 31, 2020
In November 2019, Indiana held elections for mayor, clerk, and city council in all 120 cities (plus the town of Zionsville) plus hundreds of town elections. Dems made big city council gains in the Indy metro; Republicans won big in North Central and East Central Indiana. (1/7) Image
Dem mayoral flips include the Obama 2008 cities of Elkhart, Portage, Decatur, Tell City, and Dunkirk; and the McCain 2008 cities of Zionsville, Washington, Charlestown, Scottsburg, and Tipton. Big gains in Indianapolis, Carmel, Fishers, and Columbus city councils as well. (2/7)
Republican mayoral flips include the Obama 2008 cities of Muncie, Kokomo, Michigan City, Logansport, Connersville, Peru, Portland, Hartford City, Alexandria, Winchester, Oakland City, Rockport, and Jasonville, all predominantly white working class cities amenable to Trump. (3/7)
Read 8 tweets
Aug 22, 2020
(1/7) Here is my extended thread on the #MO01 Democratic primary. On August 4, activist @CoriBush defeated 10-term incumbent Lacy Clay in a rematch of their 2018 bout. Bush dropped some in her southwest base, but improved everywhere else, especially in Clay's northeast base. Image
(2/7) #MO01 has distinct racial divides due to the legacy of redlining and white flight. The famed Delmar Divide splits the district into distinct northern and southern halves. Note that Cori Bush has done better in the south, while Lacy Clay has done better in the north. Image
(3/7) Arguably an even bigger #MO01 dividing line between Lacy Clay and Cori Bush is educational attainment. In 2018, note that pockets of white voters with fewer Bachelor's degrees in the far south and northwest still voted for Clay. They mostly swung toward Bush in 2020. Image
Read 7 tweets

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