I think the commentariat is exaggerating the tensions between the EU member-states in the phase TWO of the #Brexit talks. #thread
1. If Tories win (and if they win big) the Council could agree a negotiating mandate already in February. It is no secret that the Commission has already drafted the negotiating directives.
2. The baseline scenario for the EU will be that Johnson does not want an extension of the transition and hence that both sides have eleven months to strike a future FTA. What the officials and politicians privately think and hope is a totally different matter.
3. The time pressure will focus minds. After all no-deal 2.0 is not only bad for the UK but also damaging for the EU 27.
Another factor which will influence EU’s position is the level of ambition presented by the UK government. So far, much suggests that another Tory UK government would not be particularly ambitious. This will make it easier for the member-states to agree a common position.
5. I am not saying that there will be no differences of opinions among the MS. Those who followed no-deal contingency discussions in the article 50 working party will know that EU capitals squabbled over say - road transport or financial services.
6. But they overcomed these differences among others thanks to conciliation skills of Didier Seeuws. This is why there is a growing consensus that at least for the next year the EU should keep similar negotiating structures to those designed for the withdrawal talks.
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1. It has been a while since I did a #thread on #Brexit but as baby Janina is napping I thought I would offer my two cents. The IMB has naturally undermined the trust that the deal can be reached and has a potential of derailing the talks.
2. Whereas the EU is naturally frustrated with UK's move some folks I have talked to think that the deal is still possible... under condition that the IMB is revised respectively.
3. Some of the involved in the talks think that Johnson is believed to prefer a deal from a no-deal scenario but they acknowledge that there are mounting challenges ahead of the negotiators.
The EU and the UK have finished the first round of their negotiations on the future relationship. So what do we know so far? #thread
1. Each side has delegated around 110-120 people for these negotiations. The EU has drawn from expertise of 22 EC DG, EEAS and the Council SecGen.
2. Although the talks differ from the article 50 negotiations the EU will keep similar negotiating structures. I have written about this here: encompass-europe.com/comment/eu-sti…
Having read both mandates I can say with full confidence: governance will be one of the most contentious points in #brexit talks. Short #thread
First of all, ‘the coherent structure and overall governance framework’ are already listed in the chapter called ‘purpose of the envisaged relationship’ suggesting that the EU treats this issue v. seriously.
Why is it important for the EU? There are at least 3 reasons: a) an umbrella governance gives the parties greater flexibility to add on new elements to the partnership in the future, b) it helps to avoid the Swiss saga related to dealing with a number of bilateral agreements
@Radio_TOK_FM 2. Rozporządzenie, o którym mowa nie wymaga jednomyślności - jest to tzw. akt towarzyszący, który wypełni ramy WRF o których zdecydują liderzy. ALE...ale...
@Radio_TOK_FM 3. liderzy zdecydowali, że w ramach głównych negocjacji dot. WRF (jednomyslność) zajmą się min. kontrowersyjnym zapisem dot. tzw. odwroconej większości kwalifikowanej według którego KE mogłaby zadecydować o zamrożeniu środków CHYBA, ŻE Rada zdecyduje inaczej.
A #thread on how the EU is preparing for the second phase of the #Brexit negotiations based on my latest bulletin piece. @CER_EU
@CER_EU 1. The latest polls show that Tories might not only emerge as the biggest party after elections but also have a comfortable majority in the Commons. If this is the case the UK will probably leave the EU by the end of January 31st.
@CER_EU 2. As you will know Johnson has argued that 11 months is enough to negotiate a future partnership with the EU. The EU-27 thinks it is a tall order but it is already establishing new negotiating structures to be able to start the talks as soon as possible.
I have to disagree with @anandMenon1 here. The 'EU unity mantra' was well thought through, boosted its negotiating hand and will most likely be maintained in the second phase. I will dwell on several Anand's points in the below #thread.
@anandMenon1 1. I would challenge the notion that EU has been inflexible. Yes, it has stuck to its guiding negotiating principles (recipe for its success) but it also showed some flexibility in the process itself. The final text of the NI protocol is clear indication of it.
@anandMenon1 2. EU member-states made a strategic decision to put the Commission in a driving seat- it represents EU's general interests and even the MS which have recently resented the influence of the community institutions (eg. Poland) were from day one in favour of the EC' s lead.