1. It has been a while since I did a #thread on #Brexit but as baby Janina is napping I thought I would offer my two cents. The IMB has naturally undermined the trust that the deal can be reached and has a potential of derailing the talks. 2. Whereas the EU is naturally frustrated with UK's move some folks I have talked to think that the deal is still possible... under condition that the IMB is revised respectively.

The EU and the UK have finished the first round of their negotiations on the future relationship. So what do we know so far? #thread 1. Each side has delegated around 110-120 people for these negotiations. The EU has drawn from expertise of 22 EC DG, EEAS and the Council SecGen.

Having read both mandates I can say with full confidence: governance will be one of the most contentious points in #brexit talks. Short #thread First of all, ‘the coherent structure and overall governance framework’ are already listed in the chapter called ‘purpose of the envisaged relationship’ suggesting that the EU treats this issue v. seriously.

Ten temat pojawia się w zdecydowanej większości dyskusji, w tym w moim ulubionym @Radio_TOK_FM więc pokuszę się o krótki komentarz #thread

https://twitter.com/TomaszBielecki/status/1217771712533749761

@Radio_TOK_FM 2. Rozporządzenie, o którym mowa nie wymaga jednomyślności - jest to tzw. akt towarzyszący, który wypełni ramy WRF o których zdecydują liderzy. ALE...ale...

I think the commentariat is exaggerating the tensions between the EU member-states in the phase TWO of the #Brexit talks. #thread 1. If Tories win (and if they win big) the Council could agree a negotiating mandate already in February. It is no secret that the Commission has already drafted the negotiating directives.

A #thread on how the EU is preparing for the second phase of the #Brexit negotiations based on my latest bulletin piece. @CER_EU @CER_EU 1. The latest polls show that Tories might not only emerge as the biggest party after elections but also have a comfortable majority in the Commons. If this is the case the UK will probably leave the EU by the end of January 31st.

I have to disagree with @anandMenon1 here. The 'EU unity mantra' was well thought through, boosted its negotiating hand and will most likely be maintained in the second phase. I will dwell on several Anand's points in the below #thread.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1196688836002230273

@anandMenon1 1. I would challenge the notion that EU has been inflexible. Yes, it has stuck to its guiding negotiating principles (recipe for its success) but it also showed some flexibility in the process itself. The final text of the NI protocol is clear indication of it.

A #thread on Johnson's yesterday's proposal. Disclaimer- I am in bed with a flu so if something does not sound 100% convincing or if you see any typos you will know why. 1. UK's gov. narrative has significantly changed. Whereas May was committed to objectives of the backstop - particularly all-island economy and no hardening of a border Johnson is recognising that there will be customs checks even though he wants to do them away from the border.

My belated #thread about the new European Commission College Structure. 1. The Commission president-elect followed Juncker's example and organised her team commissioners in 'commissioners groups' (previously called project teams') which will work towards delivering her 6 priorities.

I have finished reading von der Leyen's political guidelines for the next Commission. A short #thread which I will build on in the next weeks or so. 1. I like the way she grouped individual policy fields under 6 policy priorities. I would not be surprised if they constituted the core principles for building her college 'team projects' or whatever she decides to call them.

In half an hour @vonderleyen will make a last ditch effort to convince MEPs to back her candidacy for the European Commission. The vote- unless the EP president puts the last minute amendment- will take place in the evening. #Thread 1. There are various controversies around her candidacy. Some say that she has had bad track record as a defense minister in Germany and that she has limited knowledge about other important EU dossiers.

On June 24th @EUCourtPress ruled that the decision of the PL gov to lower retirement age for Supreme Court's judges breach the principles of the irremovability of judges & judicial independence. Although gov. revised rules since EC opened the case the ruling matters. #Thread 1. It effectively undermines the gov narrative that the EU, let alone ECJ, has no right to intervene in what PiS sees as domestic issues.

Why is there in principle low interest in #EP2019 across member-states? A short #thread before I dash for Saturday barbecue. 1. You might often hear that the turnout in the EP elections has been falling (to reach record low -42.6 per cent) due to a growing disconnect between average EU citizens and 'far away Brussels'. But take such a response -likely coming from eurosceptics- with a pinch of salt.

1. As lead candidates are gearing up for the #telleurope debate tonight I thought I would do a mini #thread on how I see the @Europarl_EN elections playing out. 2. One of the problems with these elections is that they are seen as 'second-order' elections and attract little public interest. Ever since 1979 the turnout has been decreasing and in 2014 reached record low 43 %.

My understanding of where things stand is slightly different. short #thread

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1085589772817580032

First, the EU is in the waiting mode (again).

.@SadiqKhan has told @MichelBarnier that EU should start preparations for extending art 50 talks just in case Westm votes down #Brexit deal &instructs GOV to hold a referendum: theguardian.com/politics/2018/…; here's is #thread why LONGER extension than 4-6 weeks isn't straightforward 1. Academic research by @ConUnit_UCL suggests that one needs around 6 M to hold referendum; the preparations to hold a vote include eg. pushing through legislation, assessing intelligibility of the Q on the ballot, preparing polling stations and securing the time for the campaign

President Macron gave an interview to PL, CZ, SK & HU newspapers. He carefully avoided patronizing EU's newer member-states -perhaps someone has finally advised him that this does little to boost his leadership in the EU; The full interview in PL is here: rp.pl/Unia-Europejsk… 2. In the interview, Macron has tried to calm down euro-outs' nervousness that they would be left out in the cold if French vision for the #eurozone reform went ahead. He reminded that eurozone is open for new members.

The discussion in the EU about how to address the problem of the rule of law in PL has mainly focused on deploying punitive measures. This inspired me to write a paper for @Carnegie_Europe within its #Europeandemocracy project which calls on a more comprehensive strategy. #Thread

https://twitter.com/CarnegieEndow/status/1049227672587571200

1.Don't get me wrong. The EU cannot turn a blind eye on democratic backsliding in its own members. EU treaties provide EC with legal instruments 2 address the problem&EC has been doing its job vis-à-vis. But it will fail to restore #ruleoflaw if it only sticks 2 punitive measures

Juncker delivered his last #SOTEU2018 speech. Here are my major takeaways in a tweet #thread @CER_EU 1. As media had previously reported #Juncker decided not to focus on what his Commission achieved but on what still needs to be done to convince European citizens to say 'Yes' to the EU when they go to the polls next year.