Hugh Lewis Profile picture
Jan 9, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I think it's vitally important to recognise that #satellites have helped us to understand the Earth and how humans have changed it. Satellites also help to feed us, to send aid where it is needed, and to give us an incredibly valuable understanding of global affairs...
...There are many other things that satellites help us with. So when people suggest that tackling #spacedebris is not as important as tackling #climatechange (or other human or environmental challenge), my reply is always that tackling space debris *IS* tackling climate change
The satellites are our eyes on the world, our senses. They provide us with an awareness of our planet on a global scale, from pole to pole, East to West. We simply cannot gain that awareness in any other way.
That awareness feeds into our Earth and Climate models, and many other different models, all of which help us to understand how humans are changing the oceans, the seas, the land, the atmosphere, and space.
Crucially, the satellites we depend upon for this awareness occupy a region of near-Earth space that is hugely congested. There is more artificial #spacedebris in this region than anywhere else in Earth orbit.
So, protecting those satellites from #spacedebris is a really important challenge and that's why I say that tackling space debris is the same as tackling climate change. We can't do one without the other.
It's also deeper than that: the problem of #spacedebris is very much like the problem of #climatechange, or the problem of #oceanplastics. There is a common issue that lies at the heart of all of these issues - and a common solution.

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More from @ProfHughLewis

May 15, 2023
Welcome to this month's look at #Starlink conjunction risk mitigation manoeuvres. Through 30 April 2023, I estimate that Starlink satellites have made a total of > 45,000 manoeuvres to mitigate the risk of colliding with other space objects [1/n] Graph showing the cumulativ...
A better relationship to consider is the one between the (cumulative) number of manoeuvres and the (cumulative) number of Starlink satellites launched. The growth is a non-linear function of the number of Starlink satellites [2/n] Graph showing the cumulativ...
Here, I looked at the manoeuvre estimates/reports in 6-monthly intervals, corresponding to the reporting periods used by SpaceX. Additionally, I added a prediction to the end of 2024 based on an exponential fit through 30 April 2023. [3/n] Graph showing the number of...
Read 6 tweets
Sep 15, 2022
I've been thinking about the new proposed @FCC "five-year rule" for #SpaceDebris mitigation & wanted to share some analysis & thoughts. Whilst I think the intentions are good I believe the implications of the change are poorly understood. Let me explain... [1/n]
As @brianweeden's excellent thread explains, "The new proposed ruling would require all FCC licensed satellites that end their life in LEO to re-enter the atmosphere within 5 years, and ideally ASAP." [2/n]
The justification provided by the @FCC is that "a shorter benchmark would promote a safer orbital debris environment." [3/n] Image
Read 31 tweets
Sep 14, 2022
Latest analysis for #Starlink & #OneWeb shows these two constellations accounted for 42% of all close approaches within 5 km predicted by #SOCRATES at the end of August, with Starlink alone accounting for 29%. [1/n]
On average, #SOCRATES predicts that each #Starlink satellite will now experience 1 close approach within 5 km with a non-Starlink object every day, and each #OneWeb satellite will experience 3.4 close approaches with a non-OneWeb object every day. These rates are increasing [2/n]
Here's the same data from [2/n] plotted with respect to the number of satellites in each constellation in orbit, clearly showing #SOCRATES predicts that #OneWeb satellites experience more close approaches (within 5 km) per satellite than the #Starlink satellites [3/n]
Read 13 tweets
Jul 5, 2022
A follow-on from yesterday's thread with a note about averages. In a #SOCRATES report from 30 June 2022 the average collision probability for each #Starlink conjunction was 3.7E-6 but the range of values can be broad (chart shows data since 2019) [1/n]
Chart showing frequency of conjunctions at different collisi
#SOCRATES predicted some events with a collision probability > 1E-2 (1-in-100) & some with a probability < 1E-7 (1-in-10,000,000). The average value might seem to be almost negligible & you might think all conjunctions would be similar, but that's not the case [2/n]
In addition, some #Starlink & #OneWeb satellites experience more conjunctions than others. Most satellites experience relatively few encounters but a few satellites are involved in a relatively large number (charts shows data for 7 days from 30 June 2022) [3/n] Chart showing the frequency that Starlink and OneWeb satelli
Read 8 tweets
Jul 4, 2022
Welcome to my (delayed) monthly analysis of @CelesTrak #SOCRATES conjunctions. Since 1 March 2019, SOCRATES has predicted about 9 million unique conjunctions within 5 km involving active or derelict payloads. This is a thread focused on those involving #OneWeb & #Starlink [1/n] Chart showing the average daily number of conjunctions withi
#OneWeb payloads have accounted for ~500,000 unique conjunction predictions since 1 March 2019 (5.5% of all predictions made), while #Starlink payloads have accounted for ~1.1 million (12.5%) [2/n]
On 1 March 2019 #SOCRATES predicted ~3860 unique conjunctions within 5 km. On 30 June 2022 the corresponding number was ~10,160, an increase of ~160%. #Starlink accounted for ~2570 (25%) & #OneWeb accounted for ~1250 (12%) [3/n]
Read 14 tweets
Apr 27, 2022
In advance of my monthly analysis of #Starlink conjunction data I wanted to share some additional analysis undertaken over the last few days. It's a work in progress but here's a thread looking a little deeper at the #SpaceX approach to #Starlink orbital space safety [1/n]
#SpaceX provided some relatively detailed information about its approach in a briefing to the #FCC (here: ecfsapi.fcc.gov/file/108107102…) and in an update on the website (here: spacex.com/updates/index.…) [2/n]
My focus has mostly been on understanding the implications relating to the choice of the probability threshold for collision avoidance manoeuvres. With the #SOCRATES #Starlink data now running across nearly 3 years we can gain some insights that may be useful [3/n]
Read 35 tweets

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