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Feb 6, 2020 • 8 tweets • 7 min read
Link for today's appearance on CNBC with @MartinSoong @cnbcSri :

The #coronavirus shows that Thailand is too dependent on Chinese tourists to propel growth & lack of domestic investment for diversified sources of income!

👇🏻🙈🙉

cnbc.com/video/2020/02/…
@MartinSoong @cnbcSri Those that think the virus is meh, really depends on what asset class u're looking at. Since 20 Jan 2020: For China, equities have been down (less down than Monday but still down by -6.55%); SPX net up 15bps;

FX: DXY up!!! CNY down almost 2%; bonds rallied
Commodities fall more
@MartinSoong @cnbcSri So u can see that iron ore declined -16.2%; Brent -14%; Crude -12%; Steel -8%;

Clearly commodities are being hit much harder than equities & FX.

OK, what does that tell u? It tells u DIVERGENCE in magnitude. For example, after CNY, railway passenger traffic fell -80-90%!!! 🥶
@MartinSoong @cnbcSri So basically, if u're a sector immediately related to transportation (oil, etc), meaning commodity like oil iron ore etc, u're not doing so well because railway passenger traffic basically went to a halt.

Property sales FELL too as people stay at home & fell -42% after LNY. Yep!
@MartinSoong @cnbcSri Next wk is important because people are supposed to return to work (factories etc) but if they are still quarantine then the statistics u saw above may drag on into the rest of Feb. So, commodity prices are pricing this in while equities less so b/c it hopes that this fades soon!
@MartinSoong @cnbcSri So Germany factory orders fell -8.7%YoY & -2.1%MoM (worse than expectations) in December and that is before Jan & Feb when the Chinese economy is essentially in lock-down.

RBI kept rates on hold (as expected) - talked on CNBC about this. BSP soon & will likely cut rates!

✂️✂️🕊️
@MartinSoong @cnbcSri USD is KING 👑🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️. So let's look at the EUR/USD & DXY (roughly 60% EUR) since the escalation of trade-war w/ the unilateral washing machine tariffs in late Jan 2018. EUR weakens vs USD 6.2% & guess wut? DXY rose 6.2%. What's interesting is PLN is doing better than EUR lately.
@MartinSoong @cnbcSri The BSP cut rates by 25bps to 3.75% as expected by everyone. It follows the BOT 25bps & the MAS dovish tone to weaken the SGD.

Asian economies need help. Indonesia is next to cut!

✂️🕊️🕊️🕊️🇵🇭🇹🇭🇸🇬🇮🇩

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
Feb 15
What???
I watched the Edge of War the other day & it's about Chamberlain appeasement to Hitler in Munich. He thought that appeasing Hitler's thirst to invade stops with giving him the Sudenteland from his ally Czechoslovakia would end in peace.

He gave a speech afterwards about peace.
Of course you know what happens next, Hitler ambition wasn't just the Sudenteland. He was so happy with Chamberlain's wishful approach to geopolitics and proceeded to attack its neighbors. It took the invasion of Poland for war to be declared by the UK on 3 September 1939.
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Feb 10
Good morning! Shall we discuss something a bit more structural, although this is a cyclical theme in 2022 across Asia, from China to India and Southeast Asia. Let's talk about #infrastructure , which is the theme of the hour & the next decade🛣️🌉🚆📶⚡️

@natixis @NatixisResearch
Today, infrastructure stocks are soaring in China as hope of government policy leaning towards this sector to shore up domestic demand in sagging growth momentum.

In India, infrastructure has been a big theme & even more so after the expanded budget that prioritizes it ⏫📈.
Why is infrastructure the theme of the hour and the next 2 decades? Simply put: infrastructure is essential for the improvement of the quality of life, production of goods, services and to raise productivity of labor.

Demand for infrastructure is high & will sky rocket.
Read 36 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Feb 7
Good morning! Hope you have a great Lunar New Year and happy Tet! I did even if it was uneventful. First year as a mom and giving out lots of li xi. Now, back to our regular programming of daily reminder of brent 92.8/barrel and markets completely priced out negative rates in EUR
Let me put this another way, Brent crude is +19.35% so far this year and other commodities like palm oil is up too.

I hope u listened when I said you should fear inflation more than Omicron. The Scandinavians have decided that pandemic is over.

Anyway, let's stay w/ inflation.
Let's look at global rates - what do you see? Or shall I say it differently, what don't you see?

NEGATIVE EUROPEAN RATES, esp BUND.

Ok, why? Inflation! I told you, central banks DO NOT PROMISE YOU A ROSE GARDEN. Christine changed her tune when CPI hit 5.1%.

So did JPO at 7%
Read 10 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jan 30
Highly recommend this story for everyone to read. First, it is beautifully written & honest, especially the part about the fear of not being chosen during HS for class assignments. Second, it gives us insight on the little things we need to do to enable mobility for the disabled.
As a mother, I wheel my baby around the city a lot. He can’t walk yet & too heavy to carry around. And when I stroll him around, I notice that Hong Kong is not wheel-chair/stroller friendly at all. Pavements don’t have a natural curve to enable u to go straight & so u can’t move
I actually haven’t seen any wheel chair around Hong Kong unless it is being pushed by someone & just on a few roads where this is possible.

Accessibility is limited & can’t tell u how excited I get when I see a ramp.

But my angst is a sliver of what disabled people face.
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jan 27
Good morning! Shall we talk about US Q4 GDP? It was gangbuster at 5.5% YoY (we use this to compare to Asian countries) or this is what Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Nominal GDP grew 11.7%YoY and so US nominal GDP expanded 10.2% in 2021.

Fed is still doing QE & rates are close to zero.👈
I compare the quarterly %YoY chart here of the US nominal, US real and China real GDP. Note that as China decelerates towards 4% in Q4, US GDP accelerated to 5.5%.

Last year, the US grew 5.7% in 2021 vs 2020 (which fell -3.4% vs 2019) so a lot of it is making up for lost time.
US nominal GDP was USD22.99trn or USD23trn (good number to remember so when people say this is X% of GDP). And so it added 2.1trn or 10% in 2021 to total 23trn by end of the year.

Now what does that say about 2022? If consensus is right, going to be about 25trn by end of this yr
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jan 27
This report by @business is just great! Congress ownership of tech makes tech regulations awkward! Guess who owns a ton of tech? @SpeakerPelosi

And will she regulate? So far, she's not keen to! She doesn't want to regulate tech. We wonder why...

>100 million dollars invested🤗
Asked by reporters whether she should regulate tech, she responded, "We are a free-market economy." And she hated the idea.

I wonder why? >100 million dollars at stake for her
Congressional trading persists!!! Yes, persists! This is a person that has been around in government since the 1980s and is seeking re-election at 81 years old whose family own >100 million dollars in tech.

Do we have a conflict of interest here? Do we? Hmm
Read 7 tweets

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