This virus 🦠 attacks people - & not just people’s health & livelihood but people’s willingness to move around & be global vs local.
This virus 🦠 attacks our globalised system & the cracks in them. Whether that is supply chain or demand or lack of trust in each other’s systems.
This virus 🦠 attacks our globalised system & the cracks in them. Whether that is supply chain or demand or lack of trust in each other’s systems.
https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1234408176088281088
Meaning, we have a globalised world where we depend on each other for manu goods & services & ultimately that means livelihood.
But in this super interdependent & complex economic system, we do not have trust in others’ governance & political systems (& increasingly our own).
But in this super interdependent & complex economic system, we do not have trust in others’ governance & political systems (& increasingly our own).
When trust breaks down, what people do is retreat to fight & flight mode (hoarding toilet paper, carbs - rice & pasta, sanitizer, and freak out over the news & avoid risks).
Globalised economic system grinds to a halt - beginning with airlines & tourism but will not stop there.
Globalised economic system grinds to a halt - beginning with airlines & tourism but will not stop there.
An article on South Korea (linked to China & Vietnam supply chain) & why this virus 🦠 wreaking havoc on the world, starting w/ China but will not end there.
It attacks our economic system - globalisation - through people.
More global = more problem👈🏻!
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
It attacks our economic system - globalisation - through people.
More global = more problem👈🏻!
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
If u listen to the narratives being spun - in China it is about blaming local governments (Wuhan) while central gov good & now increasingly changing the narrative of origin of the virus 🦠 to not be China & trying to shift to the US. The blame game = lack of trust & cooperation
We have a globalised complex interdependent (and for manufacturing China centric) economic system that is contingent on lack of trust & cooperation.
The system has huge cracks & the virus 🦠 basically exposes it.
What happens after? More cooperation/less? More trust/less trust?
The system has huge cracks & the virus 🦠 basically exposes it.
What happens after? More cooperation/less? More trust/less trust?
Don’t think this blame game is just one gov blaming another - the mishandling of this will have political consequences in places where it is severely affected.
People don’t forgive incompetence when it comes to their lives & their loved ones. Economic & political consequences 👈🏻
People don’t forgive incompetence when it comes to their lives & their loved ones. Economic & political consequences 👈🏻
For those believing in pent up demand once this is over: You can’t make up for service income losses.
Can’t eat more than 3 meals a day, do more non-essential biz trips in Q2 to make up for Q1, etc.
And the gloom of Q1 will linger into Q2 so normalisation gradual & not rapid👈🏻.
Can’t eat more than 3 meals a day, do more non-essential biz trips in Q2 to make up for Q1, etc.
And the gloom of Q1 will linger into Q2 so normalisation gradual & not rapid👈🏻.
Word of the quarter: INFECTED 🦠😬
Today is 3 March 2020 & this is the asset performance ytd 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Brent below 50 & -25% (gas worse) - commodities not happy w/ the world doing social distancing.
Equities dropping by less but following commodities;
UST 5yr FELL -109bp to 60bps
Today is 3 March 2020 & this is the asset performance ytd 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
Brent below 50 & -25% (gas worse) - commodities not happy w/ the world doing social distancing.
Equities dropping by less but following commodities;
UST 5yr FELL -109bp to 60bps
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