I was just talking to @AdamJKucharski and he said something that tracks with what other public health experts have told me:
"At the moment it seems the only way to sustainably reduce transmission are really severe, unsustainable measures. "
"At the moment it seems the only way to sustainably reduce transmission are really severe, unsustainable measures. "
Social distancing works. Quarantines work. But how long can you hold them? And what happens when you begin to let up the pressure?
If you can keep initial cases down, like South Korea and Taiwan did, it's easier. But we didn't. Nor did Europe.
If you can keep initial cases down, like South Korea and Taiwan did, it's easier. But we didn't. Nor did Europe.
China has solved this, for now, through authoritarian lockdown. But everyone I talk to wonders what will happen to cases there when they begin to let people move around again, which they eventually have to do.
But here, we're not doing nearly enough to stop transmission, which means even once we do move into more draconian measures, it's going to be hard to contain. And in a freer society, how long can those measures be sustained? Will people really distance for months?
There's a lot of talk of #FlatteningTheCurve, including by me. That makes it sound like the curve is singular.
We could see a number of curves, as societies lock down, cutting transmission, and then loosen up, and the virus comes back.
We could see a number of curves, as societies lock down, cutting transmission, and then loosen up, and the virus comes back.
Anyway, happy Monday.
