Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #flatteningthecurve

Most recents (24)

Case Study: Dharavi, Mumbai
(1/2) Asia's largest slum is #flatteningthecurve. Doubling in 44 days. 51% recovery, 4% mortality. No death in last 6 days. <20 cases/d. Thread
#Mumbai #MumbaiFightsCovid19
2/2: 'Mission Dharavi' by @mybmc was implemented across the slum. Strong #publichealth measures - Screening by fever camps, private clinic were effective tool to screen 3.6 lakh people out of 8 lakhs. Same strategy could have been applied to entire #Mumbai to reduce no. of cases.
BMC rolled out massive dosages of #Hydroxychloroquine across the slum as prophylaxis to prevent the infection. This might also contributed in early halt of #COVID19 in Dharavi. @MsAnaMcCarthy take a look at this thread. Success story from Asia's largest slum in Mumbai.
Read 9 tweets
THREAD: Decoding #AndhraPradesh success MODEL in crushing #Covid_19.
1️⃣TESTING: @ysjagan adopted MASSIVE POOLED TESTING strategy to stop ‘super-spreader’ phenomenon by 100% early detection (in an hour) of all positive cases using TrueNAT.
AP reported limited testing basis unavailability of TrueNAT cartridges on April 16. W/in a week, home based company MedTech Zone started manufacturing ~2000 such cartridges/d to ramp up testing. On 24 April #AndhraPradesh - 950 t/mil in comparison to national avg. 125 t/mil. 👏
As on 1st May #AndhraPradesh was conducting 9000 tests/day, bringing out all positive cases. On the same date, @IndiaSpend reported the state’s progress towards #flatteningthecurve. Rest is history.😌 Image
Read 13 tweets
Rupiah makin menguat.. #NewNormalPulihkanEkonomi mulai terasa, ihsg menguat, target test per hari makin tinggi dari pak @jokowi. APD semakin mudah didapat, ventilator, rapid test kit dan pcr kit juga vaksin on progress #banggabuatanindonesia. Optimis #INDONESIABISA ImageImageImage
Memang ada bahaya laten peningkatan pasca lebaran. Optimis kalau kita #disiplinprotokolnewnormal dan saling mengingatkan org sekitar kita, tidak ada yang harus dikorbankan antara ekonomi dan kesehatan. Edukasi org terdekat n tetangga tntg #Covid_19 @blogdokter @drsyuk_InfoKes
#indonesia yang merupakan negara kepulauan yang bila #PSBB memang sudah efektif dan #flatteningthecurve sdh tercapai hrsny lbh diuntungkan karena isolasi per daerah nya menjadi lebih mudah. Penduduk yg byk bs jadi target produksi n konsumsi sendiri utk #NewNormalPulihkanEkonomi Image
Read 5 tweets
Sadly, we’ve progressed from “testing would be nice” to “nasty tests sometimes are negative and then positive so they’re not great.” It’s now clear we have to ease the harshest restrictions as carefully as possible, but in the absence of widespread testing and contact tracing.
I wish that weren’t the case. I wish we’d used the harsh measures imposed in March to rapidly ramp up public health infrastructure and testing capacity so the sacrifices made would result in a lasting reduction in deaths.
Each day we keep the harshest possible restrictions in place this spring/summer will make it harder to re-impose some or all of them when they may be most needed in fall/winter.
Read 8 tweets
Thread on my #CovidDataProject: #ReOpenAmerica edition.

For those not familiar with my work, the original (and still primary) aim of my model was to answer the question, “Where would we be on #COVID19 deaths had @realDonaldTrump acted quickly and responsibly?” The answer is

is shocking. As of midnight UTC last night, we stood at 72,271 deaths, and my model shows 90.905%, 65,698 American souls, would still be alive had he acted quickly. In other words, this would have been another tragic but relatively small blip on the epidemic radar, similar in
scale to the #SwineFlu under @BarackObama. And that’s without taking into account the added deaths globally, those caused by America’s failure to act.

Another, secondary goal has been predictive, looking at trends to make an educated guess about where we’re headed. That’s

Read 18 tweets
#COVID__19 #FlatteningtheCurve Isolation is a key strategy to limiting transmission. It's important we remember that the virus is in the throat & noses of people positive for the infection and this is the major source of transmission. @Fmohnigeria @FMICNigeria @FMEnvng @NCDCgov
#COVID__19 people understanding this is critical. Isolation is not just for the sick, it is for anyone positive even if having no/very mild symptoms. Bcos as long as one is positive, even while talking, the person sheds the virus & exposes others @nighealthwatch @DailyPostNGR
#COVID__19 This is also the reason why physical/spatial distancing is critical. You don't know the status of the other person. S/He may be shedding the virus, so gatherings are discouraged, was why everyone was requested to #StayHomeStaySafe @NigeriainfoFM
Read 7 tweets
Epidemic model for Sweden #FlatteningtheCurve, estimated from incidence of cases and deaths, assuming social-distancing measures introduced between March 9 and 20 (matching Google Mobility Report data). #Covid19Sverige #Covid19Sweden 1/7 ImageImage
The model estimates that because of the measures, Rt dropped from an initial 3.5 (2.4 - 6.5) to 1.34 (1.18 - 1.67). But the effective reproduction number (Re) is dropping further below 1, providing an explanation why their daily cases are hitting a maximum. 2/7 Image
Provided that there is no change in social distancing behaviour, then this would be the projected death estimate. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Number of positive cases per day April 1 - 18, 2020
#FlatteningtheCurve ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
BREAKING: 752 lives lost in NY state yesterday linked to #COVID19

Hospitals: 707
Nursing Homes: 45

#nbc4ny Image
Governor Cuomo says the CDC is changing how deaths are recorded to include confirmed and probable deaths linked to #Covid19
NY state deaths linked to #COVID19 now at 11,586 ... this does not include the 3,700 probable deaths added to #NYC total
Read 4 tweets
The Paradox of Elected Representation in Times of #COVID19

- This is a thread (1/11)
What does the future hold for all Malaysians post #MCO? What if this new “NORM” is extended beyond 12-18 months pending release of #COVID19 vaccine? Will there be more unity and solidarity among MPs to support Supplementary Budgets and New Legislations initiatives? (2/11)
#COVID19 is crippling Global politics, economy & social structures leading to government mandated lockdowns & #MCOs. These decisions, in addition to compulsory quarantine & travel bans can be challenged as unconstitutional, which seems unimportant in the face of #COVID19. (3/11)
Read 11 tweets
#Lockdown is critical for slowing the spread of #COVID19, and India has displayed firm resolve in enforcing it.

Massive labour churn; CMIE Data indicates that 120 million people have lost their jobs. We will need strong Govt action to revive the Economy.…
We're already in a Global #Recession, the kind of which hasn't been seen in a century. It could get a lot worse, and we need to be prepared. #ViciousCycle 🔁 : Businesses shuttered, Labour furloughed, Expenditure cut and Demand destroyed. @MD_Nalapat…
The #lockdown and media-fuelled fear have completely brought the economy to a grinding halt. At some stage, #starvation may overtake #COVID19 as the leading cause of death. States like Punjab are finding innovative ways to balance health & economics.…
Read 186 tweets
Despite COVID-19 deaths topping 10,000 in the U.S and case numbers surpassing 350K+, 79% of Fox “News” consumers who responded to a Pew Research survey believe the media “slightly or greatly exaggerated” the risk of the pandemic. | via @VanityFair 🦊😷… ImageImageImage
How Trump and his gang of intransigent @GOP Governors are fundamentally incapable of managing #COVID19 altruistically b/c their profit motives & false pride take top priority, but Democrats are turning the tide with science & empathy | via @RickSmithShow…
“Two Texas prison units are on a complete lockdown after most of their inmate population was placed in medical restriction for possible exposure to COVID-19...”
| via @HoustonChron 😬😷… ImageImageImageImage
Read 51 tweets
SEIR model voor Belgische #flatteningthecurve , met IFR van 0.2% (op basis van University of Oxford estimate (0.1% à 0.26%…), en +/- fit op Belgische data van dodental en hospitalisaties.

1/5 Image
Vooreerst: het is slechts een model en de transmissie dynamica van dit virus is nog zeer onzeker.

Dit model gebruikt transmissie parameters uit recente publicaties, maar een gote onbekende is Rt (R0 na Belgische lockdown-lite).

Hoe moet je dit model lezen? Dag 40 in model komt overeen met 13 a 14 maart (weekend van lockdown); vandaag zijn we dan ongeveer dag 58.

Enkele voorspellingen.

Read 6 tweets
This is incredibly disturbing.

Non peer reviewed study used to argue against social distancing and an early end to lockdown produced by company linked to the nudge unit which first suggested the herd immunity strategy.

Now being held up by RW commentators in UK and US
The media jumped on the "Oxford University' report, using the university's name to add a veneer of respectability that the public would trust.
Yet Oxford University had nothing to do with that report, it came out of a PR company.
When government says its following the science its worth noting that all the herd immunity as strategy came from the behavioral psychologists not the medical scientists.

There have been reports of differences of opinion at the centre of government.

3 weeks ago I had my worries
Read 15 tweets
1/9 If anyone thinks that mass lockdowns in the US will hold, they have no idea what’s heading their way: Compete outrage on Social Media; pockets of unrest (riots) and a spike of suicides by people who lost their jobs/freedom. At that point, officials will say “ok ok. Go out but
2/ wear gloves and masks; wash your hands more and try avoiding large groups.” How long it will take until the ease up, I don’t know but South Korea did not do anything close to the rapid lockdowns that we are seeing now across the globe. Too many officials are mimicking
3/ each other without thinking what will work best for their country/state/city. I have been tweeting for weeks that Italy melted when they had only 1,000 cases so the lesson should be to first up the hospital/healthcare capacity! But most of the focus is on lockdowns.
Read 12 tweets
My last #COVID19 tweet rant was a few weeks ago. A lot of work has been done but we are still falling short & dealing w/ new issues on a daily basis. Time to prepare is running out. Critical issues at present are: 1) Testing Capacity; 2) PPE; 3) Case definition; 4) LTC 1/
1) Testing Capacity - ideally we would be testing everyone with symptoms to get an accurate picture of just how widespread #COVID19 is now. Unfortunately with limited testing because of swab & reagent shortages/lab capacity this is not possible. 2/
On an individual level telling someone they definitely have COVID19 vs they may have it likely modifies behaviour. Hopefully everyone w/ symptoms stays home but confirming infection may improve isolation *especially* in those w/ mild symptoms. 3/
Read 17 tweets

I just published with @mbendernyc:

Lots in here....

1. NEW: Hospital administrators in at least three states telling staff not to take precautions to prevent exposure to of #COVIDー19 (gloves, masks) due to #PPEshortage

2. Trump administration itself KNEW long in advance there'd be #PPEshortage.

Read the #CrimsonContagion report of 2019👇
Read the National Biodefense Strategy of 2018👇

BOTH highlighted need to surge PPE capacity in event of pandemic. Trump team didn't follow through. ImageImage
3. We quote interviews with top pandemic control experts @juliettekayyem @JeremyKonyndyk (on @deepstateradio podcast with @djrothkopf and me).

Kayyem and Konyndyk also explain how administration should have known of medical shortages well ahead of time.…
Read 6 tweets
I promised to explain what physicists or quantitative scientists could do to help in the #Covid_19 pandemic. After a week of 18 hour days, some time to explain.

Bottom line: in a country where there is limited testing, you can only see COVID-19 with #mathematics.

Please RT.
Sergei Maslov & I have been using simulations of the SEIR model of epidemics, customized for #COVID-19, to make predictions for local and Chicago hospitals, university and State administrators. Even though there are inevitable uncertainties you can still get important insights.
Last night, IL Gov. J.B. Pritzker ordered a State shelter-in-place. He said it was made after talking to health care experts, mathematicians & looking at the modeling for what will happen without taking this drastic action.…
Read 13 tweets
via @NYTimes 1/ We acted too late as a nation to mitigate this. We needed #SocialDistanacing a week or two earlier. I don’t know if that would’ve been enough. The true surge is yet to come and it’s only going to exponentially get worse #COVID19…
2/ I think exercise is still important during #SocialDistanacing we all need to do that. And I believe running is a safe and healthy way to do that as it can be done solitary and far enough away from anyone else. But what I saw tonight was disturbing
3/ I’ve been running after sunset to avoid peak crowds. Yet with the good weather, the spring arriving, and a gradual slow down, but not yet a shutdown, the streets and parks are incredibly crowded.
Read 16 tweets
I've been mulling over the @MRC_Outbreak modeling report on #COVID19 mitigation and suppression strategies since it was posted on March 16. Although mitigation through social distancing may not solve things I believe we can bring this epidemic under control. 1/19
But first, the report. @neil_ferguson, @azraghani and colleagues model COVID-19 epidemic outcomes under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical, aka social distancing, interventions. 2/19
Different mitigation scenarios that include things like school closures, isolation of symptomatic individuals and quarantine of exposed household members, result in #flatteningthecurve and reducing mortality, but under the author's assumptions still result in an epidemic. 3/19
Read 19 tweets
Ik moest bij alle berichten over thuis werken hieraan denken. Wij organiseren wel een kerst ontbijt met klassen. Opdracht is altijd: maak niet te veel, maar maak allemaal iets. Vervolgens staat er op de dag van het ontbijt voldoende om drie weken van te eten. /1
Datzelfde gebeurt nu ook op scholen met het thuiswerk. Docenten krijgen de opdracht werk klaar te zetten, met waarschijnlijk (althans dat hoop ik) de opdracht kinderen niet te overladen. Zonder daar goede regie op te voeren vanuit schoolleiding /2
… ontstaat dus dat “ontbijt voor een weeshuis”.
Daarom hebben wij duidelijke afspraken gemaakt: excel document voor meerdaagse planning voor alle docenten inzichtelijk. Twee contactmomenten per dag, max voor vijf vakken stof en die stof wordt per dag /3
Read 8 tweets
Hoogleraar evolutionaire biologie Carl Bergstrom, de man achter #FlatteningTheCurve, toont zich straks in @Nieuwsuur bezorgd over groepsimmuniteit: “De Nederlandse strategie is riskant. De helft van de bevolking zal besmet raken. Dat zal veel levens kosten.” #coronavirus Image
Carl Bergstrom heeft de toespraak van premier Rutte gezien en zei ons ook nog dat streven naar groepsimmuniteit eerder een soort noodplan moet zijn: "Het is niet je plan A, B of C. Het is plan D. Het gaat levens kosten die gespaard konden blijven."
Read 3 tweets
USA has a population of around 327 million with only 160,000 ventilators available.
We have much less.
Countries like Italy are struggling with case numbers surging, severity of disease and death as the outcome.
The ceiling of care is lowered as more and more people get sick.
Ceiling of care is a term used to describe the highest level of care a patient will receive.
Doctors are having to decide which patients have the BEST shot at a favourable outcome rather than death.
What this means is that resources are allocated to those who have the best shot.
Those who suffer from this will be the immunocompromised (diabetic, hx of cancer, those who have autoimmune disease, taking steroid medication those with HIV and those at extremes of age (babies and elderly).
This means that their chance of receiving active treatment is low.
Read 11 tweets
Much of my work and the work of my organization, the Ministry Against the Death Penalty, is built around personal interactions with large groups of people. This cannot continue amid the precautions and restrictions related to #COVID19, at least for the immediate future. THREAD:
During this public health crisis, we are exploring creative solutions that allow us to continue our work, while doing our part to keep people healthy and safe.
Our staff is meeting virtually later this week to discuss strategies and technologies that will help me stay connected with schools, colleges, and the general public during this difficult and stressful time.
Read 6 tweets

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