Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #flatteningthecurve

Most recents (24)

Francis Collins, outgoing director of the NIH, stated recently that we need to be prepared to see 1 MILLION new cases per day with Omicron.

For context, the prior all-time high for rolling average daily cases was 251,232 in January 2021.

A thread 🧵/

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
With the rapid spread and high transmissibility of Omicron, we are seeing comparisons made to measles, the most highly contagious human-to-human transmitted infection - an airborne respiratory virus - we need to acknowledge that #COVIDisAirborne and we need better masks. #N95sNow
To understand the comparison, Omicron has early estimates of an R0 consistently around 6-8, meaning one person will potentially infect 6 to 8 people and that then leads to rapid exponential spread. Measles is the most infectious virus with an R0 of 12-18.
Read 29 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
1) Total cases continue to rise; the growth rate of active cases = 2.3% - so doubling in 30 days.
2) Why is doubling time important? Because despite #flatteningthecurve considerably , India is yet to peak (when growth of active cases = 0).
How are active cases growing?
1) Total cases doubling in 21 days.
2) Active cases doubling in 30 days.
3) Recovered cases doubling in 17 days.
4) Deaths doubling in 29 days.
Read 6 tweets
Case Study: Dharavi, Mumbai
(1/2) Asia's largest slum is #flatteningthecurve. Doubling in 44 days. 51% recovery, 4% mortality. No death in last 6 days. <20 cases/d. Thread
#Mumbai #MumbaiFightsCovid19
2/2: 'Mission Dharavi' by @mybmc was implemented across the slum. Strong #publichealth measures - Screening by fever camps, private clinic were effective tool to screen 3.6 lakh people out of 8 lakhs. Same strategy could have been applied to entire #Mumbai to reduce no. of cases.
BMC rolled out massive dosages of #Hydroxychloroquine across the slum as prophylaxis to prevent the infection. This might also contributed in early halt of #COVID19 in Dharavi. @MsAnaMcCarthy take a look at this thread. Success story from Asia's largest slum in Mumbai.
Read 9 tweets
THREAD: Decoding #AndhraPradesh success MODEL in crushing #Covid_19.
1️⃣TESTING: @ysjagan adopted MASSIVE POOLED TESTING strategy to stop ‘super-spreader’ phenomenon by 100% early detection (in an hour) of all positive cases using TrueNAT.
tinyurl.com/y7det8af
AP reported limited testing basis unavailability of TrueNAT cartridges on April 16. W/in a week, home based company MedTech Zone started manufacturing ~2000 such cartridges/d to ramp up testing. On 24 April #AndhraPradesh - 950 t/mil in comparison to national avg. 125 t/mil. 👏
As on 1st May #AndhraPradesh was conducting 9000 tests/day, bringing out all positive cases. On the same date, @IndiaSpend reported the state’s progress towards #flatteningthecurve. Rest is history.😌
tinyurl.com/y7f3gbdv Image
Read 13 tweets
Rupiah makin menguat.. #NewNormalPulihkanEkonomi mulai terasa, ihsg menguat, target test per hari makin tinggi dari pak @jokowi. APD semakin mudah didapat, ventilator, rapid test kit dan pcr kit juga vaksin on progress #banggabuatanindonesia. Optimis #INDONESIABISA ImageImageImage
Memang ada bahaya laten peningkatan pasca lebaran. Optimis kalau kita #disiplinprotokolnewnormal dan saling mengingatkan org sekitar kita, tidak ada yang harus dikorbankan antara ekonomi dan kesehatan. Edukasi org terdekat n tetangga tntg #Covid_19 @blogdokter @drsyuk_InfoKes
#indonesia yang merupakan negara kepulauan yang bila #PSBB memang sudah efektif dan #flatteningthecurve sdh tercapai hrsny lbh diuntungkan karena isolasi per daerah nya menjadi lebih mudah. Penduduk yg byk bs jadi target produksi n konsumsi sendiri utk #NewNormalPulihkanEkonomi Image
Read 5 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases cross 150K, the growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 4.3% - so doubling every 16 days. Finally a slowdown in infection after a week of rising growth. 🤞
How are TOTAL and ACTIVE cases changing?
Look at the right panel - to observe the decline in growth rate of active cases, after 7 days of rising speed.
7 Day moving average:
1) Daily cases
2) Daily deaths
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
(1) Total confirmed cases continue to rise. ACTIVE cases growing at 4.2% - so doubling in 17 days. Active cases have to stop rising for us to #FlattenTheCurve.
(2) How are TOTAL cases and ACTIVE cases growing?
(a) Total cases doubling in 13 days.
(b) Active cases doubling in 17 days. It was down to 23 days on 16th May.
(3) 7 Day moving averages:
(a) Daily cases
(b) Daily deaths
Read 13 tweets
#DailyUpdate #Covid19India
Total cases increase, as ACTIVE cases grow at 4.2% - so doubling in 17 days. We are witnessing a significant reversal in trend.
1) Total cases are doubling in 13 days.
2) Active cases are doubling in 17 days.
7Day moving average:
1) Daily new cases
2) Daily deaths
Read 13 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
As total cases mount, the growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 3.6% - so doubling in 19 days. We are struggling to #FlattenTheCurve - need better isolation, tracing and testing strategies at local district levels across the country.
This is where the trouble lies: we are clocking ~5000 new cases over last several days. 5 Day moving average of new cases:
1)MH accounts for ~2000
2)TN (~700)
3)DL (~500)
4)RJ, GJ, UP (~300)
5) Several states reporting their highest number of new cases now: DL, RJ, UP, KA, AS
How are ACTIVE cases growing across states?
1) Rising speed: KA, MH, RJ, MP, JK, WB, GJ, UP, TS (these states need better isolation+tracing+testing)
2) Slowing down: KL, OD, TN, PB...
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases are 90,648 and the rate of growth of ACTIVE cases = 3.1% - so doubling in 23 days. This implies that the recoveries are growing fast. Press on India!
Total COVID cases, total COVID-related deaths and the growth rate of total cases - according to different data sources. All show growth rate of 4.9% - so doubling in 14 days. @WHO @ECDC_EU @JHUSystems
The CGDR of total cases = 11.26%
Read 16 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases are 78,055 and growing. ACTIVE cases are growing at 4.2% - so doubling in 17 days. This is the slowest growth in active cases India has achieved (but base is large too). Press on!
Total COVID cases and growth of total cases in India - according to different data sources. @WHO @JHUSystems @ECDC_Outbreaks
7Day Moving average of:
1) Daily cases
2) Daily deaths
Read 15 tweets
Sadly, we’ve progressed from “testing would be nice” to “nasty tests sometimes are negative and then positive so they’re not great.” It’s now clear we have to ease the harshest restrictions as carefully as possible, but in the absence of widespread testing and contact tracing.
I wish that weren’t the case. I wish we’d used the harsh measures imposed in March to rapidly ramp up public health infrastructure and testing capacity so the sacrifices made would result in a lasting reduction in deaths.
Each day we keep the harshest possible restrictions in place this spring/summer will make it harder to re-impose some or all of them when they may be most needed in fall/winter.
Read 8 tweets
Thread on my #CovidDataProject: #ReOpenAmerica edition.

For those not familiar with my work, the original (and still primary) aim of my model was to answer the question, “Where would we be on #COVID19 deaths had @realDonaldTrump acted quickly and responsibly?” The answer is

1/x
is shocking. As of midnight UTC last night, we stood at 72,271 deaths, and my model shows 90.905%, 65,698 American souls, would still be alive had he acted quickly. In other words, this would have been another tragic but relatively small blip on the epidemic radar, similar in
scale to the #SwineFlu under @BarackObama. And that’s without taking into account the added deaths globally, those caused by America’s failure to act.

Another, secondary goal has been predictive, looking at trends to make an educated guess about where we’re headed. That’s

3/x
Read 18 tweets
#COVID__19 #FlatteningtheCurve Isolation is a key strategy to limiting transmission. It's important we remember that the virus is in the throat & noses of people positive for the infection and this is the major source of transmission. @Fmohnigeria @FMICNigeria @FMEnvng @NCDCgov
#COVID__19 people understanding this is critical. Isolation is not just for the sick, it is for anyone positive even if having no/very mild symptoms. Bcos as long as one is positive, even while talking, the person sheds the virus & exposes others @nighealthwatch @DailyPostNGR
#COVID__19 This is also the reason why physical/spatial distancing is critical. You don't know the status of the other person. S/He may be shedding the virus, so gatherings are discouraged, was why everyone was requested to #StayHomeStaySafe @NigeriainfoFM
Read 7 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total confirmed cases growing, Active cases growing at 4.8% - so doubling every 15 days.
Total confirmed cases growing at the doubling rate of 12 days - consistent across different data sources.
7Day moving average of Daily confirmed cases and Daily deaths in India.
Read 12 tweets
Epidemic model for Sweden #FlatteningtheCurve, estimated from incidence of cases and deaths, assuming social-distancing measures introduced between March 9 and 20 (matching Google Mobility Report data). #Covid19Sverige #Covid19Sweden 1/7 ImageImage
The model estimates that because of the measures, Rt dropped from an initial 3.5 (2.4 - 6.5) to 1.34 (1.18 - 1.67). But the effective reproduction number (Re) is dropping further below 1, providing an explanation why their daily cases are hitting a maximum. 2/7 Image
Provided that there is no change in social distancing behaviour, then this would be the projected death estimate. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
#DailyUpdate #StateHealth #Covid19India
Total cases=Active+Recovered+Deaths
1) Alarming: MH, GJ
2) Rising active cases: MP, UP, AP, WB, BR
3) Good recovery: KL, HR, TN
4) Improving: KA, TS, PB
5) Second wave: DL, RJ
5Day Moving average of New Confirmed cases: this MUST be brought under control by local administrations. And the ONLY formula available —

Recovery formula = Containment + Contact Tracing + Testing
Total COVID cases in India: Projected Vs Actuals
1) Even at the current rate, we will have 1,12,149 by May 17th.
2) SO, we need to continue #FlatteningtheCurve
3) Containment! Contact tracing! Testing!
Read 4 tweets
#DailyUpdate #Covid19India
As total Confirmed cases grow in India, Active cases are growing at 6.8% - so doubling every 10 days.
The Compound Daily Growth Rate is 12.84% ...and falling. Good.
1) 5Day Moving Median of New Confirmed cases.
2) 5Day Moving Median of Daily COVID deaths.
3) #NewGraph Long term trend - 7Day Moving Average: the trend and deviations.
Read 10 tweets
Number of positive cases per day April 1 - 18, 2020
#FlatteningtheCurve ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
BREAKING: 752 lives lost in NY state yesterday linked to #COVID19

Hospitals: 707
Nursing Homes: 45

#nbc4ny Image
Governor Cuomo says the CDC is changing how deaths are recorded to include confirmed and probable deaths linked to #Covid19
NY state deaths linked to #COVID19 now at 11,586 ... this does not include the 3,700 probable deaths added to #NYC total
Read 4 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID2019
India is flattening the curve. The growth rate has shown a consistent decline - from April 6th onwards - approximately 2 weeks after the #Lockdown . Active cases are doubling every 7 days.
The 5Day Moving Median for new confirmed cases has been stable. Good!
The compound daily growth rate marginally declining in last few days.... this needs to fall significantly!
Read 10 tweets
The Paradox of Elected Representation in Times of #COVID19

- This is a thread (1/11)
What does the future hold for all Malaysians post #MCO? What if this new “NORM” is extended beyond 12-18 months pending release of #COVID19 vaccine? Will there be more unity and solidarity among MPs to support Supplementary Budgets and New Legislations initiatives? (2/11)
#COVID19 is crippling Global politics, economy & social structures leading to government mandated lockdowns & #MCOs. These decisions, in addition to compulsory quarantine & travel bans can be challenged as unconstitutional, which seems unimportant in the face of #COVID19. (3/11)
Read 11 tweets
Update on #COVID19 situation in Australia. Overall good ! Detected cases 6,019 (+96), Recovered cases 2085 (+322), death 50 (+2). 2x more recovery than detected cases. Doubling time 13 days ! Follows Korea #flatteningthecurve due to #border closure #SocialDistancing & lots tests ImageImageImageImage
At State level, all #flatteningthecurve. Looking at NSW + VIC overseas travelers detected cases steady. Interestingly community still steadily increases (~12.9% cases today) -> slow growth rate (0.1%/day). National level 560 community acquired cases 9.6% total (growth 0.2%/day) ImageImageImage
Testing rate. Today over 318,000 tests performed in Australia with hit rate at 1.8%. Interestingly we are first days of relaxations of testing criteria and no surges in cases. In fact I see hit rate decreasing (0.1% today) ! Very good early signs ! Hopefully this will continue. Image
Read 5 tweets
#Lockdown is critical for slowing the spread of #COVID19, and India has displayed firm resolve in enforcing it.

Massive labour churn; CMIE Data indicates that 120 million people have lost their jobs. We will need strong Govt action to revive the Economy.
theprint.in/opinion/india-…
We're already in a Global #Recession, the kind of which hasn't been seen in a century. It could get a lot worse, and we need to be prepared. #ViciousCycle 🔁 : Businesses shuttered, Labour furloughed, Expenditure cut and Demand destroyed. @MD_Nalapat
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/what…
The #lockdown and media-fuelled fear have completely brought the economy to a grinding halt. At some stage, #starvation may overtake #COVID19 as the leading cause of death. States like Punjab are finding innovative ways to balance health & economics.
theprint.in/india/this-is-…
Read 186 tweets

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