Guys!!!! Good morning!!! Go buy the print version of the @FT today ๐ค๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ! Somebody u know is in it ๐๐ปโโ๏ธ๐๐ปโโ๏ธ๐๐ปโโ๏ธ๐๐ค๐๐ง ๐ฐ ๐ ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป
And leaders are starting to drop the F bomb - FISCAL ๐๐ป:
New Zealand announces virus package worth 4% of GDP ๐ณ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ.
During GFC, China spent 9.7% of GDP and so the equivalent of that today would have to be USD1.4trn.
Yep, the F bomb is going to be dropped everywhere, starting w/ New Zealand (other economies did tiny lil ones, as terms of share of GDP)๐ณ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
The Philippines not only closes its stock market but also now suspends FX trading from today.
That's one way to deal w/ the liquidity issue ๐ฌ๐๐ป.
Got dollars??? The fed may have supplied markets w/ cheap USD & also extended swap lines to developed markets but emerging markets need more access to the dollar!!!
"The supply of liquidity by CBs is beneficial only to those who can access it," said @Trinhnomics in the @FT ๐๐ป๐ฌ
Credit squeeze is getting to the IDR (Indonesian rupiah) as it got plenty of dollar debt & funds itself via portfolio investment. This is an opportunity for Jokowi to implement deep reforms!!! It needs stick flows. No way to fund a national development strategy w/ volatile flows!
The great rebalancing - Australians living more within their means. As the AUD weakens (most in Asia & will squeeze imports & help exports), the current account is turning from a negative to positive one.
So FX is a great absorber, well, unless u committed the original sin ๐ฌ๐ฌ
โข โข โข
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I watched the Edge of War the other day & it's about Chamberlain appeasement to Hitler in Munich. He thought that appeasing Hitler's thirst to invade stops with giving him the Sudenteland from his ally Czechoslovakia would end in peace.
He gave a speech afterwards about peace.
Of course you know what happens next, Hitler ambition wasn't just the Sudenteland. He was so happy with Chamberlain's wishful approach to geopolitics and proceeded to attack its neighbors. It took the invasion of Poland for war to be declared by the UK on 3 September 1939.
Good morning! Shall we discuss something a bit more structural, although this is a cyclical theme in 2022 across Asia, from China to India and Southeast Asia. Let's talk about #infrastructure , which is the theme of the hour & the next decade๐ฃ๏ธ๐๐๐ถโก๏ธ
Today, infrastructure stocks are soaring in China as hope of government policy leaning towards this sector to shore up domestic demand in sagging growth momentum.
In India, infrastructure has been a big theme & even more so after the expanded budget that prioritizes it โซ๐.
Why is infrastructure the theme of the hour and the next 2 decades? Simply put: infrastructure is essential for the improvement of the quality of life, production of goods, services and to raise productivity of labor.
Demand for infrastructure is high & will sky rocket.
Good morning! Hope you have a great Lunar New Year and happy Tet! I did even if it was uneventful. First year as a mom and giving out lots of li xi. Now, back to our regular programming of daily reminder of brent 92.8/barrel and markets completely priced out negative rates in EUR
Let me put this another way, Brent crude is +19.35% so far this year and other commodities like palm oil is up too.
I hope u listened when I said you should fear inflation more than Omicron. The Scandinavians have decided that pandemic is over.
Anyway, let's stay w/ inflation.
Let's look at global rates - what do you see? Or shall I say it differently, what don't you see?
NEGATIVE EUROPEAN RATES, esp BUND.
Ok, why? Inflation! I told you, central banks DO NOT PROMISE YOU A ROSE GARDEN. Christine changed her tune when CPI hit 5.1%.
Highly recommend this story for everyone to read. First, it is beautifully written & honest, especially the part about the fear of not being chosen during HS for class assignments. Second, it gives us insight on the little things we need to do to enable mobility for the disabled.
As a mother, I wheel my baby around the city a lot. He canโt walk yet & too heavy to carry around. And when I stroll him around, I notice that Hong Kong is not wheel-chair/stroller friendly at all. Pavements donโt have a natural curve to enable u to go straight & so u canโt move
I actually havenโt seen any wheel chair around Hong Kong unless it is being pushed by someone & just on a few roads where this is possible.
Accessibility is limited & canโt tell u how excited I get when I see a ramp.
But my angst is a sliver of what disabled people face.
Good morning! Shall we talk about US Q4 GDP? It was gangbuster at 5.5% YoY (we use this to compare to Asian countries) or this is what Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Nominal GDP grew 11.7%YoY and so US nominal GDP expanded 10.2% in 2021.
Fed is still doing QE & rates are close to zero.๐
I compare the quarterly %YoY chart here of the US nominal, US real and China real GDP. Note that as China decelerates towards 4% in Q4, US GDP accelerated to 5.5%.
Last year, the US grew 5.7% in 2021 vs 2020 (which fell -3.4% vs 2019) so a lot of it is making up for lost time.
US nominal GDP was USD22.99trn or USD23trn (good number to remember so when people say this is X% of GDP). And so it added 2.1trn or 10% in 2021 to total 23trn by end of the year.
Now what does that say about 2022? If consensus is right, going to be about 25trn by end of this yr
This report by @business is just great! Congress ownership of tech makes tech regulations awkward! Guess who owns a ton of tech? @SpeakerPelosi
And will she regulate? So far, she's not keen to! She doesn't want to regulate tech. We wonder why...
>100 million dollars invested๐ค
Asked by reporters whether she should regulate tech, she responded, "We are a free-market economy." And she hated the idea.
I wonder why? >100 million dollars at stake for her
Congressional trading persists!!! Yes, persists! This is a person that has been around in government since the 1980s and is seeking re-election at 81 years old whose family own >100 million dollars in tech.
Do we have a conflict of interest here? Do we? Hmm