Key takeaway from listening to Neil Ferguson @neil_ferguson @imperial_JDIEA talking to @GregClarkMP Commons science cmme
- Big shift to suppression happened earlier ths month when it became clear that number of critical #COVID19 patient that would need ventilation DOUBLED /1
- Big shift to suppression happened earlier ths month when it became clear that number of critical #COVID19 patient that would need ventilation DOUBLED /1
@neil_ferguson @GregClarkMP - estimates the number of deaths at around 20,000 if current strategy is applied fully (FWIW health professionals I know think this optimistic) /3
@neil_ferguson @GregClarkMP - says (with caveats) that "nationally" ICU capacity should just about meet need, with some parts of uK facing high stress.
- Initial estimates from 8x demand v capacity; shrunk to 3x ...nut now with NHS surge etc we might just get there. BUT.... /4
- Initial estimates from 8x demand v capacity; shrunk to 3x ...nut now with NHS surge etc we might just get there. BUT.... /4
@neil_ferguson @GregClarkMP - In LONDON health professionals I'm talking to say that their modelling, extrapolating from Ferguson, suggests London will be overwhelmed "by middle of next week". Obviously this is a predictions game. But the ExCel points to concerns here. /5
@neil_ferguson @GregClarkMP Ferguson pours cold water on @sunetragupta paper that suggested infection rates/herd immunity may be much further advance than believed - the paper that caused fuss/optimism surge y'day - here /6
@neil_ferguson @GregClarkMP @SunetraGupta Says that Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) considered lots of this modelling.
Makes point that in any case it doesnt change govt strategy/response to avoid large numbers of deaths immediately /7
Makes point that in any case it doesnt change govt strategy/response to avoid large numbers of deaths immediately /7
@neil_ferguson @GregClarkMP @SunetraGupta There is transmission everywhere, but ther are "hot spots" around country - for EG Notts, Derby - probably because of random earlier 'seeding' - ie infected people coming from abroad earlier than others. /8
@neil_ferguson @GregClarkMP @SunetraGupta EU epidemic growth "faster than expected" from China data, says Prof Ferguson.
So revising up estimates of reproduction number from 2.5 to 3.0....hence tougher self-isolation measures this week. /9
So revising up estimates of reproduction number from 2.5 to 3.0....hence tougher self-isolation measures this week. /9
That's it from @neil_ferguson who was giving evidence despite not being 100 per cent recovered from the coronavirus himself. 10/ENDS
