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THREAD: What is the #COVID19 "business as usual"?

Most #COVID19 research seems to use a "no policy" counterfactual & compare with various mitigation measures.

"...40 million deaths if left unchecked"

This is very similar to climate scenarios...

imperial.ac.uk/news/196496/co…
2. Over the summer of 2019, @MLiebreich kicked off a debate about RCP8.5, the high-end worst-case "no policy" climate scenario.

He argued it was completely unrealistic, bollox in fact, because we are heading in another direction already.

about.bnef.com/blog/in-climat…
3. @hausfath & I wrote a @NatureNews commentary, arguing that we should focus on where we are headed with existing & coming policies, technology change, etc.

We currently have climate policies in place, so "no policy" scenarios are increasingly abstract.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
4. But the same is also true for #COVID19.

Countries have a variety of policies in place now, so does it make sense to talk about "no policy" disaster scenarios? Should analysis be based on current policies & changes to that?

(@neil_ferguson thoughts?)
5. I have no idea of the history of scenarios or forecasts in epidemiology. The issues seem much the same as in climate, but the timescales completely different which might make some arguments quite different.

@RogerPielkeJr, you ever looked into this?
6. For a history of the RCP8.5 debate see @PietroMonticone pitmonticone.github.io/rcp85-debate/d…

& @CarbonBrief carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-…

& @TransitionShow podcasts 112, 116, 117 via @chrisnelder

& lots on Google.

/end
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
@g_kallis @KHayhoe @ryankatzrosene I missed the IMF graph (where?). On the IMF, my colleague did a graph on how the IMF has constantly revised down GDP figures (the start of each line is the first estimate of GDP growth in the given year, each dot subsequent revisions (biannual).
folk.uio.no/roberan/t/GDP_…
@g_kallis @KHayhoe @ryankatzrosene With the GFC, there was a bounce back to trend (for CO2), but the lower growth since 2010 or so could be (partially) due to the lower GDP growth. I think IMF attributes the lower growth (previous figure) to the GFC. Other crises have had a loss of output (ref your other tweets)
@g_kallis @KHayhoe @ryankatzrosene In any case, this crisis is going to be somewhat different to others. It looks like a much harder hit & may have consequences which linger for many years (even if corona is under control by end 2020). There will be a rebound of sorts, but whether it gets us back on trend???
Read 4 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
1. A #COVID19 drop in CO₂ emissions is “as if we went back in time & emitted the same amount we were a few years ago — which was already too much. In the grand scheme of things, it really makes no difference” @wang_seaver

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
2. “Even if there is a decline in emissions in 2020, let’s say 10% or 20%, it’s not negligible, it’s important, but from a climate point of view, it would be a small dent if emissions go back to pre-COVID-19 crisis levels in 2021,” @PFriedling
3. “I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 5% or more drop in carbon dioxide emissions this year, something not seen since the end of World War Two. Neither the fall of the Soviet Union nor the various oil ... crises ... have affected emissions the way this crisis is” Rob Jackson
Read 5 tweets
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Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
THREAD: The role of politics when investing in a green transition.

Lessons from my $600m gamble on renewables: ‘I am poorer but wiser, yet my analysis 15 years ago was correct: climate change is the major challenge to humanity’

ft.com/content/f9ba8d…
2. "It is 15 years since I sold out of my interests in the oil industry and invested instead in renewables. For me, the energy transition has been personal — sometimes financially costly — but it’s a journey I am glad I have made."
3. "I decided to sell my oil-related businesses from 2001 to 2008 [employing ~5000 people] and invest the proceeds of $600m in renewables. My aim was, as a citizen, to help save the world. But, as a businessman, I also intended to make a profit."
Read 8 tweets

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