A thread on the prospects of an oil patch bailout:
We can’t forget that the oil patch & its lobbyists have consistently resisted & fought fair & robust #climateaction policies. They are now seizing on #COVIDCanada to argue for delay or dilution of these policies. 1/ #cdnpoli
The @IEA makes the case that the oil & gas sector can & must play a critical role to play in #EnergyTransitioniea.org/reports/the-oi… (I’m convinced in theory, but skeptical based on evidence & experience to date).
So any federal bailout MUST have strings attached that compel 2/
…or coerce recipients to do much more to cut their pollution. We need to shift from a mantra of “no barrel left behind” to one in which no oil worker or region is left behind as we reorient and rebuild our energy sector with a focus on clean energy. 3/
The good news? This can be done in ways that leverage the oil patch’s core competencies (drilling for geothermal, petrochemistry) toward new products, from carbon fibre to lithium to hydrogen. medium.com/@EnergyFutures… Focus on new value, not new volume. 4/
The stark reality is that Canada’s traditionally strong oil and gas sector is confronted with both cyclical and structural change. It will never return to its halcyon boom days of the early 2000s. While it may be tempting to try to rebuild the past, 5/
we must be realistic and build for the future that’s clearly in front of us. As @tomrand writes in his new book, The Case for Climate Capitalism, “looking in the rearview mirror is not the best way to gauge where you’re going.” 6/
The @IEA has noted “The coronavirus crisis is already doing significant damage around the world. Rather than compounding the tragedy by allowing it to hinder clean energy transitions, we need to seize the opportunity to help accelerate them.” iea.org/commentaries/p… 7/
Putting clean energy at the heart of stimulus & recovery plans is essential. That doesn’t preclude help to the oil patch & its workers, but it must shape it. Doing so will do far more to support the patch and the provinces who have come to rely upon it than a BAU bailout. 8/8
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This piece by @merransmith & Mark Zacharias raises important Qs about possible opportunity costs of more LNG in BC: how we best use our clean electricity. vancouversun.com/opinion/mark-z… It's not an argument against electrifying any additional LNG (incl a possible 2nd phase 1/ #bcpoli
@merransmith of LNG Canada), which would be essential to having any hope of achieving the province's climate targets, but rather raises the Q of whether BC cld do this AND electrify other industries, not to mention heat for buildings & a rapidly growing # of EVs. We will only be able to 2/
@merransmith build so much new electricity so fast - what is its highest value use recognizing electrification can reduce emissions & energy costs & support economic dev't?
A possible hierarchy could look like: 1) Meet the needs of BCians & biz/industries that are increasingly choosing to 3/
"CAPP must do a much better job of talking to the investment community about its own net-zero goals, & the industry’s swath of investments in clean & emissions-reducing technologies.”
The problem isn’t the storytelling, it’s the story.
Let’s start with net zero goals. 1/ #cdnpoli
None of CAPP’s members have goals aligned with the Net Zero Standard for Oil & Gas, which is backed by >20 global investors with ~$10 trillion of assets under management. greenbiz.com/article/whats-…
Why not? They refuse to include the pollution from burning their product.
2/
How about investments in clean & emissions-reducing tech?
Don’t just give us dollar numbers, put it in context.
IEA estimates this will only account for ~5% of upstream spending in 2022 (mostly thanks to European co’s)—95% to sustaining & increasing fossil fuel production. 3/
Yes! —> "Canada needs a new breed of corporate champion, & clean energy is the place to look” But I’d expand the definition of “clean energy” beyond renewables to include efficiency & zero emission end use technologies. We already have champions, but... 1/ theglobeandmail.com/business/artic…
The only way hydrogen might serve as anything other than a short-lived “lifeline” for O&G in Canada is if there is laser-like focus on producing the cleanest H in the world. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Slapping carbon capture & storage on SMR (“blue”) hydrogen isn’t... 1/ #cdnpoli
…& transportation emissions (steel, heavy-duty trucks, shipping and cement) forbes.com/sites/mikescot… & we are well-positioned to be a significant exporter. belfercenter.org/sites/default/… How big is the opportunity? IHS Markit: "The greater the degree of a decarbonization...” 3/
A timely #ResilientRecovery piece. It’s notable how Europeans (Germans especially) are considering their stimulus/recovery plans: “The decision on what policies to support shouldn’t be purely based on deep economic analysis, but it should also take into account …" 1/
“...future trajectories and needs.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Relative to 2008-09, “This time there’s one big opportunity and one big enabler: The opportunity is to build competitive advantage in new industries; the enabler is cheap debt.” 2/
It’s critical to note that just throwing $ at hydrogen would fail. The fundamental challenge rests with the fact that to enable hydrogen requires systems-planning (producing, moving and using it) & new regulatory frameworks to accommodate a new energy commodity. We have… 3/
Well this is a demonstrably bad take. There are a multitude of ways—other than raising the price on carbon pollution—in which the gov’t can deliver a green recovery without micromanaging “winning” technologies. Contrarianism for the sake of contrarianism is just lazy. 1/ #cdnpoli
Building codes set energy performance benchmarks. Ditto vehicle emission standards. But gov’t, through stimulus, can enable more retrofits and more clean vehicle sales. The same goes for various industrial sectors—cement, steel, etc. Nobody is suggesting picking specific tech. 2/
Looking at recovery strictly through a lens of job creation, a green recovery delivers more effectively. With the co-benefit of reduced pollution—helping fight climate & reducing healthcare costs. See: smithschool.ox.ac.uk/publications/w… & mckinsey.com/business-funct… 3/