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A masterful deconstruction: the alarm bells were ringing, but no one, particularly @POTUS, was listening
theguardian.com/us-news/2020/a…
by @Edpilkington @guardian #COVID19
Along w/ @naomioreskes, @jeremykonyndyk, and @tomaspueyo, my input: “This will be regarded as the worst public health disaster in America in a century...The root cause of the disaster was the lack of readiness to understand where, how and when the disease was spreading.”
"And yet, it took 70 days from that initial notification for Trump to treat the coronavirus not as a distant threat or harmless flu strain well under control, but as a lethal force that...was poised to kill tens of thousands of citizens."
washingtonpost.com/national-secur… @yabutaleb7
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
April 7th outlook for #COVID19 fatality curves:
1. The US flattening is easily seen now, but tops the chart and is headed towards 2,000/day
2. New York shows the same story compared with the other key regions and US states
ft.com/coronavirus-la…
If we're "lucky" the next 40 days for the US curve (dashed line) may look like this, with a long shoulder/plateau phase (due to wide spread, millions of confirmed cases) and very gradual descent
A couple of other comments on this regional graph
—Washington state's increased slope is quite concerning and it's a trend over ~ days
—New Jersey took a turn for the worse
(whether either is related to the "weekend" data delay effect is unclear)
Read 3 tweets
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
I recently wrote a bit about the "Front End" & "Back End" looking at other countries (S Korea, Singapore). It looks like going forward the US is facing a "Table Mountain" w/ long plateau/shoulder. Very difficult descent/off-ramp with no exit-strategy
I wouldn't want to use the photo of Table Mountain (Capetown) since it's beautiful and what we're going to experience as the world's #COVID19 epicenter is anything but that
Just like our smartphones give us a traffic maps with no effort, wearable digital signals from people across the country can help us plan the descent (aka "reopening"). That's why this is #1 of my recent recommendations
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Eric Topol
@EricTopol
What flattening of the US fatality curve looks like
April 7th
graph via @BMcNoldy
1/3
But the US doesn't fit on the death curve, log-scale
The only country to exceed the 1000 threshold
@OurWorldInData April 7th
2/3
The flattening of death curves is now seen across nearly all US regions, with increased doubling times
nytimes.com/interactive/20… @jshkatz @UpshotNYT @nytgraphics
3/3
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