Thread by @page_eco

With just 107 new cases today, Australia’s rate of growth has fallen below 2%.
THREAD about the possible reasons this decrease has been so fast.

The growth of cases has always been low in Australia. The first case was on the 25th January (vs 21st in the the USA). Then for several weeks the epidemic only progressed slowly. It picked up pace in March, but never reached the levels of other countries (30% and above).

Is it due to tough policies?
No. Beside a very early ban on travel from China, Australia has not taken harsher measures than other countries. And international comparisons do not suggest a greater change in social behaviour in Australia.

A few days ago, I suggested two possible factors specific to Australia: lower density in urban centres and higher temperature (summer/autumn in the Southern Hemisphere).

Density is a reasonable factor and the absence of community transmission in the capital Canberra (very low density) goes in that direction.

https://twitter.com/petesivey/status/1246952389120163840

In the US, the analyses below found more deaths in colder and denser places. One possible explanation could be the presence of more infections in these places.

https://twitter.com/jedkolko/status/1246834530490535937

The higher rates of growth in Australia in March show that even if low density and high temperature may play a role, they cannot prevent the epidemic without mitigating policies.

The recent growth of cases in Singapore shows ,in particular, that high temperatures are not enough.

So Australia may benefit from factors helping to limit the epidemic. With the respect of social distancing guidelines, the “suppression” of the epidemic now seems a credible goal.

Nonetheless life won’t be back to normal soon. There will be no footy for some time.
END