Thread by @page_eco

Australia has been remarkably successful at slowing down infections over the last few days. Today there were only 4% new confirmed cases!

THREAD about possible causes and what it means for other countries.

First: Is it just an artificial pattern following the closing of the borders? Does the end of new cases arriving from abroad masks a high rate of local cases?
No, the local rate of growth is small and decreasing too.

Second: Is it a case of lack of testing?
No, Australia has one of the highest rates of tests per capita in the World.
covid19data.com.au/testing

Here are two possible factors:
First, social distancing is easier in Australia where the population density is relatively low. Only 10% of Australians live in flats vs 20% in the US and 40% in Europe. It is therefore easier for households to self-isolate.

Second, the most important factor may be the weather. It was summer in Jan-Feb, and it is still warm in Australia.
Last week, a study of the potential seasonality of COVID-19 has found that outbreaks are concentrated where temperatures are around 5C/41F.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

If so, with social distancing in place, Australia may have at the moment naturally lower infection rates than Northern Hemisphere countries.

That would be good news for countries in the Northern Hemisphere as the temperatures are set to warm up over the next few weeks.

END

cc @COVID_Australia