Thread by @ASlavitt

Update COVID April 6: I spent much of the day checking in first hand if the curve is really flattening.

Got a science update, looked at risk factors. We launched a new service to support front line health care workers.

Talking to Asia, thread about an hour. 1/

In many ways today is the day we’ve been waiting for: we are between 2 and 3 weeks out from when the country went on lockdown.

The big question is what is happening to the growth in new cases? I decided to try to find out. 2/

The best way to find out is to look at data. And our national data showed that right on time, our growth rate in new cases has slowed. 3/

(The very good people are Nephron Research who compiles data from the WHO, from the COVID Tracking Project and other places agreed to share their daily results with me for this thread. Thank you.) 3/

WARNING: slight buzzkill tweet.

Data people might say “great, one in a row”.

And cases are still growing exponentially.

30,000 new cases/day is a lot.

And it COULD mean a day of lower testing not fewer cases (womp wom)

And testing is still a big issue, but...4/

We’ve gone from doubling every 3 days or so to doubling every 6 or 7 at least in large part due to the #StayHome measures we put in place.

Look at the states with the most cases and the slowdown that occurred after lockdown. 6/

I wanted to make some calls on the ground to each of Therese states to see if what the data was saying is what they are seeing and feeling on the ground. So I did. 7/

When California had about 1000 cases they moved aggressively to lock things down. They had had a death. People thought they were being rash.

When NY had 1000 confirmed cases, they waited another week to shut things down. Mayor deBlasio suggested people enjoy another night out.8/

Can that be explained because NY has tested way more people? (They have.)

But if you look at hospitalizations, it also shows a big difference. 9/

During that week in NY, some people saw what was happening.

@CoreyinNYC was worried. Calling for bars & restaurants to shut down. He connected with me at 2 am because he saw what was happening.

That week cost New Yorkers dearly. 10/

On Saturday March 7, I sent a 2 page note to every governor. New York had 105 cases, California 88.

Note my first point. It took 10 days for California to act— they are now over 10,000. Another 3 for California. They are now over 100,000. 11/

It took Trump until he had a friend in a Coma. 12/

Ppl in California reported to me that cases were still growing but the clip was manageable & hospital capacity was holding up in many counties.

New York was seeing a flattening, but at a level that requires a ship, a Javits Center & more providers than they have. 13/

Detroit same boat as NY scaled down. 14/

New Orleans also seems to be flattening. Oschner, the biggest system, seemed to have done very good forward planning. Other parts of the system scrambling. 15/

(Slide 11 should say another 3 for NY.). But it wasn’t 3 days. It was 6, given they had more cases than CA. 16/

Let’s go to testing. (And apologies that today is chart and data heavy. But if the Federal government presented data simply and comsistently every day, others wouldn’t need to). 17/

Aside: I think it looks arrogant to show a letter I sent to the governors in early March. My point is not that I was clairvoyant. I’m no scientist. Lots of people saw it before then.

I just wanted to put something actionable for them. I only talked to 5 or 6 of them.18/

In most places we are only testing front line health care workers, or people in the hospital. That explains why the positive rate is increasing from 10-20% since testing started to ramp. 19/

This implies that we have a much higher case count & a larger number of asymptomatic people. We produce about 1 million tests/week, but we’re not getting that many results. We have big backlogs.

People are making homegrown reagents. We entered the global market late. 20/

Optimists say the flattening around the world & the potential beginning in the US (where it took us 5 days longer because our measures are more porous) is because we have higher herd immunity than we think. There’s some evidence.
But even in the best case, there’s not enough.21/

We need to increase the capacity of testing to put ourselves in a position to not just flatten the curve but do what the Asian countries have— where we can track & contain.

Our mortality rate is higher because of a combination of the lag & possibly tightening our testing.22/

What we don’t understand is why certain people get sicker than others.

-There is some evidence around body ache symptoms & hemoglobin
-There is data which shows male fatalities are 3:1 men to women
-And there is early data that there racial disparities are at work. 23/

I saw a report that 70% of the deaths in New Orleans are African Americans. African Americans are 32% of th population.

It will be a dark stain on an already tragic period if people of color die at a higher rate. A stain on all of us. 24/

Meanwhile science has a multi-pronged approach:

The FDA approved is first anti-body test.

It’s next and highest priority must be to accelerate the development of early-acting therapies.

The Gates Foundarion is funding vaccine development to speed the manufacture to market 25/

A Senator I spoke to today reminded me that states can allow SNAP benefits to be used at local restaurants.

California has. Others need to. 26/

I feel bad putting the next announcement next when most people have quit because it’s so important & can be so powerful. 27/

Announcing the launch of #frontlinefamily.

Frontline family is a service from all of US to those health care workers on the front line. 28/

whileathome.org/frontline-work…

Here are some of the great things you can do.

Get them equipment, give them access to wellness services, food, child care, and lots of local things. 29/

So if you search the state of Texas, you can see various services— how to get medical supplies & free child care.

All of this is on the whileathome.com platform intended to bring you the resources you need launched all of a week ago. 30/

I’m over my limit. Damn. And not a a lot of good jokes today. You’re welcome.

Please subscribe and listen to my podcasts for 33% Churchill, 33% Mr. Rodgers, and 33% Dad jokes. Somehow we made the top. Pretty sure it’s the Dad jokes. /end

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-…

Correction— tweet 24 was Louisiana, not New Orleans. Since most of the deaths are in NOLA, the disparities may not be as high as indicated at this point. Apologies. We must still watch for this critical issue.