I've been making analyses of this global health crisis #COVID19 for 3 weeks now. First, on a daily basis. More recently, every other day. I've decided to do it every four days, for the reason I explain below. Here, my analysis of today (8/04) in 4 longer points (cc: @jmapontem). 
1. The total number of reported infected people reaches today the 1.5 million (with 78,000 new cases)! The death toll of today is 6,300, reaching a total number of 88,300.
It has been a very bad day globally. We have a very large number of infected people, with a record in the global growing rate, as well as a record in the new deaths. As shown in the table, with the exception of April 5 (Sunday effect) the death toll is bigger every day.
USA is the main contributor now to the number of infections (427,000) and the new deaths (1,827), replacing Italy and Spain in the leading position of the extension of this epidemic. Despite that some charts show that USA might be also plateauing, I don't see that in the numbers
Let's remember that this is a global epidemic and that everyone is affected by it. Now it's the US the country that concentrates most of the suffering in absolute terms. But even if Italy and Spain are hopefully improving, they still suffer a lot.
Germany, France, Iran and the UK have had a good day in terms of new infections (growing below 10%). The same applies to the rest of European countries and Canada. But the UK has had a terrible day in new deaths, with almost 1,000 more.
It's been a bad day, however, for Turkey, Brazil, Russia and Peru. Turkey and the UK will join soon the club of countries that have beaten China in the number of cases (and the UK has already had twice as many deaths). With Brazil, Russia and India following their steps.
2. The reasons why I'll go from one analysis every other day to one every four days are this. First, I think we are keeping too fascinated by the numbers, charts and rankings, when data is simply too unreliable and dirty to make thorough analyses.
In the era of the society of information, I have to blame most countries in the world for being very little transparent and very little reliable regarding the data they provide. We know that the number of confirmed infected people is necessarily lower than the real number.
That's impossible to avoid since we can't test everybody every week to update the statistics. But I expected more clarity and rigor regarding the number of deaths (which remains highly dubious in most countries) and the number of tests done. It's unacceptable that governments
have hidden this information to their population. The number of deaths we'll finally know it at least in democratic countries since governments won't dare to manipulate the total number of deaths per month, and we'll be able to compare March 2020 with the last Marches and get it
And it's proving impossible to get reliable data on COVID19 patients being hospitalized and being in ICUs for many countries, despite the crucial importance of that data. If we have been saying for weeks, once and again, that the important goal is "to flat the curve", basically..
in order to preserve our health system from collapse, we should know more and better about how such health system is doing. Anyway, data is too unreliable, and we should refrain from wasting too much time looking at these numbers every day.
The second reason to slow down the pace of our analyses of data is that more than looking at daily variations, we should be aware of longer trends that can neutralize things like the so-called "Sunday effect" or just arbitrary variations in testing, and other causes.
It's much more important to keep an eye on the bigger picture and be able to provide deeper analysis, also of the consequences of what we are all suffering, and of possible solutions and ways out for those countries who are ahead off. Thus, I will keep writing these long threads
every four days or so, being compatible with tweeting more often with some highlights or more urgent comments.
3. Today I'd like to tell something about how Italy and Spain are plateauing and what this means. In my last thread I explained that they are having lower growth rates
3. Today I'd like to tell something about how Italy and Spain are plateauing and what this means. In my last thread I explained that they are having lower growth rates
This is obviously good news. And it means that they have peaked in these terms: in the growing rate. But it doesn't imply yet that they've peaked in the number of active cases, which is what it would really help their health systems, and indirectly save more lives.
In order to find themselves really improving it's necessary that states have more people getting recovered every day than the number of new infections. This will produce a decline in the number of active cases, leaving aside the number of deaths. Spain has 48,000 people recovered
But it keeps having more than 85,000 active cases, many of which require hospitalization and continue collapsing our hospitals. Same with Italy, where for some reason there are way less people recovered. But look at the global data. The gap between new cases and recoveries grows
5. Today Donald Trump has attacked the @WHO and has threaten with withdrawing their economic contribution. But it0s been the US previous withdrawals one of the causes of why the WHO became so inoperative and weak! It's true that they could do more.
But today I blame you, Pres. Trump, for a disastrous response to this crisis, and for the lack of global leadership that I would have expected from a president of the US. Shame on you! The richest countries and also the WHO should be thinking in how to help the poorest countries
My final everyday message: we are living only the beginning of very dreadful times for most human beings. This is a huge health (and soon economic and cultural) crisis. But, as any other crisis, it comes with opportunities for creating a better world.
We must all keep united, help each other, especially those who need it more desperately, the most vulnerable. A new human era is coming. And this new era will be characterized, more than any other before, by LOVE and HOPE. That I know. And that is what I can tell YOU.
