Thread by @faisalislam

Coming up on #BBCNewsSix & #BBCNewsTen what keeping wheels of industry turning during a global pandemic looks like - a socially distanced production line at UK bike manufacturer Brompton..
As BBC forecast survey shows extraordinary immediate hit to UK GDP from pandemic/shutdowns:

NEW:
average fall in UK GDP forecast in this quarter (Q2) by top economists is ... -14%...

Best - -7.5%, worst -24%

having before pandemic been forecast by same at -0.2% on avg, and last month OBR projected (not taking CV into account) at +0.4%

A rebound anticipated later..

No decimal point mistake there, minus fourteen percent, - one-seventh of UK GDP switched off, fractions of the economy, not fractions of a per cent...my understanding is such numbers, the larger ones, come as no surprise to Government.

Question is how much rebound and when?

had to stretch beyond modern records to find decline even comparable - and you get to economic historians Solomou & Mitchell’s stats for 1920-21 at beginning of 1920s Depression

repeat of that is NOT what these economists predict, some sort of quick rebound.. but when? How much?

We also asked 14 of the economists what their forecast for 2020 Annual growth would be - and average was -7.5% - so worse than 2008 financial crisis.

ranged from -4% to 12%.

But that clearly depends on the underlying pandemic, and the effective lifting of lockdowns etc.

NEW: BoE Financial Policy Committee to update Financial Stability Report same day as new economic forecasts... says “economic activity was reducing v sharply. Consistent with sharp deterioration in econ outlook, have been very significant falls in range of financial asset prices”

Full Story: - Economist survey points to sharpest quarterly economic falls in a century - average of 14% decline expected in Q2 as a result of pandemic and shutdowns... a rebound expected afterwards, but not yet clear how much and when...

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

So we had 14/21 independent economists surveyed by Treasury for a pre pandemic Q2 number - another 3 have rightly told us their numbers - which keeps the average the same at -14%.

E&Y Item Club say Q2 at -13%
CEBR said almost a fortnight ago -15%
Niesr - -15 to -25%

Thats 17/21