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1) Are we bending/flattening the curve? In Germany, new cases have started to stagnate overall (left). But if we differentiate them by age, it's a different story: New cases only stagnate for people below 80, but for the high-risk group 80+, they are growing rapidly (right).
2) Note that all new cases are normalized per 100,000 population. There are several potential explanations for this pattern, but I'm wondering if the pattern is there in other countries, too. I haven't found new cases by age for Italy, Spain, Austria, US...maybe someone can help?
3) For now, it means I'm not relaxing because we're bending the curve overall. If isolation and protection of the elderly fails, we will have more deaths ahead of us, and the data doesn't look promising.
4) Deutsch: Flachen wir die Kurve wirklich ab? Insgesamt stagnieren die Neuinfektionen, aber für die älteste Gruppe 80+ steigen sie immer noch an. Es gibt mehrere mögliche Gründe dafür, aber die Entwicklung sollte uns nicht in falsche Sicherheit wiegen. Wie sieht es woanders aus?
👆 When we talk about bending/flattening the curve, we need to know whether it's flattening also for the high-risk demographic groups. @cmyeaton @balajis @firefoxx66 @EricTopol @CT_Bergstrom @CiesekSandra @mlipsitch @ScottGottliebMD @Noahpinion @kakape @ashishkjha @AdamJKucharski
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