Thread by @OilSheppard

The numbers show why Saudi Arabia’s attempt to blame Mexico over 300k b/d might not fly in US

S.Arabia oil output in February = ~9.8m b/d

S.Arabia current output = ~12.3m b/d (up 2.5m b/d)

S.Arabia’s new baseline for calculating Opec+ deal = 11m b/d (1.2m > Feb output)

#OOTT

The baseline adjustment for Saudi Arabia up to 11m - which other Opec+ members agreed to - still means they’re cutting almost 1m b/d less than if they hadn’t launched the price war.

Based off on 9.8m b/d a 23% cut would have meant going down to 7.5m, not 8.5m b/d #OOTT

And while there’s a lot of noise around baselines and fluctuations in production, Saudis output has averaged closer to 9.8m b/d in the past few years than it has to 11m #OOTT

So at a time of global crisis, when Opec+ has agreed its biggest ever cut it and won unprecedented backing from the G20, you can see why some officials both inside and outside the group are finding it frustrating to still be fighting over Mexico’s disputed 300k b/d #OOTT

It’s hard to see essentially winning an extra 1m b/d of production headroom off the back of a (possibly) short-lived supply surge - and having the rest of Opec+ accept it - as a bad deal for Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom’s focus on principle of ‘everyone must do their bit’... #OOTT

... is being met with a few knowing smiles.

Pressure might increase on Saudi Arabia to get it done today, whatever Mexico eventually decides #OOTT