Is this a sick joke? @FaceTheNation had on Christopher Murray today of IHME who warned against opening by May 1st. This guy’s model was endlessly way off to the dark side a mere week out of given dates, and CBS does not challenge him on this? Crazy! @margbrennan Please read:
.@margbrennan @CBS_Herridge @MajorCBS Thursday March 26 when NY had only 1,583 Corona in the ICU, Murray expected it to reach 10,900 within a week! The week came (Thursday 4/2) and NY was only at 3,731. Despite being so WAY off and so close to the date, Murray’s “model”
pushed apex down a week and now expected almost 12K ICUs by April 9. This would mean an ICU jump of almost 1,200 a day when we came off another week of ICU rising only 300+ a day. He destroys 16 million jobs in 3 weeks and 330 mm lives are on hold yet he is not grilled on this?
.@margbrennan Sun April 5 (a week ago), Murray’s “model” still said NY will need almost 12K ICUs within days despite the ICU count being only at 4,500. Finally Mon April 6, his “updated” model showed a need of 6,664 ICUs by April 8. That’s expecting 2,100 new ICU’s in 2 days!
Not in a month. In TWO DAYS when we were doing less than 200 a day by then! Murray’s NY model shaped his nationwide model which Dr. Birx used. Remember her dramatic Murray-based charts two weeks ago? Those were rooted big time in Murray’s flawed numbers! If Obama, not Trump, were
POTUS, it would not be a few lone voices YELLING for weeks that Murray’s “models” are so obviously wrong to the dark side. Every “data” Journalist at every media outlet would be onto this; each getting 20K RTs daily. Murray would have been laughed out of town weeks ago; latest by
by April second (ten days ago), when his 10,900 “projection” from a week earlier (which made no sense to begin with) was proven wrong. He and anyone at the WH who advised using him would be unemployed by Fri April 3d when his “model” shamelessly pushed back its 10,900 projection
by a week and extended it to 12,000 (instead of Murray backing off then and admit that he is overshooting to the dark side). Dummy me did the math endlessly showing these models made no sense. By Sat April 3d, Obama would have opened the country and this nightmare would be done!
The US did not shutdown based on what we are seeing now; as dark as it is. The shutdowns were based on the overly doomsday “models” by Murray that were endlessly wrong a mere few days out; not just a month out to which you could have said “lockdowns worked better than thought.”
.@margbrennan Here is a key point: Murray’s expectation March 26 that the ICU count will EXPLODE from one day to the next and times over the recent daily count (to jump from 1,500 to 10,900 in a week), was based on street activity of 2-3 weeks earlier. Right? ICU’s happen
a good 2-3 weeks after exposure and infection. Well, 2-3 weeks before April 2nd, NY was largely still open yet despite this openness, the ICU count did not jump daily by anywhere close to what Murray projected. This means we know by how much the daily ICU count will rise if
NY goes back to early March. It’s about 300 a day; not 1,200+ a day that Murray projected! But Murray still speaks as if we don’t know how bad things can be if we open fully up. We know! It’s called late March ICU numbers; and they are a fraction of what he said it will be!
Cleaely, the policy fix is for NY to do more steps than early March (which was almost nothing. I mean Cuomo’s ban on events of 500 people was announced only Thursday March 12th). Push gloves/masks; discourage some activities; try to keep crowd sizes limited and at 50% capacity.
Am I too liberal here? Fine but we need to have a conversation on this. We can’t lockdown based on clown math which never materializes and then when we want to open up with restrictions we say “well, it will be very bad” based on math that for weeks were clearly a clown job.
The fact is that @margbrennan, Tapper, Todd et al would have all been on Murray’s case for a good two weeks now if not more with Obama as POTUS. But this is not happening. Instead they are pushing the sick lockdown to go on well into May. Whatever. I am talking to the four walls.
“Governors, health experts push back on Trump’s goal to reopen economy in May,” leads now Politico. With Obama as POTUS this convo would long be over because the exonomy would have been opened by a week ago or even earlier as explained above. We are being crushed for politics.
1/2 In late March, IHME expected that ICUs from an open economy will rise in NY by 1,200+ a day. It rose by about 300. IHME expected this at the time (late March) that ICUs were rising by 300 a day.
172 Fri 3/27
282 Sat
315 Sun
367 Mon
303 Tues
374 Wed 4/1/20
335/ Thur
172 Fri 3/27
282 Sat
315 Sun
367 Mon
303 Tues
374 Wed 4/1/20
335/ Thur
2/2 Since ICUs run 2-3 weeks behind exposure, NY’s late March ICU numbers were based on street activity of March 6-March 18. Well, NY was mostly fully open most of those days. IHME expected March 26 that NY will pop 1,200+ a day through April 2. It was a quarter this amount.
Again, Murray/IHME are not - what people think - in a secure place mathematically speaking by hiding behind the “could have been worse” claim because we saw how off they were with NY being mostly open. We also saw that weeks into a lockdown, Murray/IHME kept overshooting to the
dark side by a large margin; they did so regarding dates a mere few days away (not a month out), and they did so when there was enough public data to cut back those dark predictions on NY which shaped the nationwide model and shaped WH policy. Too bad for us Obama is not POTUS.
