Thread by @Barker4Grimsby

Will overall UK deaths rise as a result of the #coronavirus ? Measuring deaths from ALL causes is the only way to remove measurement bias. We can’t know #COVID19 deaths accurately because we can’t accurately attribute deaths to the disease... /1

#CoronaVirusUK #CoronaCrisisuk

... and we can’t measure denominators (symptomatic patients or infected people) accurately because the basis of diagnosis changes, we can’t be sure when symptoms prove COVID-19 and we can’t blood-test the whole population... /2

#COVID19 #CoronaVirus

... But if this thing is going to change our population, total deaths will rise. And if they don’t, it’s not.

So here goes. All graphs compare total deaths in a calendar week against average deaths for the equivalent week for the previous 5 years. /3

#COVID19 #CoronaVirus

National death rate just took a dramatic upturn.

In the week ending 3 April (data fresh out today), we would have expected to lose around ten thousand people. We lost SIXTEEN thousand. /4

#COVID19 #CoronaVirus #CoronaVirusUK #CoronaCrisisuk

These extra deaths are heavily biased towards the old.

•Among people in the top two age bands (75+), deaths are up by 60%.
•They’re up 55% for ages 45-64.
•There is no noticeable change below age 45. /5

#COVID19 #CoronaVirus #CoronaVirusUK #CoronaCrisisuk

The rise in deaths is particularly high for men.

Total male deaths up by:
•85+yrs old: about 75%
•75+ year olds: 80%
•45-64 yrs old: 65%
•Below age 45: no noticeable change. /6

#CoronaVirus #CoronaVirusUK #CoronaCrisisuk

(It turns out that #COVID19 is disproportionately hitting men more than most do. Three quarters of critical #CoronaVirus patients in hospital are male, cf critical cases of viral pneumonia in recent years, where only a bit over a half have been men.) /7

#COVID19 #coronavirusuk

Less dramatic age profile of deaths in females.

•Total female deaths up about 45% from age 45
•Within this age band, deaths are biased towards older females less than they are in men
•No noticeable change below age 45. /8

#CoronaVirus #CoronaVirusUK #CoronaCrisisuk

London now devastatingly hit; rest of the nation catching up.

•London has far and away the greatest increase in deaths. Wk ending 3 Apr saw *two and a half times* the avg number of Londoners dying in the same week over past 5 years... /9

#CoronaVirusUK #CoronaCrisisuk

All regions of England and Wales are now catching up.

•All now show increased deaths of 35-70% on a typical value for this calendar week.
•Last week, only London and South East showed changes above 10% of the previous year’s average /10

#CoronaVirusUK #CoronaCrisisuk

More analysis to follow shortly, including some telling early insights into what lies ahead of us, incl duration of crisis, impact on society.

Questions welcome. Follow for more. DMs open. /11 ENDS

#COVID19 #CoronaVirus #CoronaVirusUK #CoronaCrisisUK

I omitted to add the regional graph. Deaths of Londoners (purple line) just hit *two and a half times* the average deaths of the equivalent week in the past 5 years (purple dotted line).

#CoronaVirusUK #CoronaVirus #COVID19 #CoronaCrisisuk